Although the dramatic climate disruptions of the last glacial period have received considerable attention, relatively little has been directed toward climate variability in the Holocene (11,500 cal yr B.P. to the present). Examination of ?50 globally distributed paleoclimate records reveals as many as six periods of significant rapid climate change during the time periods 9000"8000, 6000"5000, 4200"3800, 3500"2500, 1200"1000, and 600"150 cal yr B.P. Most of the climate change events in these globally distributed records are characterized by polar cooling, tropical aridity, and major atmospheric circulation changes, although in the most recent interval (600"150 cal yr B.P.), polar cooling was accompanied by increased moisture in some parts of the tropics. Several intervals coincide with major disruptions of civilization, illustrating the human significance of Holocene climate variability.

Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.One Sentence Summary: Ocean melting of the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf was halved in two years as an underlying seabed ridge makes it highly sensitive to climatic forcing. Main Text:Austral summer observations in the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, show that lightlymodified, warm (0.5-1.2°C) and saline (>34.6) Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), 2-4°C above the in-situ freezing point, pervades a network of glacially scoured seabed troughs (1, Fig. 1A).The CDW reaches nearby Antarctic glaciers and delivers heat to the base of their 200-1000 mthick ice shelves (2-4). It is overlain by a 200-300 m-thick layer of cold (-1.5°C) and fresh (salinity<34.4) Winter Water (WW, Fig. 2A) that is seasonally replenished by interaction with the atmosphere and sea ice.Pine Island Glacier (PIG), a major outlet glacier feeding one such ice shelf, has shown apparently continuous thinning (5, 6) and intermittent acceleration (7-9) from 1973 to 2009.During this period, its ice shelf has also thinned (6,(10)(11)(12), and the reduction in buttressing driven by oceanic melting is believed to be responsible for the changes inland. Earlier analysis indicated that a higher CDW volume and temperature in Pine Island Bay (PIB) in January 2009caused an increase in ice-shelf melting and in the associated meltwater-driven circulation, relative to 1994 (2). The lack of sub-annual variability in CDW temperature during one yearlong measurement in PIB (1) and the long-term correlation between the oceanic melting and the mass loss required to sustain thinning of the ice shelf gave the impression that the ice-ocean system had shown progressive change over the last two decades. This is consistent with a positive geometrical feedback, with oceanic melt enlarging the cavity under the ice shelf, allowing stronger circulation and further melting.However, such ice-ocean systems are likely to be more complex. The glacier's rapid change over the last few decades was probably triggered by its ungrounding from a the top of a seabed ridge transverse to the ice flow at some time before the 1970s (4). Subsequent migration of the glacier's grounding line (13) down the seabed slope upstream from the ridge crest was probably an inevitable respon...

Global climate and the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are correlated over recent glacial cycles. The combination of processes responsible for a rise in atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial termination (23,000 to 9,000 years ago), however, remains uncertain. Establishing the timing and rate of CO2 changes in the past provides critical insight into the mechanisms that influence the carbon cycle and helps put present and future anthropogenic emissions in context. Here we present CO2 and methane (CH4) records of the last deglaciation from a new high-accumulation West Antarctic ice core with unprecedented temporal resolution and precise chronology. We show that although low-frequency CO2 variations parallel changes in Antarctic temperature, abrupt CO2 changes occur that have a clear relationship with abrupt climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. A significant proportion of the direct radiative forcing associated with the rise in atmospheric CO2 occurred in three sudden steps, each of 10 to 15 parts per million. Every step took place in less than two centuries and was followed by no notable change in atmospheric CO2 for about 1,000 to 1,500 years. Slow, millennial-scale ventilation of Southern Ocean CO2-rich, deep-ocean water masses is thought to have been fundamental to the rise in atmospheric CO2 associated with the glacial termination, given the strong covariance of CO2 levels and Antarctic temperatures. Our data establish a contribution from an abrupt, centennial-scale mode of CO2 variability that is not directly related to Antarctic temperature. We suggest that processes operating on centennial timescales, probably involving the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, seem to be influencing global carbon-cycle dynamics and are at present not widely considered in Earth system models.

