ABSTRACT:We present an extended monthly and seasonal Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) from January 1851 to December 2015, which more than doubles the length of the existing published GBI series. We achieve this by homogenizing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c-based GBI and splicing it with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-based GBI. For the whole time period, there are significant decreases in GBI in autumn, October and November, and no significant monthly, seasonal or annual increases. More recently, since 1981 there are significant GBI increases in all seasons and annually, with the strongest monthly increases in July and August. A recent clustering of high GBI values is evident in summer, when 7 of the top 11 values in the last 165 years -including the two latest years 2014 and 2015 -occurred since 2007. Also, 2010 is the highest GBI year in the annual, spring, winter and December series but 2011 is the record low GBI value in the spring and April series. Moreover, since 1851 there have been significant increases in GBI variability in May and especially December. December has also shown a significant clustering of extreme high and low GBI values since 2001, mirroring a similar, recently identified phenomenon in the December North Atlantic Oscillation index, suggesting a related driving mechanism. We discuss changes in hemispheric circulation that are associated with high compared with low GBI conditions. Our GBI time series should be useful for climatologists and other scientists interested in aspects and impacts of Arctic variability and change.

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The potential of recent Arctic changes to influence hemispheric weather is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainty, as time series of potential linkages are short (,10 yr) and understanding involves the relative contribution of direct forcing by Arctic changes on a chaotic climatic system. A way forward is through further investigation of atmospheric dynamic mechanisms. During several exceptionally warm Arctic winters since 2007, sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas initiated eastward-propagating wave trains of high and low pressure. Anomalous high pressure east of the Ural Mountains advected Arctic air over central and eastern Asia, resulting in persistent cold spells. Blocking near Greenland related to low-level temperature anomalies led to northerly flow into eastern North America, inducing persistent cold periods. Potential Arctic connections in Europe are less clear. Variability in the North Pacific can reinforce downstream Arctic changes, and Arctic amplification can accentuate the impact of Pacific variability. The authors emphasize multiple linkage mechanisms that are regional, episodic, and based on amplification of existing jet stream wave patterns, which are the result of a combination of internal variability, lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies, and midlatitude teleconnections. The quantitative impact of Arctic change on midlatitude weather may not be resolved within the foreseeable future, yet new studies of the changing Arctic and subarctic low-frequency dynamics, together with additional Arctic observations, can contribute to improved skill in extended-range forecasts, as planned by the WMO Polar Prediction Project (PPP).

Abstract. Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models.

We present a homogenized Greenland blocking index (GBI) daily record from 1851 to 2015, therefore significantly extending our previously published monthly/seasonal GBI analysis. This new time series is analysed for evidence of changes in extreme events, and we investigate the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic precursors. We compare occurrences and changes in extreme events between our GBI record and a recently published, temporally similar daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) series, and use this comparison to test dynamic meteorology hypotheses relating negative NAO to Greenland blocking. We also compare daily GBI changes and extreme events with long‐running indices of England and Wales temperature and precipitation, to assess potential downstream effects of Greenland blocking on UK extreme weather events and climate change. In this extended analysis we show that there have been sustained periods of positive GBI during 1870–1900 and from the late 1990s to present. A clustering of extreme high GBI events since 2000 is not consistently reflected by a similar grouping of extreme low NAO events. Case studies of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes linked with extreme high and low daily GBI episodes are used to shed light on potential linkages between Greenland blocking and jet‐stream changes. Particularly noteworthy is a clustering of extreme high GBI events during mid‐October in 4 out of 5 years during 2002–2006, which we investigate from both cryospheric and dynamic meteorology perspectives. Supporting evidence suggests that these autumn extreme GBI episodes may have been influenced by regional sea‐ice anomalies off west Greenland but were probably largely forced by increases in Rossby‐wave train activity originating from the tropical Pacific. However, more generally our results indicate that high GBI winter anomalies are co‐located with sea‐ice anomalies, while there seems to be minimal influence of sea‐ice anomalies on the recent significant increase in summer GBI.

UK seasonal mean temperature and precipitation conditions are extremely variable from one year to the next but in the last decade have featured several cool, wet summers and mild, wet winters interspersed with some notable cold winter episodes. Jet stream variability is a major determinant of these fluctuations and is often represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Recent work has shown some evidence of promising predictability in the winter NAO from 1 to 2 months ahead, while summer predictability remains very limited. Although the phase and magnitude of the NAO influences total UK rainfall, there are regional variations which it does not explain. Here we examine the relationship between UK regional summer and winter precipitation and temperature and a range of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices. While the NAO shows a significant relationship with temperature in both seasons and summer rainfall over most of the UK, the picture in winter is more complicated, with other circulation indices such as the East Atlantic pattern explaining rainfall anomalies in southern England. Other indices also show significant relationships with precipitation in regions where the NAO does not. Because UK weather is determined by the interplay between different circulation indices, attention should be given to developing seasonal forecasts of other circulation indices to complement the NAO forecasts. We also find that some potential drivers of jet stream variability are significantly associated with UK temperature and rainfall variability, particularly in summer. This provides further scope for producing seasonal forecasts based directly on these drivers. Improved seasonal forecasts will be useful to a range of end users in agriculture, energy supply, transport and insurance industries and can be extended to other UK weather variables such as extreme rainfall events and storm frequency, and related metrics such as wind power capacity and solar energy.

We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing icesheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of $1.7 (4.4) C occurred from 1991-2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6-7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass-balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972-2018 period, each 1 C of summer warming corresponds to $(91) 116 GtÁyr −1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 GtÁyr −1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0-6.6 C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6

Polar front jet stream variability is responsible for instances of extreme weather and is crucial for regional climate change. The North Atlantic Polar Front jet stream is of particular significance to the heavily populated areas of western Europe and eastern North America as storm track variability, atmospheric modes of variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), temperature and rainfall are all intimately linked with jet stream changes. Although seasonal and interannual variability are often attributed to internal variability, there are several possible drivers of polar front jet stream changes that are reviewed in this study. Cryospheric effects from sea-ice extent and snow cover, oceanic effects from North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and tropical influences such as the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, and stratospheric effects due to stratospheric circulation variability, solar variability, volcanic eruptions and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation are all identified in the literature as factors that impact on the Atlantic Polar Front jet stream. These drivers of jet stream variability can oppose or reinforce one another, and there are some indications of possible nonlinear interactions between them. We also review the modelling of jet stream variability. While a consensus has now been reached that some observed drivers can be reproduced in climate models, we conclude that improved understanding of more recently identified drivers of the Atlantic extratropical jet stream is crucial for making progress in regional climate predictions on all timescales from months to decades ahead. © 2015 Royal Meteorological Society