“…Given the robust predictive capacity and skillful simulation demonstrated by the BCC-CSM1-1 model within the NEX-GDDP dataset for China's climate conditions [33], it was selected to provide downscaled projections for the period 2025-2060 under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These projections were utilized to evaluate the risks of meteorological and hydrological drought across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), as the model accurately simulates the climate characteristics of this region, as detailed in Appendix A.…”
The primary innovation of this study lies in the development of an integrated modeling framework that combines downscaled climate projections, land-use-change simulations, and copula-based risk analysis. This framework allows for the assessment of localized sub-seasonal and seasonal drought hazards under future scenarios. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent the future climate for 2025–2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future land-use-change distributions. The climate–land use–drought modeling nexus enables the generation of refined spatio-temporal projections of meteorological and hydrological drought risks in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the future period of 2025–2060. The results highlight the increased vulnerability of the upper YRB to sub-seasonal meteorological droughts, as well as the heightened sub-seasonal hydrological drought risks in the Loess Plateau. Furthermore, downstream areas experience escalated seasonal hydrological drought exposure due to urbanization. By providing actionable insights into localized future drought patterns, this integrated assessment approach advances preparedness and climate adaptation strategies. The findings of the study enhance our understanding of potential changes in this integral system under the combined pressures of global climate change and land use shifts.
“…Given the robust predictive capacity and skillful simulation demonstrated by the BCC-CSM1-1 model within the NEX-GDDP dataset for China's climate conditions [33], it was selected to provide downscaled projections for the period 2025-2060 under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These projections were utilized to evaluate the risks of meteorological and hydrological drought across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), as the model accurately simulates the climate characteristics of this region, as detailed in Appendix A.…”
The primary innovation of this study lies in the development of an integrated modeling framework that combines downscaled climate projections, land-use-change simulations, and copula-based risk analysis. This framework allows for the assessment of localized sub-seasonal and seasonal drought hazards under future scenarios. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent the future climate for 2025–2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future land-use-change distributions. The climate–land use–drought modeling nexus enables the generation of refined spatio-temporal projections of meteorological and hydrological drought risks in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the future period of 2025–2060. The results highlight the increased vulnerability of the upper YRB to sub-seasonal meteorological droughts, as well as the heightened sub-seasonal hydrological drought risks in the Loess Plateau. Furthermore, downstream areas experience escalated seasonal hydrological drought exposure due to urbanization. By providing actionable insights into localized future drought patterns, this integrated assessment approach advances preparedness and climate adaptation strategies. The findings of the study enhance our understanding of potential changes in this integral system under the combined pressures of global climate change and land use shifts.
“…Given the BCC-CSM1-1 model within the NEX-GDDP dataset demonstrates skillful simulation and robust predictive capacity for China's climate conditions [33], downscaled projections from this model were selected for the period 2025-2060 under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to evaluate meteorological and hydrological drought risks across the YRB.…”
The assessment and prediction of drought risk under future climate change and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios is critically important for drought prevention and mitigation, as it enables a clearer understanding of potential shifts in drought patterns. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate sub-seasonal and seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought hazards across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under projected future climate conditions and LULC patterns. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent future climate for 2025-2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future LULC distributions. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks across different YRB zones are evaluated through a copula-based risk assessment approach, based on the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. The results indicate that sub-seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts will likely be the primary concern moving forward. Specifically, the upper YRB (zones A, B, C) exhibits greater vulnerability to sub-seasonal meteorological drought, while the Loess Plateau (zones C, E) shows higher susceptibility to sub-seasonal hydrological drought. Moreover, zone F in the downstream region may experience increased seasonal hydrological drought risk due to projected urban expansion in the middle and lower portions of the YRB.
“…Twenty-first century climate projections for northwest China suggest sites, such as Suoyang, are facing future climate uncertainties. CMIP5 11 , 24 and regional climate models (PRECIS 25 , 26 , RegCM3 27 , 28 , RegCM4 12 and CMM5 27 ), show rainfall projections ranging from a 10% decrease 10 , 12 to 50% increase 11 , 12 , 28 , while wind velocity projections vary from a decrease of 1 ms −1 to an increase of 1 ms −1 27 , 29 . Figure 1 The site of Suoyang Ancient city ( a–c ), a plan view of the initial model setup ( d ) and the three major deterioration features ( e–g ).…”
Uncertainties over future climatic conditions pose significant challenges when selecting appropriate conservation strategies for heritage sites. Choosing effective strategies is especially important for earthen heritage sites located in dryland regions, as many are experiencing rapid environmentally-driven deterioration. We use a newly developed cellular automaton model (ViSTA-HD), to evaluate the environmental deterioration risk, over a 100-year period, under a range of potential climate and conservation scenarios. Results show increased wind velocities could substantially increase the overall deterioration risk, implying the need for wind-reducing conservation strategies. In contrast, predicted increases in rainfall are not likely to increase the overall deterioration risk, despite greater risk of rain-driven deterioration features. Of the four conservation strategies tested in our model, deterioration risk under all climatic scenarios was best reduced by increasing the coverage of natural, randomly-distributed vegetation to 80%. We suggest this approach could be an appropriate long-term conservation strategy for other earthen sites in dryland regions.
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