The spatio-temporal pattern of peak Holocene warmth (Holocene thermal maximum, HTM) is traced over 140 sites across the Western Hemisphere of the Arctic (0-180 W; north of B60 N). Paleoclimate inferences based on a wide variety of proxy indicators provide clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 of these sites. At the 16 terrestrial sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures (primarily summer estimates) were on average 1.670.8 C higher than present (approximate average of the 20th century), but the warming was time-transgressive across the western Arctic. As the precession-driven summer insolation anomaly peaked 12-10 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), warming was concentrated in northwest North America, while cool conditions lingered in the northeast. Alaska and northwest Canada experienced the HTM between ca 11 and 9 ka, about 4000 yr prior to the HTM in northeast Canada. The delayed warming in Quebec and Labrador was linked to the residual Laurentide Ice Sheet, which chilled the region through its impact on surface energy balance and ocean circulation. The lingering ice also attests to the inherent asymmetry of atmospheric and oceanic circulation that predisposes the region to glaciation and modulates the pattern of climatic change. The spatial asymmetry of warming during the HTM resembles the pattern of warming observed in the Arctic over the last several decades. Although the two warmings are described at different temporal scales, and the HTM was additionally affected by the residual Laurentide ice, the similarities suggest there might be a preferred mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation that generates a recurrent pattern of warming under positive radiative forcing. Unlike the HTM, however, future warming will not be counterbalanced by the cooling effect of a residual North American ice sheet. r ARTICLE IN PRESS

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A database of surface Antarctic snow isotopic composition is constructed using available measurements, with an estimate of data quality and local variability. Although more than 1000 locations are documented, the spatial coverage remains uneven with a majority of sites located in specific areas of East Antarctica. The database is used to analyze the spatial variations in snow isotopic composition with respect to geographical characteristics (elevation, distance to the coast) and climatic features (temperature, accumulation) and with a focus on deuterium excess. The capacity of theoretical isotopic, regional, and general circulation atmospheric models (including "isotopic" models) to reproduce the observed features and assess the role of moisture advection in spatial deuterium excess fluctuations is analyzed.

An “offline” approach to DA is used, where static ensemble samples are drawn from existing CMIP climate‐model simulations to serve as the prior estimate of climate variables. We use linear, univariate forward models (“proxy system models (PSMs)”) that map climate variables to proxy measurements by fitting proxy data to 2 m air temperature from gridded instrumental temperature data; the linear PSMs are then used to predict proxy values from the prior estimate. Results for the LMR are compared against six gridded instrumental temperature data sets and 25% of the proxy records are withheld from assimilation for independent verification. Results show broad agreement with previous reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean 2 m air temperature, with millennial‐scale cooling, a multicentennial warm period around 1000 C.E., and a cold period coincident with the Little Ice Age (circa 1450–1800 C.E.). Verification against gridded instrumental data sets during 1880–2000 C.E. reveals greatest skill in the tropics and lowest skill over Northern Hemisphere land areas. Verification against independent proxy records indicates substantial improvement relative to the model (prior) data without proxy assimilation. As an illustrative example, we present multivariate reconstructed fields for a singular event, the 1808/1809 “mystery” volcanic eruption, which reveal global cooling that is strongly enhanced locally due to the presence of the Pacific‐North America wave pattern in the 500 hPa geopotential height field.

We propose, as a testable hypothesis, a basin-scale approach for interpreting the abundance of in situ produced cosmogenic isotopes, an approach which considers explicitly both the isotope and sediment flux through a drainage basin. Unlike most existing models, which are appropriate for evaluating in situ produced cosmogenic isotope abundance at discrete points on Earth's surface, our model is designed for interpreting isotope abundance in sediment. Because sediment is a mixture of materials, in favourable cases derived from throughout a drainage basin, we suggest that measured isotope abundances may reflect spatially averaged rates of erosion. We investigate the assumptions and behaviour of our model and conclude that it could provide geomorphologists with a relatively simple means by which to constrain the rate of landscape evolution if a basin is in isotopic steady state and if sampled sediments are well mixed.