Socio-hydrological Framework of Farmer-Drought Feedback: Darfur as a Case Study

Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Musa, Ammar Ahmed; Sulieman, Hussein M.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-51856-5_27

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The existence of bounded rational behavior has been confirmed by studies on agricultural drought risk (e.g., Van Duinen et al, 2012;Gebrehiwot and van der Veen, 2015;Elagib et al, 2017), evidenced by low adoption of wells and irrigation measures among farmers, despite such measures being economically efficient (Ngigi et al, 2005b;Khisa et al, 2014b;Bouma et al, 2016;Wambua and Akuja, 2016). It has been suggested that farmers' adaptation decisions are influenced by a biased perception of risk and a lack of trust in their own control over drought risk (Murgor et al, 2013;Ochieng et al, 2016;Nkatha, 2017;Khisa, 2018;Van Valkengoed and Steg, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya

Wens

Veldkamp

Mwangi³

et al. 2020

Front. Water

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In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya

Wens

Veldkamp

Mwangi³

et al. 2020

Front. Water

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“…In this Overview, we add a third tier to the modeling framework, which accounts for the heterogeneous adaptive behaviors of interacting, bounded‐rational actors through an ABM approach (Malawska & Topping, ; Schlüter et al, ). In this setup, actors can make probabilistic decisions over the period of a time step based on their adaptation ability, risk perception, and social network (Elagib et al, ; Farjad et al, ). The cumulative result of their adaptive behavior can provide a more realistic, bottom‐up realization of “adaption,” which in turn is used to calculate the current risk determinants in a heterogeneous way (tier 1).…”

Section: An Agent‐based Sociohydrologic Framework For Drought Risk Asmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

et al. 2019

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Droughts are a persistent and costly hazard impacting human and environmental systems. As climate variability continues to increase and socioeconomic development influences the distribution of wealth and people, drought risk is expected to increase in many parts of the world. The unique characteristics of droughtsnamely their slow onset, large spatiotemporal extent, human-influenced propagation, delayed impacts and teleconnection potential-make it difficult to correctly assess drought impact and calculate risk. Further complicating this calculation is the capacity for humans to make adaptive decisions before, during, and after a drought event, which in turn alters expected impacts. In this sense, droughts are equally a social and hydroclimatic issue. Risk perception is one of the main factors driving adaptation decisions, yet most models neglect how humans view and respond to risk, and in particular how experiences influence decisions through time. In this overview, we describe a framework that extends the traditional risk modeling approach to include the two-way feedback between the transient adaptation decisions and drought exposure, vulnerability and hazard. We discuss how a sociohydrologic, agent-based modeling setup, focused on individual and collective actions, can simulate the adaptive behaviors of different stakeholders to examine how emergent actions might influence projected drought risk. We suggest such an approach can provide a test-bed for understanding adaptive behaviors in an increasingly drought-prone world and could allow for better prioritization of drought adaptation strategies; refined understanding of future scenarios; and a vehicle to drive planning and resilience building. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water Engineering Water > Methods K E Y W O R D S adaptation, agent-based modeling, behavior, drought, risk, sociohydrology

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“…Socially marginal groups are often regarded as the most vulnerable to stress from natural hazards, where marginality and exposure prompt each other. Such narratives also echo in the climate justice literature [16][17][18].…”

Section: Conflict-sensitive Climate Change Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Both these climatic elements separately and collectively influence the scarcity of water. Such water scarcity results in declining agricultural harvests in large parts of Africa [18] and South Asia [23,24] and creates a food crisis for livestock in pastoral societies [16,17]. Among different livelihood groups around the world [12,[25][26][27][28], mounting water scarcity accelerates competition for access to and control over resources.…”

Section: Geographical Variation Of Climate Change Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seven of the thirty-five articles used farmers' perceptions as a proxy for climate data. For example, Elagib et al [18] used Darfur farmers' perceptions of rainfall and temperature data and compared them with meteorological data. They reveal that farmers' perception of temperature data aligns with original meteorological data, though the perception of rainfall data seems inaccurate [51].…”

Section: Attribution To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Conflict-Sensitive Climate Change Adaptation: A Review

et al. 2022

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Climate change adaptation (CCA) evolved in the global policy framework in the early 1990s. However, it began to flourish about a decade later through a subsequent development of institutions, policies and supporting financial mechanisms. Various adaptation approaches and development practices have been evolving over the last couple of decades through a process of scrutiny, debates, and critiques. One such recent approach is called conflict-sensitive adaptation, which encompasses concepts to understand potential conflict-inflicting elements and peacebuilding aspects of adaptation interventions. This paper examines 35 peer-reviewed research articles that have analysed field data with the notion of conceptualising conflict-sensitive CCA initiatives. Emerging key results were presented and discussed in different academic forums to stimulate peer reflections and debates. We found that the understanding of conflict-sensitive adaptation has its universality in engaging with diverse stakeholders. However, practicalities were different in the cases of the global north and the global south. In the global south, there is a concentration of research in areas of pre-existing conflict in Africa and Asia, where climate change links are often assumed from IPCC reports in order to compensate for the unavailability of field data. However, from the perspective of adaptation politics and governance, there is a concerted urge for the emancipatory participation of local and marginalised populations. We argue for a need to pretest adaptation projects through a conflict lens. Decolonising the adaptation and understanding of local geography is critical in such planning.

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Socio-hydrological Framework of Farmer-Drought Feedback: Darfur as a Case Study

Cited by 7 publications

References 40 publications

Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya

Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

Conflict-Sensitive Climate Change Adaptation: A Review

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