Deterioration risk of dryland earthen heritage sites facing future climatic uncertainty

Abstract

Uncertainties over future climatic conditions pose significant challenges when selecting appropriate conservation strategies for heritage sites. Choosing effective strategies is especially important for earthen heritage sites located in dryland regions, as many are experiencing rapid environmentally-driven deterioration. We use a newly developed cellular automaton model (ViSTA-HD), to evaluate the environmental deterioration risk, over a 100-year period, under a range of potential climate and conservation scenarios. Results show increased wind velocities could substantially increase the overall deterioration risk, implying the need for wind-reducing conservation strategies. In contrast, predicted increases in rainfall are not likely to increase the overall deterioration risk, despite greater risk of rain-driven deterioration features. Of the four conservation strategies tested in our model, deterioration risk under all climatic scenarios was best reduced by increasing the coverage of natural, randomly-distributed vegetation to 80%. We suggest this approach could be an appropriate long-term conservation strategy for other earthen sites in dryland regions.

The transfer of heritage modelling from research to practice

“…A range of model types were present, including computational fluid dynamic [4,[21][22][23][24], thermodynamic [25,26], biological [27] and fuzzy logic [28][29][30] models. The models described had been used to capture processes such as moisture regimes [31][32][33], pollutant deposition [4,34], wind-driven sediment abrasion [5,21,23] and salt weathering [35,36]. Our selection does not capture all process-based models that relate to heritage, but our dataset encompasses a range of model types, applications and approaches that give a reasonable understanding of the current state of modelling within heritage science.…”

“…[4,23] and over the 21st century e.g. [5,9,[43][44][45]. Similarly, a range of spatial scales were modelled from processes occurring inside/on heritage materials e.g.…”

“…[6,27] or space e.g. [5,46], using graphs [25,33,47], Tables [9,25] and maps [43,46]. Model outputs that were concisely presented and in a format that could be intuitively interpreted without relying on constant reference to text e.g.…”

“…In a very practice-oriented field such as heritage science, process-based models provide a tool for engaging with changes to heritage objects or sites e.g. [4][5][6]. These models, which represent parts of, or interactions within a given system, can be used to undertake highly varied experiments that would not be possible for practical or ethical reasons, due to the potential for damaging heritage.…”

Ecological Risk Assessment and Protection Zone Identification for Linear Cultural Heritage: A Case Study of the Ming Great Wall

“…Meanwhile, rainfall and superimposed effects of soluble salts accelerate the cracking, bottom erosion, and collapse of the Great Wall sites [ 13 ]. Richards et al [ 14 ] used the Vegetation and Sediment Transport model for the Heritage Deterioration model to assess the risk of environmental degradation in the Great Wall of Han Dynasty during a 100-year period and found that the increase in wind speed may greatly increase the overall deterioration. In addition, due to constructive and developmental destruction, the body of the Great Wall was severely damaged [ 15 ].…”