Soon, later, or ever? The impact of anomie and social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria (2002) and Hungary (2001)

Abstract

We use survey data from Bulgaria and Hungary to investigate the determinants of whether women intend to have a first or a second child and, if so, whether they intend to have the child within the ensuing 2 years or later. These determinants differ significantly by the order and timing of the intended birth. The variables used include measures of anomie and social capital and these appear to be among the factors that determine both whether to have a child and when. There is some evidence that these measures and economic factors are relatively more important in Bulgaria than in Hungary, and that ideational factors are more important in Hungary, particularly in the case of voluntary childlessness.

Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria

“…One crucial requirement is a certain temporal stability of intentions: the longer the intentions are Attitudes,Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control 443 not fulfilled, the less probable that the behaviour would occur, because the social environment around the individual may change. Hence, intentions become more meaningful when the period to their actual realisation is short and the time interval is specified (see also Philipov et al 2006;Schoen et al 1999). Closely connected to temporal stability of intentions is their level of certainty at the time of measurement.…”

“…Reher (1998), Micheli (2000) and Dalla Zuanna (2001) underline the importance of social networks characterised by strong family ties in shaping demographic choices in Southern Europe. Philipov et al (2006) discuss the impact of social capital on fertility intentions in Bulgaria and Hungary, and Bühler and Philipov (2005) give an extensive theoretical discussion on social capital related to social network and on its significance for the formation of fertility intentions in low fertility contexts (see also Bühler 2008).…”

“…Answering these key questions helps to shed light on the motivations behind the trends that have pushed fertility towards ''lowest-low'' levels in countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Billari and Kohler 2004;Kohler et al 2002;Sobotka 2004). In this article, we present the findings of a study on the determinants of fertility intentions in Bulgaria, with data from 2002, a year in which the total fertility rate had reached 1.21 children per woman (Bühler 2008;Koytcheva and Philipov 2008;Philipov and Jasilioniene 2008;Philipov et al 2006). …”

“…Life-course studies base on the social-psychological perspective of the TPB include Liefbroer and De Jong Gierveld (1993), on the choice between cohabitation and marriage; Abrams et al (1999) Schoen et al (1999) discuss the importance of the TPB and of the focus on intentions as the key variable to understand fertility decision-making. Closely related to this study are the articles by Liefbroer (2005), who analyses costs and benefits of having a child and subsequent behaviour, by Barber (2001), who examines the attitudes towards childbearing among those oriented towards other competing alternatives in one's life, by Philipov and colleagues, who study the role of anomie and social capital in shaping fertility intentions (Philipov et al 2006) and by Bühler (2008) on the value of children in a network-based perspective.…”

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

“…Also we have not discussed potentially important psychological factors operating at both societal and individual levels, such as how the degree of trust, insecurity, sense of control, and, more generally, fads and fashions related to childlessness or having children, influence fertility decisions. With the exception of economic uncertainty and the more specific case of anomie during the post-communist transition in Central and Eastern Europe (Philipov 2003, Philipov et al 2006), the literature is very limited and usually dated.…”