Spatial Stochastic Simulation Offers Potential as a Quantitative Method for Pest Risk Analysis

Rafoss, Trond

doi:10.1111/1539-6924.00344

Cited by 33 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Diferentemente, os métodos quantitativos são baseados em modelos probabilísticos, e as probabilidades podem ser tratadas na forma de cadeia ou árvore linear de eventos (Griffin, 2012). Esses métodos são muito úteis para as avaliações de potencial de introdução (entrada e estabelecimento) e o potencial de dispersão de uma praga (Rafoss, 2003), mas, embora precisas, as ARPs puramente quantitativas são difíceis de serem realizadas, em razão da grande necessidade de dados, muitas vezes indisponíveis na literatura.…”

Section: Consolidação Das Metodologias De Análise De Risco De Pragasunclassified

Fundamentos biológicos, ferramentas operacionais e inovação em quarentena vegetal

Marques

Lopes-da-Silva

Gonzaga

et al. 2016

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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Resumo -A demanda por segurança alimentar e nutricional delimita modelos de intensificação da agricultura em que a prevenção de perdas na produção é essencial. O cenário de agricultura globalizada, o aumento das rotas de comércio e o deslocamento de pessoas e produtos maximiza o potencial de introduções inadvertidas de pragas em áreas indenes, colocando em risco os sistemas produtivos. A quarentena vegetal é apresentada como medida disciplinadora à movimentação de vegetais, para limitar a dispersão de pragas agrícolas. A vigilância preconiza a antecipação e reconhece a ameaça, privilegiando a acurácia e a eficiência do diagnóstico, a consolidação de metodologias de análise de risco de pragas e a evolução das ferramentas operacionais. Com apropriação de novas tecnologias, melhoria das estruturas fiscalizadoras e forte capacidade inovativa, esperam-se respostas aos desafios impostos à segurança da agricultura. Este trabalho aborda aspectos históricos relacionados às ações quarentenárias, ao arcabouço legal, à influência do comércio internacional, às ferramentas analíticas, às perspectivas de inovação e à qualificação da infraestrutura. O objetivo deste trabalho é contextualizar a importância do risco de introdução de novas pragas ante uma agricultura pujante e a intensificação do intercâmbio comercial. Analisa, igualmente, desafios para ações de quarentena vegetal, ao mesmo tempo em que alinha bases biológicas sobre as quais a regulação fitossanitária deve se sustentar, como subsídio para a formulação de dispositivos legais.Termos para indexação: defesa fitossanitária, intercâmbio de germoplasma vegetal, pragas agrícolas, quarentena, segurança alimentar. Biological fundamentals, operational tools, and innovation in plant quarantineAbstract -The demand toward food and nutritional security delimitates models for agricultural intensification, in which yield loss prevention is essential. The globalized agriculture scenario, the increase of trade routes, and the displacement of people and products maximize the potential of nondeliberate pest introductions in undamaged areas, endangering the production systems. Plant quarantine is presented as a measure to control plant product movement, in order to limit the dispersal of agricultural pests. Surveillance advocates the anticipation and recognizes the threat, focusing on the accuracy and efficiency of the diagnosis, on the consolidation of methods of pest risk analysis, and on the evolution of operational tools. Responses to the challenges posed to agriculture security are expected, considering the appropriation of new technologies, enhancement of inspectorate structures, and a strong, innovative capacity. This work approaches the historical aspects related to quarantine actions, legal framework, influence of international trade, analytical tools, innovation perspectives, and infrastructure qualification. The objective of this work is to contextualize the risk importance of introducing new pests, faced with a thriving agriculture and the intensification of commercial inte...

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Section: Consolidação Das Metodologias De Análise De Risco De Pragasunclassified

Fundamentos biológicos, ferramentas operacionais e inovação em quarentena vegetal

Marques

Lopes-da-Silva

Gonzaga

et al. 2016

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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“…The first group addresses the decision-support needs of policy makers by integrating established ecological models with economic management frameworks (Barbier, 2001;Cacho et al, 2008;Carrasco et al, 2010;Ceddia et al, 2009;Crepin et al, 2011;Epanchin-Niell et al, 2014;Hyder et al, 2008;Sharov and Liebhold, 1998). The second line of research has developed spatially explicit approaches using stochastic simulations that combine environmental variables and dissemination behaviors in order to characterize uncertainty in spread patterns over time (Carrasco et al, 2012;Epanchin-Niell and Hastings, 2010;Fernandes et al, 2014;Hastings et al, 2005;Meier et al, 2014;Rafoss, 2003;Touza et al, 2010;Yemshanov et al, 2009).…”

Section: The War Game Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A structured war-gaming framework for managing extreme risks

Liu

Aurambout

Villalta

et al. 2015

Ecological Economics

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“…Spatial stochastic models have been increasingly used for assessing risks of ecological invasions (Rafoss 2003, Cook et al 2007, Pitt et al 2009, Muirhead et al 2006, 2010. We applied a pathway model that used vector-based information stored in the NRRS database to predict movements of recreational travellers to federal campgrounds in the U.S., including cross-border visits from Canada.…”

Section: Pathway Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Yemshanov¹,

Koch²,

Ducey³

et al. 2013

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Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker.We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first-and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion. NeoBiotaDenys Yemshanov et al. / NeoBiota 18: 193-218 (2013) 194While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decisionmaking preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and outreach activities, which can be costly. Our results are especially important and useful given the huge number of camping trips that occur each year in the United States and Canada.

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Spatial Stochastic Simulation Offers Potential as a Quantitative Method for Pest Risk Analysis

Cited by 33 publications

References 28 publications

Fundamentos biológicos, ferramentas operacionais e inovação em quarentena vegetal

Fundamentos biológicos, ferramentas operacionais e inovação em quarentena vegetal

A structured war-gaming framework for managing extreme risks

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

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