Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates

Abstract

The outbreak the SARS-CoV-2 (CoV-2) virus has resulted in over 6.5 million cases of COVID19, greatly stressing global healthcare infrastructure. Lacking medical prophylactic measures to combat disease spread, many nations have adopted social distancing policies in order to mitigate transmission of CoV-2. While mathematical models have suggested the efficacy of social distancing to curb the spread of CoV-2, there is a lack of systematic studies to quantify the real-world efficacy of these approaches. Here, we first demonstrate that implementation of social distancing policies in US states corresponded with a reduction in COVID19 spread rates, and that the reduction in spread rate is proportional to the average change in mobility. We validate this observation on a worldwide scale by analyzing COVID19 spread rate in 134 nations with varying social distancing policies. Globally, we find that social distancing policies significantly reduced the COVID19 spread rate, with resulting in an estimated 65% reduction (95% CI = 39-80%) in new COVID19 cases over a two week time period. These data suggest that social distancing policies may be a powerful tool to prevent spread of COVID19 in real-world scenarios.

An integrated view on society readiness and initial reaction to COVID–19: A study across European countries

“…In the spotlight are government interventions [11] the preparedness of the healthcare system [12], risk factors [13], economic [14], political [15] and social factors. Among social factors, the one that received the most attention in the context of COVID-19 is the phenomenon of social distancing [16,17]. Several other authors have focused on social trust [8], social behaviour [18] and the well-being of individuals [19].…”

“…Studies conducted in China [47,48] and the United States [49] have provided early evidence that social distancing can successfully reduce infection transmission. Reduction of mobility is at the heart of social distancing [17]. It is important that the decision to stay at home is not only the result of an imposed government restriction, but also reflects the selfimposed COVID-19 strategies of avoiding individuals [16,50,51].…”

Determinants of Behavioral Changes Since COVID-19 among Middle School Students

“…The South Korean government implemented protective measures against the spread of COVID-19, including a national infectious disease plan stemming from the 2015 MERS outbreak; nationwide contact tracing efforts; and a ban on the export of face masks [ 4 , 5 ]. Such policies that encourage protective behaviors such as social distancing have been found to be effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 [ 6 ]. Many of these social distancing measures, such as school closures and the subsequent transition to online learning, greatly affect adolescents, and researchers have found that the continued spread of COVID-19 has many deleterious effects on adolescents’ mental, physical, and socioemotional health [ 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 ].…”

Effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19; a protocol of a systematic review and realist review

“…Additionally, there is no certain treatment for COVID-19 and most of the available treatments are provided to control the symptoms [3]. Currently, it seems that the best and most effective way to reduce the number of infected cases, as well as the number of COVID-19 related death, is to follow official infection control measures and practice social distancing [2,4].…”