Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil's 2002 Elections

Abstract

T hat democracy is unthinkable without political parties is now conventional wisdom in political science. One of the necessary functions parties fulfill is to simplify the labyrinthine world of politics by supplying voters with relevant information in digestible form. In stable democracies parties facilitate electoral decision making by providing the informational shortcuts and standing choices that many citizens rely upon at the start of every campaign (Popkin 1991;Sniderman 2000). While this makes reasoned choice easier for "informationmising" voters, it also lends an air of predictability and even inevitability to most elections in stable party systems. Because campaign effects tend to be limited or offsetting, outcomes can often be forecast before campaigning even begins (Campbell and Garand 2000;Gelman and King 1993).When party systems are young and/or in flux, however, parties commonly have a more limited presence in the electorate (Converse 1969). Partisan attachments Andy Baker is assistant professor of political science, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115-5000 (a.baker@neu.edu). Barry Ames is Mellon Professor of Comparative Politics, Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 (barryames@yahoo.com). Lucio R. Renno is assistant professor, Center for Latin American Studies, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (lucio renno@yahoo.com).Thanks to Jorge Dominguez, Kenneth Greene, Robert Huckfeldt, Chappell Lawson, William Mayer, Mauro Porto, David Samuels, Ethan Scheiner, Katherine Cramer Walsh, members of the Latin American Seminar Series at Harvard University, and the Political Science Department at the University of California-Davis for valuable comments and assistance. The data collection for this project was funded by the National Science Foundation (SES #0137088).are only weakly formed, so voter preferences are more volatile, campaigns more crucial, and election outcomes less predictable (Lawson and McCann 2005). Though this combination-weak partisan cues, low levels of partisan identification, and volatile voters-characterizes many new democracies, scholars have only begun to study how citizens in such contexts gather political information and make electoral decisions. We address this question with a unique public opinion dataset collected during a particularly volatile campaign, the presidential election of 2002 in Brazil. Our central claim is that politically colored information gathered by citizens through social networks plays a primary role in short-term attitude change and vote choice. We explain how interpersonal influence produces short-term preference volatility among voters and shapes election outcomes. Our analysis also contributes to the heretofore U.S.-dominated social network literature by clarifying some of its conceptual and theoretical ambiguities and by pointing out causal mechanisms that

Contexts, networks, and voting behavior: the social flow of political communication in Italy

“…First of all, electoral behavior is highly dependent on the social environment in which voters are embedded. Huge stress is given to the role of 'molecular interactions', as well as 'hot communication' inside groups (Baker et al, 2006).…”

A estabilidade e a efetividade da preferência partidária no Brasil

“…Como se nota, os "petistas de abril" tendem a votar mais no PT para outros cargos do que os "petistas de outubro", e ambos os grupos o fazem com maior probabilidade do que os demais respondentes. Também se vê que os "petistas de abril" são os mais propensos a manifestarem preferência Fonte: Dados obtidos a partir de Baker et al (2006) 17 As probabilidades dos gráficos 1 a 4 foram geradas com base na simulação de valores de interesse. …”

Impactos da rede e contexto social para uma decisão de qualidade : o voto correto

“…No caso brasileiro de um sistema partidário fragmentado, Baker et al (2006) trabalham com os indicadores de conflito e de heterogeneidade para as categorias de redes sociais e bairro, reafirmando que esses mecanismos são fenômenos distintos. Esse dado reitera o potencial de influência social em novas democracias, além de apontar consequências reais para a mudança da intenção de voto durante a campanha eleitoral.…”

“…A variável conflito é construída a partir das opiniões entre o principal ator (ego) e os outros indivíduos da mesma rede social (alters). Diversidade, por exemplo, é conceitualmente próxima do termo concorrência (Nir, 2011) ou de heterogeneidade (Baker et al,2006). Já conflito é, conceitualmente, semelhante a formulação de discussões perigosas (Eveland., 2009).…”

“…Já que informação é importante para o voto correto e redes sociais são mecanismos de disseminação de informações, mesmo que contaminadas pelas preferências daqueles que compõem essas redes, cabe investigar como a rede afeta as escolhas individuais. Cabe destacar que isso pode ocorrer através de dois mecanismos: o informacional, já mencionado acima, e o ideológico, no qual as preferências combinadas dos membros da rede passam a afetar diretamente as escolhas individuais (Baker et al 2006).…”