Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Dosio, Alessandro; Feyen, Luc

doi:10.1002/2016gl072488

Cited by 153 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 84 publications

(115 reference statements)

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“…Mentaschi et al. () analysed projection of extreme wave energy fluxes under a high‐emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) and showed a significant increase in the 100‐year return level of wave energy fluxes for the Southern Hemisphere and for some regions of the Northern Hemisphere. It is very likely that such changes in the wave climate will significantly impact beach morphodynamics at both event scales (storm response) and long‐term scales (post‐storm recovery), which will require accurate predictions for implementing coastal adaptation strategies.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beach recovery from extreme storm activity during the 2013–14 winter along the Atlantic coast of Europe

Dodet

Castelle

Masselink

et al. 2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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The storm sequence of the 2013–14 winter left many beaches along the Atlantic coast of Europe in their most eroded state for decades. Understanding how beaches recover from such extreme events is essential for coastal managers, especially in light of potential regional increases in storminess due to climate change. Here we analyse a unique dataset of decadal beach morphological changes along the west coast of Europe to investigate the post‐2013–14 winter recovery. We show that the recovery signature is site specific and multi‐annual, with one studied beach fully recovered after 2 years, and the others only partially recovered after 4 years. During the recovery phase, winter waves primarily control the timescales of beach recovery, as energetic winter conditions stall the recovery process whereas moderate winter conditions accelerate it. This inter‐annual variability is well correlated with climate indices. On exposed beaches, an equilibrium model showed significant skill in reproducing the post‐storm recovery and thus can be used to investigate the recovery process in more detail. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beach recovery from extreme storm activity during the 2013–14 winter along the Atlantic coast of Europe

Dodet

Castelle

Masselink

et al. 2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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“…The present contribution has been focussed mostly on statistical and methodological aspects leading to reliable projections of ESLs; while further data interpretation takes place in separate studies [e.g., Vousdoukas et al ., , ; L . Mentaschi et al ., ]. Moreover, the fact that the dataset is openly available allows the scientific community to address unexplored aspects of the dynamics of ESL components during this century.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

et al. 2017

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Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST. Plain Language SummaryFuture extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Here, we show changes in all acting components, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century the 100-year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1 m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming.

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“…For some of the above factors, recent advances have been made to improve CFR assessment. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of studies and datasets related to future wave conditions (Fan et al, 2014;Hemer et al, 2013;Mentaschi et al, 2017) that can support large-scale CFR assessments. The uncertainty related to tidal contributions can be constrained by estimating site-specific α-factor estimates (see Eq.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Vousdoukas

Bouziotas

Giardino

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policymaking, and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight into the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the coastal flood risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea level (ESL), (ii) the underlying uncertainty in the digital elevation model (DEM), (iii) flood defence information, (iv) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability, and (v) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties on estimated expected annual damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal, and on the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, and their absolute and relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

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Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Cited by 153 publications

References 84 publications

Beach recovery from extreme storm activity during the 2013–14 winter along the Atlantic coast of Europe

Beach recovery from extreme storm activity during the 2013–14 winter along the Atlantic coast of Europe

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

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