Simulation of Polar Antarctic trends: Influence of tropical SST

Grassi, B.; Redaelli, G.; Visconti, Guido

doi:10.1029/2005gl023804

Cited by 32 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…Given the strong projection of the Pacific-South American pattern upon the SAM, we suggest that the forcing attributable to SST warming in the tropical central Pacific explains a substantial part of the observed trend in the SAM in winter. Similarly, the DJF SST warming over most of the tropics along with cooling in the eastern Pacific also has the potential to excite a zonally symmetric response in the extratropics by changing the Hadley cell and the midlatitude jet stream (Seager et al 2003;L'Heureux and Thompson 2006;Grassi et al 2005), suggesting a further possible contribution of tropical SST to the SAM summer trend.…”

Section: B Dynamics Of the Sam Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Grassi et al (2005) suggested that the tropical SST in austral summer has a significant impact on the SAM by altering the propagation of planetary waves, which in turn affect the midlatitude jet and hence the SAM. L'Heureux and found that SAM and El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related circulation anomalies exhibit common features during austral summer [DecemberFebruary (DJF)] and that about 25% of variance of the SAM index is related to ENSO variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of the Tropics on the Southern Annular Mode

et al. 2012

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Perturbations in the southern annular mode (SAM) are shown to be significantly correlated with SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific during austral winter and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific during austral summer. The SAM signature in the Pacific sector resembles a tropically forced Rossby wave train, the so-called Pacific-South American pattern, while the signature in the Indian Ocean sector is a zonally elongated meridional dipole. Thus, the SAM contains strong zonally asymmetric variability and tends to behave differently in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, with internal dynamics prevailing in the Indian Ocean sector and the forced response to tropical SST anomalies exerting a strong influence in the Pacific sector. The tropically forced component of the SAM in the Pacific sector is related to a geographically fixed active Rossby wave source to the east of Australia within the core of the subtropical jet. In addition to the well-documented positive trend in summer, the SAM also exhibits a negative wintertime trend since 1979, characterized by prominent geopotential height increases over the high latitudes. In both seasons, SAM trends are closely linked to long-term trends in tropical Pacific SST that are independent of the canonical eastern Pacific ENSO variability. Although the SAM is an intrinsic pattern of high-latitude variability, the SAM index reflects the superposition of both high-latitude and tropically forced variability.

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Section: B Dynamics Of the Sam Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the Tropics on the Southern Annular Mode

et al. 2012

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“…This is partly due to an increase of the swell coming from the Southern Ocean that also explains the equatorward rotation of extreme WEF projected by the end of the XXI century in many areas of the Southern hemisphere (Figure 3). On the other hand, an intensified AAO can be associated with a warming sea surface at subtropical latitudes, involving more intense convection and more frequent storms [Grassi et al, 2005].…”

Section: 1002/2016gl072488mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Mentaschi

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

165

153

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In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

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“…The long-term trend in tropical SST also has a correspondence to the trend of temperature in the southern polar stratosphere (Grassi et al, 2005(Grassi et al, , 2006Hu and Fu, 2009;Li et al, 2010;Clem et al, 2016). Although ENSO is reported to cause circulation and temperature anomalies in the southern high-latitude stratosphere, the interannual variability of the southern polar vortex and ozone levels over the past 3 decades cannot be explained by ENSO variations alone (Angell, 1988(Angell, , 1990Hurwitz et al, 2011a, b;Lin et al, 2012;Wilson et al, 2014;Evtushevsky et al, 2015;Yu et al, 2015;Yang et al, 2015;Welhouse et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between lower-stratospheric ozone at southern high latitudes and sea surface temperature in the East Asian marginal seas in austral spring

Tian

Xie

et al. 2017

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and model simulations, this study investigates the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on interannual variations of lower-stratospheric ozone at southern high latitudes in austral spring. It is found that the SST variations across the East Asian marginal seas (5 • S-35 • N, 100-140 • E) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, where ENSO occurs, have the most significant correlation with the southern high-latitude lower-stratospheric ozone changes in austral spring. Further analysis reveals that planetary waves originating over the marginal seas in austral spring can propagate towards southern middle to high latitudes via teleconnection pathway. The anomalous propagation and dissipation of ultra-long Rossby waves in the stratosphere strengthen/cool (weaken/warm) the southern polar vortex, which produces more (less) active chlorine and enhances (suppresses) ozone depletion in the southern high-latitude stratosphere on one the hand and impedes (favors) the transport of ozone from the southern middle-latitude stratosphere to high latitudes on the other. The model simulations also reveal that approximately 17 % of the decreasing trend in the southern highlatitude lower-stratospheric ozone observed over the past 5 decades may be associated with the increasing trend in SST over the East Asian marginal seas.

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Simulation of Polar Antarctic trends: Influence of tropical SST

Cited by 32 publications

References 28 publications

Influence of the Tropics on the Southern Annular Mode

Influence of the Tropics on the Southern Annular Mode

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

The relationship between lower-stratospheric ozone at southern high latitudes and sea surface temperature in the East Asian marginal seas in austral spring

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