SINTELLA: Simulation of INTELLigence Analysis

Wastell, Colin; Weeks, Nicole; Duncan, Piers

doi:10.1080/18335300.2009.9686933

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The results of this study add to other research [19,[28][29][30]] that point to the need to address the issue of the influence of cognitive biases and predispositions in domains such as security and intelligence analysis. This will require a great deal more research specifically involving the members of the intelligence community.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 47%

The Impact of Closed-mindedness on the Assessment of Threat: An Empirical Study

Wastell¹,

Weeks²,

Wearing³

et al. 2013

TOPSYJ

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Abstract:In the past decade official reports into intelligence failures have asserted that analysts are subject to the effects of everyday cognitive limitations. The present study examined the influence of an individual's inclination toward closedmindedness on a computer administered simulated intelligence analysis task. Results indicate that several components of closed-mindedness as measured by the need for cognitive closure scale [NFC] significantly predicted the assessed level of threat posed to and general attitude toward a visiting government delegation by a foreign nation's population. Most significantly higher scores on the NFC subscale 'need for predictability' were associated with higher scores on the initial assessed threat level. This effect remained after controlling for the amount of information accessed. The implications of these findings for the conduct of intelligence analysis are discussed.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 47%

The Impact of Closed-mindedness on the Assessment of Threat: An Empirical Study

Wastell¹,

Weeks²,

Wearing³

et al. 2013

TOPSYJ

Self Cite

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“…In line with these recommendations, we developed an experimental methodology known as the Analysis Simulation Project (ASP), which addresses these three recommendations. ASP is a computer administered simulation of complex, dynamic, ambiguous, and uncertain information environments (Wastell, Weeks, & Duncan, ; Weeks, Wastell, Taylor, Wearing, & Duncan, ). These information environments are encountered by many professionals including police officers, security personnel, medical practitioners, and financial advisers.…”

Section: Hypothesis Confirmation As a Positive Test Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To date, we have conducted studies (e.g. Wastell et al , ) using the ASP‐SINTELLA Murder Investigation scenario with over 400 participants. In all these studies, the perpetrator identified by the ACH method has been identified as the most probable perpetrator by a substantial proportion of the participants.…”

Section: Hypothesis Confirmation As a Positive Test Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Hypothesis Confirmation Behaviors in a Simulated Murder Investigation: Implications for Practice

Wastell

Weeks

Wearing

et al. 2012

Journal Invest Psychology

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Investigators have been shown to be prone to accessing information that confirms their preferred hypothesis. This tendency has been termed hypothesis confirmation. Hypothesis confirmation behaviour was explored in two studies using a computer administered simulation of a murder investigation. In Study 1, hypothesis confirmation behaviour did not differentiate successful and unsuccessful participants. However, unsuccessful participants stored more confirmatory information than non‐confirmatory information. Successful participants did not show this pattern. In Study 2, unsuccessful participants tended to settle early on a suspect and then acquired information that supported their decision. Successful participants tended to consider a number of suspects for longer and accessed a greater diversity of information. Taken together, these findings are highly suggestive of the role of information acquisition as an important component of hypothesis confirmatory behaviour, which is associated with unsuccessful information processing in the context of a simulated murder investigation. Implications for practice are presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…For example, it demonstrates validity in capturing how consumers make purchase decisions (Mitchell, Kahn, & Knasko, 1995;Reisen, Hoffrage, & Mast, 2008), or how people make judgments in strategic interactions like sequential bargaining games (Johnson, Camerer, Sen, & Rymon, 2002) and two-person guessing games (Costa-Gomes & Crawford, 2006). Researchers have used the software in the healthcare and law enforcement contexts where information search is completed under the time and budget constraints (Schram & Sonnemans, 2011;Wastell, Weeks, & Duncan, 2009). In the field of psychology, Bieleke and colleagues (2020) have recently used Mouselab to study the impact of social value orientation on information acquisition.…”

Section: Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

How do people plan to negotiate?

Le¹,

Jang²

2021

Preprint

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Planning is critical for negotiation success as it facilitates obtaining superior outcomes. However, little empirically is known about what people do to plan. We offer an initial exploration of the topic, with the aim of inspiring greater research attention to the topic. We approach the question from an individual differences perspective, since planning phase places greater emphasis on individual action. We explored how the Big Five personality factors and gender predict preference and search for information that facilitates efforts to claim value, create value, and manage relationships. In Study 1, we used a survey method to elicit preferences. Extraversion and conscientiousness predicted preference for information that would help to claim value, and agreeableness predicted preference for information that would help to manage relationships. Women preferred value creating information. In Studies 2, 3, and 4, we examined search behavior using the Mouselab paradigm (Johnson, Payne, Bettman, & Schkade, 1989). A different pattern of relationships emerged. When the search task was complex, agreeableness predicted how extensively people searched for information. When tasks were more constrained, we detected fewer relationships between individual differences and search behavior.

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SINTELLA: Simulation of INTELLigence Analysis

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

The Impact of Closed-mindedness on the Assessment of Threat: An Empirical Study

The Impact of Closed-mindedness on the Assessment of Threat: An Empirical Study

Identifying Hypothesis Confirmation Behaviors in a Simulated Murder Investigation: Implications for Practice

How do people plan to negotiate?

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