Social Distancing Has Merely Stabilized COVID-19 in the US

Wagner, Aaron B.; Hill, Elaine; Ryan, Sean; Sun, Ziteng; Deng, Grace; Bhadane, Sourbh; Martinez, Victor Hernandez; Wu, Peter; Li, Dongmei; Anand, Ajay; Acharya, Jayadev; Matteson, David S.

doi:10.1101/2020.04.27.20081836

Cited by 18 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The initial time point was considered as when countries exceeded 1 case per million inhabitants. Post social distancing was considered 11 days after social distancing policy was enacted based on disease latency days [9,10]. For countries with no social distancing policies, we used the median time interval from reaching 1 case per million to enacting social distancing policies in states/countries analyzed with social distancing policies, corresponding to 16 days in US States and 17 days globally.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates

et al. 2020

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The outbreak the SARS-CoV-2 (CoV-2) virus has resulted in over 6.5 million cases of COVID19, greatly stressing global healthcare infrastructure. Lacking medical prophylactic measures to combat disease spread, many nations have adopted social distancing policies in order to mitigate transmission of CoV-2. While mathematical models have suggested the efficacy of social distancing to curb the spread of CoV-2, there is a lack of systematic studies to quantify the real-world efficacy of these approaches. Here, we first demonstrate that implementation of social distancing policies in US states corresponded with a reduction in COVID19 spread rates, and that the reduction in spread rate is proportional to the average change in mobility. We validate this observation on a worldwide scale by analyzing COVID19 spread rate in 134 nations with varying social distancing policies. Globally, we find that social distancing policies significantly reduced the COVID19 spread rate, with resulting in an estimated 65% reduction (95% CI = 39-80%) in new COVID19 cases over a two week time period. These data suggest that social distancing policies may be a powerful tool to prevent spread of COVID19 in real-world scenarios.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates

et al. 2020

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“…Social distancing has been implemented in most states since March 2020 and was found to decrease the spread of SARS-CoV-2 [8][9][10][11]. However, a two-phased reopening of economies was implemented in most states in mid-May 2020, leading to lifting of social distancing requirements that impacted COVID-19 incidence rates [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influences of reopening businesses and social venues: COVID-19 incidence rate in East Texas county

Bosworth

Ledlow

et al. 2021

Epidemiol. Infect.

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As the on-going severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, we aimed to understand whether economic reopening (EROP) significantly influenced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence. COVID-19 data from Texas Health and Human Services between March and August 2020 were analysed. COVID-19 incidence rate (cases per 100 000 population) was compared to statewide for selected urban and rural counties. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in trends of COVID-19 incidence and interrupted time-series analyses for potential impact of state EROP orders on COVID-19 incidence. We found that the incidence rate increased to 145.1% (95% CI 8.4–454.5%) through 4th April, decreased by 15.5% (95% CI −24.4 −5.9%) between 5th April and 30th May, increased by 93.1% (95% CI 60.9–131.8%) between 31st May and 11th July and decreased by 13.2% (95% CI −22.2 −3.2%) after 12 July 2020. The study demonstrates the EROP policies significantly impacted trends in COVID-19 incidence rates and accounted for increases of 129.9 and 164.6 cases per 100 000 populations for the 24- or 17-week model, respectively, along with other county and state reopening ordinances. The incidence rate decreased sharply after 12th July considering the emphasis on a facemask or covering requirement in business and social settings.

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“…8 In the U.S., individual states have been granted the authority to design their own COVIDmitigation strategy, therefore, the extent and type of social distancing policies adopted differs across states. 9 Research examining state-imposed restrictions has found a reduction in the doubling rate of SARS-CoV-2 among U.S. states, 10 as well as the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases across U.S counties after the imposition of social distancing measures. 11,12 Other research has suggested that rather than reducing the daily growth rate of COVID-19, social distancing merely stabilizes the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. 10 Additionally, when examining the effectiveness of social distancing, studies have used social mobility as a measure of social distancing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…9 Research examining state-imposed restrictions has found a reduction in the doubling rate of SARS-CoV-2 among U.S. states, 10 as well as the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases across U.S counties after the imposition of social distancing measures. 11,12 Other research has suggested that rather than reducing the daily growth rate of COVID-19, social distancing merely stabilizes the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. 10 Additionally, when examining the effectiveness of social distancing, studies have used social mobility as a measure of social distancing. 11,[13][14][15] However, mobility represents an imperfect proxy for social distancing because individuals can be mobile while still maintaining the required minimum 6 foot separation from others to prevent viral transmission.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Distancing Causally Impacts the Spread of SARS-CoV-2: A U.S. Nationwide Event Study

Gagnon

Lloyd

2020

Preprint

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Objectives: To assess the causal impact of a spontaneous relaxation of social distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States (U.S.), while controlling for social mobility and state-imposed social distancing restrictions. Design: Event study. Setting: Quasi-experimental setting created by the U.S. nationwide protests precipitated by George Floyd's tragic death on May 25, 2020. Population: Individuals in 3,142 U.S. counties from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Main Outcome Measures: The number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in all U.S. counties between the period of January 22, 2020, and June 20, 2020, and the cumulative change in COVID-19 cases in protest counties relative to non-protest counties following the onset of the protests. Results: We document a country-wide increase of over 3.06 cases per day, per 100,000 population, following the onset of the protests (95%CI: 2.47-3.65), and a further increase of 1.73 cases per day, per 100,000 population, in the counties in which the protests took place (95%CI: 0.59-2.87). Relative to the week preceding the onset of the protests, this represents a 61.2% country-wide increase in COVID-19 cases, and a further 34.6% increase in the protest counties. Conclusions: Our study documents a significant increase in COVID-19 case counts in counties that experienced a protest, and we conclude that social distancing practices causally impact the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The observed effect cannot be explained by changes in social distancing restrictions and social mobility, and placebo tests rule out the possibility that this finding is attributable to chance. Our research informs policy makers and provides insights regarding the usefulness of social distancing as an intervention to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

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Social Distancing Has Merely Stabilized COVID-19 in the US

Cited by 18 publications

References 36 publications

Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates

Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates

Influences of reopening businesses and social venues: COVID-19 incidence rate in East Texas county

Social Distancing Causally Impacts the Spread of SARS-CoV-2: A U.S. Nationwide Event Study

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