Abstract. The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1) provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO 2 , and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporalCorrespondence to: C. Wiedinmyer (christin@ucar.edu) and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

No abstract

Abstract. The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1) provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the estimates agree closely with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

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[1] In the biomass, soils, and peatlands of Siberia, boreal Russia holds one of the largest pools of terrestrial carbon. Because Siberia is located where some of the largest temperature increases are expected to occur under current climate change scenarios, stored carbon has the potential to be released with associated changes in fire regimes. Our concentration is on estimating a wide range of current and potential emissions from Siberia on the basis of three modeled scenarios. An area burned product of Siberia is introduced, which spans from 1998 through 2002. Emissions models are spatially explicit; therefore area burned is extracted from associated ecoregions for each year. Carbon consumption estimates are presented for 23 unique ecoregions across Siberia, which range from 3.4 to 75.4 t C ha À1 for three classes of severity. Total direct carbon emissions range from the traditional scenario estimate of 116 Tg C in 1999 (6.9 M ha burned) to the extreme scenario estimate of 520 Tg C in 2002 (11.2 M ha burned), which are equivalent to 5 and 20%, respectively, of total global carbon emissions from forest and grassland burning. Our results suggest that disparities in the amount of carbon stored in unique ecosystems and the severity of fire events can affect total direct carbon emissions by as much as 50%. Additionally, in extreme fire years, total direct carbon emissions can be 37-41% greater than in normal fire years, owing to increased soil organic matter consumption. Mean standard scenario estimates of CO 2 (555-1031 Tg), CO (43-80 Tg), CH 4 (2.4-4.5 Tg), TNMHC (2.2-4.1 Tg), and carbonaceous aerosols (4.6-8.6 Tg) represent 10, 15, 19, 12 and 26%, respectively, of the global estimates from forest and grassland burning. Accounting for smoldering combustion in soils and peatlands results in increases in CO, CH 4 , and TNMHC and decreases in CO 2 emitted from fire events.

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Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

Global ozone analyses, based on assimilation of stratospheric profile and ozone column measurements, and NOy predictions from the Real‐time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) are used to estimate the ozone and NOy budget over the continental United States during the July–August 2004 Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment–North America (INTEX‐A). Comparison with aircraft, satellite, surface, and ozonesonde measurements collected during INTEX‐A show that RAQMS captures the main features of the global and continental U.S. distribution of tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, and NOy with reasonable fidelity. Assimilation of stratospheric profile and column ozone measurements is shown to have a positive impact on the RAQMS upper tropospheric/lower stratosphere ozone analyses, particularly during the period when SAGE III limb scattering measurements were available. Eulerian ozone and NOy budgets during INTEX‐A show that the majority of the continental U.S. export occurs in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere poleward of the tropopause break, a consequence of convergence of tropospheric and stratospheric air in this region. Continental U.S. photochemically produced ozone was found to be a minor component of the total ozone export, which was dominated by stratospheric ozone during INTEX‐A. The unusually low photochemical ozone export is attributed to anomalously cold surface temperatures during the latter half of the INTEX‐A mission, which resulted in net ozone loss during the first 2 weeks of August. Eulerian NOy budgets are shown to be very consistent with previously published estimates. The NOy export efficiency was estimated to be 24%, with NOx + PAN accounting for 54% of the total NOy export during INTEX‐A.