Significant Siberian Vegetation Change is Inevitably Brought on by the Changing Climate

Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-24409-9_10

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…These shifts, in turn, are projected to cause large-scale vegetation-climate feedbacks, in particular as albedo decreases with increasing forest cover 5 , which has been proposed as a major cause of the strong Arctic warming that occurred during the mid-Pliocene 6 . The Siberian boreal larch forests encompass over 260 million ha 7 , and both the extent and distribution of forested area 8 , as well as the distribution of the major forest-forming larch ( Larix ) species are projected to change 9 . The three recognized larch species, Larix sibirica Ledeb., Larix gmelinii (Rupr.)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling

Epp

Kruse

Kath

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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Changes in species’ distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species’ range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling

Epp

Kruse

Kath

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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“…We correlated 7.6 million pixels from this map (0.01°o f a resolution) with three maps of climatic indices: GDD t>5 , DD <0 and annual precipitation, cm, by the Using this regression we modeled the 2 m ALD over Asian Russia. In our previous bioclimatic modeling studies we accepted permafrost border position as that of an Active Layer Depth of 2 m (ALD, depth of seasonal thaw) that was necessary for all trees but Larix daurica to grow on soils underlain by permafrost (Tchebakova et al 1993, Tchebakova et al 2009, Tchebakova et al 2010a, 2010b, 2016. We correlated the current ALD of 2 m outlined in the Malevsky-Malevich et al (2001) map to three climatic indices: Negative Degree-Days and Growing Degree-Days, base 5°C calculated from January and July mean temperatures respectively and annual precipitation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

Parfenova

Tchebakova

Soja

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961-1990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1-2 categories from 'low' to 'relatively high' which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning.

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“…Timber extraction and site preparation currently cause large wildfires in the Arctic Council region, including the 2014 Västmanland fire in Sweden (Lidskog et al, 2019), which actively burned for 18 days creating a burn scar of over 14,000 ha (Pimentel and Arheimer, 2021). Northward agricultural expansion will likely increase human-caused open burning as wheat and maize establish in previously permafrost areas of West Siberia (Parfenova et al, 2019), expanding into the cold regions of the boreal zone (King et al, 2018) and nearing the Arctic Circle for Central Siberia (Tchebakova et al, 2016). Of course, the northward agricultural expansion will also be dependent on local and/or in-https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-83 Preprint.…”

Section: Drivers Of Arctic Fire Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, anticipated transitions of boreal forest to deciduous forest stands would decrease fire risk in eastern Canada and small regions of interior Alaska (Terrier et al, 2013;Foster et al, 2019;Mekonnen et al, 2019). Third, expansion of grassland ecosystems is predicated in northwestern Canada and Alaska (Wang et al 2019;Whitman et al, 2019) and Siberia (Tchebakova et al, 2009(Tchebakova et al, , 2016. Fourth, increased lightning strikes will in turn increase fire risk in Alaska (Veraverbeke et al 2017) but also northern Europe (Púčik et al, 2017).…”

Section: Climate Change and Future Arctic Fire Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviews & Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century

McCarty¹,

Aalto²,

Paunu³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. In recent years, the Pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesises current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the Pan-Arctic has consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following: (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e., lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the Pan-Arctic and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70° N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use, forest-steppe to steppe, tundra-to-taiga, and coniferous-to-deciduous forest transitions in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning. However, at the country- and landscape-scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50° N and 65° N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring, respectively. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60° N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65° N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and future Arctic wildfire seasons potential. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems and Pan-Arctic communities.

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Significant Siberian Vegetation Change is Inevitably Brought on by the Changing Climate

Cited by 6 publications

References 19 publications

Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling

Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling

Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

Reviews & Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century

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Significant Siberian Vegetation Change is Inevitably Brought on by the Changing Climate

Cited by 6 publications

References 19 publications

Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling

Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling

Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

Reviews &amp; Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century

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Reviews & Syntheses: Arctic Fire Regimes and Emissions in the 21st Century