Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

Abstract

In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961-1990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1-2 categories from 'low' to 'relatively high' which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning.

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

“…Archard et al (2008) estimated 65 % of all forest fires in the Russian Federation were caused by human ignition, and a more recent study found approximately half of all fires in the Sakha Republic are caused by anthropogenic activities (Kirillina et al, 2020). Throughout boreal Canada, anthropogenic factors increase fire probabil-ity (Parisien et al, 2016), with humans igniting most fires close to roads while lightning-caused fires are responsible for the majority of burned area in the more remote locations (Gralewicz et al, 2012). Blouin et al (2016) found that 45 % of wildfires in Alberta were started by lightning but were responsible for 71 % of burned area.…”

Climate Warming Impacts on Distributions of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) Seed Zones and Seed Mass across Russia in the 21st Century

“…However, Scots pine may break through further north up, to 70 • N, along the broad valleys of the big Siberian rivers, the Yenisei and the Lena, in eastern Siberia, where a deeper active layer thaws in the summer, allowing for Scots pine to succeed [25]. The permafrost border distribution across Russia was calculated using growing GDD 5 , NDD, and annual precipitation (R 2 = 0.78), as was also the case with our bioclimatic Siberian vegetation model [26,27]. Seed mass was predicted within the potential P. sylvestris range and was overlapped with the permafrost border to separate actual and non-realized (north-eastwards of the border) seed zones in both contemporary and future climates.…”

Утицај климатских промена на политичке немире и сукобе у Африци: студија случаја Етиопијe

“…Може се рећи да је међународна заједница сажела проблем еколошких криза у три сегмента: 1. превенција и спречавање даље деградације животне средине и очување природних ресурса; 2. санација и развој области угрожених еколошким катастрофама и 3. спречавање и решавање сукоба као последица недостатка ресурса и њихове трајне деградације. Научна предвиђања промена у животној средини и последица миграција људи су од суштинског значаја за развој стратегија за дугорочно економско планирање и друштвени развој, као и постизање благостања и просперитета (Parfenova et al, 2019).…”