Surrogate species approaches, including flagship, focal, keystone, indicator, and umbrella, are considered an effective means of conservation planning. For conservation biologists to apply surrogates with confidence, they must have some idea of the effectiveness of surrogates for the circumstances in which they will be applied. We reviewed tests of the effectiveness of surrogate species planning to see if research supports the development of generalized rules for (1) determining when and where surrogate species are an effective conservation tool and (2) how surrogate species should be selected such that the resulting conservation plan will effectively protect biodiversity or achieve other conservation goals. The context and methods of published studies were so diverse that we could not draw general conclusions about the spatial or temporal scales, or ecosystems or taxonomic groups for which surrogate species approaches will succeed. The science of surrogate species can progress by (1) establishing methods to compare diverse measures of effectiveness; (2) taking advantage of data-rich regions to examine the potential effectiveness of surrogate approaches; (3) incorporating spatial scale as an explanatory variable; (4) evaluating surrogate species approaches at broader temporal scales; (5) seeking patterns that will lead to hypothesis driven research; and (6) monitoring surrogate species and their target species.
: Acom production by oaks (Quercus spp.) is an important food resource for wildlife in many deciduous forests. Its role as a hard mast crop that can be either stored or used to build fat reserves for winter survival cannot be replaced by most other potential foods. Changes in forest management, introduced pests and pathogens, and increased deer populations have resulted in significant changes in the demography of oaks in eastern North America, as evident in Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Specifically, maples (Acer spp.) are replacing oaks in many forests through dominance of the younger age classes. These changes are not yet obvious in mast production but will take decades to reverse. Effective forest management for mast production is arguably one of the more important tasks facing wildlife professionals, yet receives scant attention by both public and private land managers. Public forests need to explicitly include mast production in their forest planning and reduce adversarial relationships over forest management. Market forces are driving commercial forests toward forest certification. Private forests compose 80% of our oak forests and are the hardest group to influence. States have not been able to effectively market forest plans and we recommend joining with advocacy groups more adept at motivating the public. Increased communication between wildlife and forestry professionals is needed through agency restructuring and joint meetings of professional agencies at the state level. Professional wildlife and forest managers are encouraged to make increased use of monitoring data and form a multiagency cooperative using a joint venture model, which has been successful for other organizations.
Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.
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