Simulation of regional temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years and the next 30 years over China

Liu, Yanxiang; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Qiang; Guo, Yangwu; Gao, Ge; Wang, Jianping

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2009.01.007

Cited by 58 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…And the annual minimum temperature was observed an increase of 2˚C -7˚C approximately over the past 5 decades, with an average increasing rate of 0.5˚C -1.4˚C (10a) -1 in Shandong Peninsula ( Table 1). This observation was in agreement with the conclusions that the annual minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend over the past 50 years in China [7,[26][27][28], the north of 35˚N especially [24].…”

Section: Annual Mean Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 92%

“…However, changes in precipitation and temperashowed different collocati regions. For example, increasing temperature was identified all over China during the past 50 years, while the annual precipitation increased in South China, but decreased in the North [19,26,35], or decreased in East China, but increased in the west [7,31]. As has been argued above, the temperature has increased significantly in Shandong Peninsula with an abrupt change detected around 1990; whilst the precipitation decreased with an inflection point around 1980.…”

Section: Precipitation Changesmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…tr the last 50 years [7,19,26,31], with the transition point concentrated in mid-1980s [22,32], which is a little later than that of the Shandong Peninsula. Consequently, Shandong Peninsula was becoming warmer and drier gradually, while the western inland area showed a transition to warmer and wet conditions during the recent 50 years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global climate change, especially global warming has been a scientific fact that not can be avoided during the past 100 years [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The global average surface temperature has increased 0.74˚C during the 20th Century according to IPCC (2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Eastern China, against the Background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years: Case Study of Shandong Peninsula, China

Tian¹,

Wang²,

Zhan³

et al. 2012

IJG

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The climate change in Shandong Peninsula, China was analyzed in this paper by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, Accumulated Difference Curve and Order Cluster Analysis methods, based upon the datas of annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature and annual precipitation, precipitation from June to September over the past 50 years. Results obtained showed a number of observations: 1) The annual mean temperature of Shandong Peninsula showed a significant increasing trend, with a distinct abrupt change point detected around 1990, during the past 5 decades. The warming of the Peninsula over the last 50 years was due mainly to the significant increase of annual minimum temperature. The annual maximum temperature demonstrated a mixed trend of decreasing and increasing, but was statistically insignificant, and no abrupt change was detected; 2) The annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend during the past 5 decades, with an abrupt change detected around 1980 at most stations; but there was an earlier transition point at 1966, at a few stations. The reduction in precipitation, from June to September, was responsible mainly for the decrease of annual precipitation. Besides, the proportion of the June-September precipitation in the year declined slightly over the last 50 years; 3) In comparison, the temperature evolution in Shandong Peninsula was basically consistent with most parts of China, but warmed at a faster rate over the same period; the decreasing trend of precipitation was more significant compared with the other climate zones of China. Within the Peninsula, the abrupt change of temperature and precipitation in the Southeast was earlier than that in the Northwest; the reduction of precipitation was larger in the Southeast while the increase of temperature was more significant in the Northwest. This research was of great importance to understand the climate change and its environmental effects in the coastal zone.

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Section: Annual Mean Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Precipitation Changesmentioning

confidence: 72%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Eastern China, against the Background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years: Case Study of Shandong Peninsula, China

Tian¹,

Wang²,

Zhan³

et al. 2012

IJG

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“…Past studies show cooling trends in minimum and maximum temperature during the 1960s in the southeast U.S. and southeast China, but it has been followed by a steady warming trend since that time [59][60][61][62]. By contrast, the warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere is less, with a cooling trend in minimum temperature (Figure 5a,b) consistent with reports from Messina et al [63], Suppiah et al [64], and Della-Marta et al [65].…”

Section: Regional Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cropping Systems and Climate Change in Humid Subtropical Environments

Hernández-Ochoa

Asseng

2018

Agronomy

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Abstract:In the future, climate change will challenge food security by threatening crop production. Humid subtropical regions play an important role in global food security, with crop rotations often including wheat (winter crop) and soybean and maize (summer crops). Over the last 30 years, the humid subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere have experienced a stronger warming trend than in the Southern Hemisphere, and the trend is projected to continue throughout the mid-and end of century. Past rainfall trends range, from increases up to 4% per decade in Southeast China to −3% decadal decline in East Australia; a similar trend is projected in the future. Climate change impact studies suggest that by the middle and end of the century, wheat yields may not change, or they will increase up to 17%. Soybean yields will increase between 3% and 41%, while maize yields will increase by 30% or decline by −40%. These wide-ranging climate change impacts are partly due to the region-specific projections, but also due to different global climate models, climate change scenarios, single-model uncertainties, and cropping system assumptions, making it difficult to make conclusions from these impact studies and develop adaptation strategies. Additionally, most of the crop models used in these studies do not include major common stresses in this environment, such as heat, frost, excess water, pests, and diseases. Standard protocols and impact assessments across the humid subtropical regions are needed to understand climate change impacts and prepare for adaptation strategies.

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The coupled moisture‐heat process of permafrost around a thermokarst pond in Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under global warming

Zhan

Lai

et al. 2014

JGR Earth Surface

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Due to environmental disturbances such as local human activity and global warming, melting of massive ground ice has resulted in thermokarst ponds, which are extensively distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Besides the global warming, the thermokarst pond, as a major heat source, speeds up the moisture change and degradation of its surrounding permafrost. To analyze the long-term coupled moisture-heat process near a representative nonpenetrative thermokarst pond in a permafrost region, abundant temperature data over multiple years at different depths and horizontal distances from the center of the thermokarst pond have been collected at a field experimental station in QTP. A numerical model is built to analyze this thermokarst pond. The temperature and moisture processes of surrounding permafrost are simulated by this model and compared with measured temperature data. Our results show that if the rate of air temperature rise is 0.048°C/yr, which refers to a 2.4°C temperature rise over 50 years, the thawing fronts underneath the thermokarst pond move downward at a linear rate of 0.18 m/yr and the permafrost beneath the pond center would disappear after the year of 2281. Beyond that time, the impact range of the pond on the natural ground increases to about 50 m in horizontal direction. So a dish-shape thawing zone occurs around the thermokarst pond. Simultaneously, the moisture state is greatly changed in 2281 and becomes completely different from that in 2013. All of these would inevitably deteriorate the ecological and environmental system in QTP.

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Simulation of regional temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years and the next 30 years over China

Cited by 58 publications

References 3 publications

Analysis of Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Eastern China, against the Background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years: Case Study of Shandong Peninsula, China

Analysis of Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Eastern China, against the Background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years: Case Study of Shandong Peninsula, China

Cropping Systems and Climate Change in Humid Subtropical Environments

The coupled moisture‐heat process of permafrost around a thermokarst pond in Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under global warming

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