Social Distancing Causally Impacts the Spread of SARS-CoV-2: A U.S. Nationwide Event Study

Abstract

<jats:p>Objectives: To assess the causal impact of a spontaneous relaxation of social distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States (U.S.), while controlling for social mobility and state-imposed social distancing restrictions. Design: Event study. Setting: Quasi-experimental setting created by the U.S. nationwide protests precipitated by George Floyd's tragic death on May 25, 2020. Population: Individuals in 3,142 U.S. counties from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Main Outcome Measures: The number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in all U.S. counties between the period of January 22, 2020, and June 20, 2020, and the cumulative change in COVID-19 cases in protest counties relative to non-protest counties following the onset of the protests. Results: We document a country-wide increase of over 3.06 cases per day, per 100,000 population, following the onset of the protests (95%CI: 2.47-3.65), and a further increase of 1.73 cases per day, per 100,000 population, in the counties in which the protests took place (95%CI: 0.59-2.87). Relative to the week preceding the onset of the protests, this represents a 61.2% country-wide increase in COVID-19 cases, and a further 34.6% increase in the protest counties. Conclusions: Our study documents a significant increase in COVID-19 case counts in counties that experienced a protest, and we conclude that social distancing practices causally impact the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The observed effect cannot be explained by changes in social distancing restrictions and social mobility, and placebo tests rule out the possibility that this finding is attributable to chance. Our research informs policy makers and provides insights regarding the usefulness of social distancing as an intervention to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2.</jats:p>

The current situation of COVID-19 in Sudan

“…Countries that have witnessed protests have reported more cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections. In the USA, the number of COVID-19 cases increases by 3.39 cases per day per 100 000 people, after the protests surrounding George Floyd's death [ 26 ]. As a result of the massive protests and the scheduled reopening of lockdown, we expect an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Sudan.…”

Using psychological science to support social distancing: Tradeoffs between affiliation and disease‐avoidance motivations

“…Competition between the need to belong and disease avoidance has been starkly revealed as the novel Coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2, i.e., COVID‐19) became a global pandemic. The leading recommendation to slow the spread of infectious disease is social distancing or avoiding close physical contact with others, which indeed demonstrates considerable efficacy in reducing infection spread (Fong et al., 2020; Gagnon et al., 2020). This has entailed everything from mandatory stay‐at‐home orders, school closures, and business shutdowns in some countries to less restrictive government recommendations that rely on voluntary social distancing.…”

Crowd Salience Heightens Tolerance to Healthy Facial Features

“…This urbanization naturally increases experiences of crowding that correspondingly increase risk of pathogenic illness exposure. This risk became particularly salient during the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the employment of extensive social distancing guidelines that reduced the requisite contact for disease spread and a considerable migration from individuals away from urban environments (Gagnon et al, 2020;Whitaker, 2021). The resulting vigilance toward pathogenic threat from interpersonal contact would similarly elicit motivations and behaviors to ensure individuals the opportunity to maintain access to benefits of group living while minimizing risk of disease spread.…”