Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

Abstract

Droughts are a persistent and costly hazard impacting human and environmental systems. As climate variability continues to increase and socioeconomic development influences the distribution of wealth and people, drought risk is expected to increase in many parts of the world. The unique characteristics of droughtsnamely their slow onset, large spatiotemporal extent, human-influenced propagation, delayed impacts and teleconnection potential-make it difficult to correctly assess drought impact and calculate risk. Further complicating this calculation is the capacity for humans to make adaptive decisions before, during, and after a drought event, which in turn alters expected impacts. In this sense, droughts are equally a social and hydroclimatic issue. Risk perception is one of the main factors driving adaptation decisions, yet most models neglect how humans view and respond to risk, and in particular how experiences influence decisions through time. In this overview, we describe a framework that extends the traditional risk modeling approach to include the two-way feedback between the transient adaptation decisions and drought exposure, vulnerability and hazard. We discuss how a sociohydrologic, agent-based modeling setup, focused on individual and collective actions, can simulate the adaptive behaviors of different stakeholders to examine how emergent actions might influence projected drought risk. We suggest such an approach can provide a test-bed for understanding adaptive behaviors in an increasingly drought-prone world and could allow for better prioritization of drought adaptation strategies; refined understanding of future scenarios; and a vehicle to drive planning and resilience building. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water Engineering Water > Methods K E Y W O R D S adaptation, agent-based modeling, behavior, drought, risk, sociohydrology

Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya

“…Although several studies have dealt with uncertainties in estimating drought hazard, the interplay between adaptation and drought risk has often been neglected (Wens, 2019). Consequently, vulnerability has typically been included as a static factor, which assumes a "business-as-usual" level of future adaptation (Adger et al, 2018;De Pinto et al, 2019;Wens et al, 2019).…”

Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

“…A specific aspect that has not been covered in any of the global risk studies reviewed is the influence that human behaviour and perception can have on the effectiveness of DRR measures, through various feedbacks. A classic example in hydrology is the levee effect (White, 1945), in which increased levels of flood protection from levees and dikes can also lead to increased exposure and/or vulnerability in areas protected by dikes. Similarly, for wildfires feedbacks exist between the physical risk and human actions to attempt to manage fuel and suppress fires.…”

The benefit of using an ensemble of seasonal streamflow forecasts in water allocation decisions

“…S12 and S13). The rank histogram shows the frequency of the rank of the observed inflows in the ensemble, with a wellcalibrated ensemble exhibiting a uniform distribution (Wilks, 2011). For easier interpretation, the ensemble is pooled into five classes.…”

“…They find that the availability of information on available water as the season develops, such as provided through a seasonal forecast, will influence perceptions of water availability and consequently cropping decisions. Further research into how farmers in the Murrumbidgee basin make decisions using for example agentbased models (Wens et al, 2019) could shed more light on the influence on water allocation decisions made at the basin levels.…”