Sex (And Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election

Abstract

Do women vote for women and men for men? Do visible minorities vote for minority candidates, and white voters for white candidates? And what happens when a minority woman appears on the ballot? This study tests for the presence of gender and ethnic affinity voting in the Toronto mayoral election of 2014, where Olivia Chow was the only woman and only visible minority candidate among the three major contenders. Our analysis, which draws on a survey of eligible Toronto voters, is the first to examine the interactive effects of sex and ethnicity on vote choice in Canada in the context of a non-partisan election and in a non-experimental manner. We find strong evidence of ethnic affinity voting and show that Chow received stronger support from ethnic Chinese voters than from other minority groups. Our results also reveal that gender was related to vote choice but only when connected with race.

Is the Low Electoral Turnout of Indigenous People a Myth? Evidence from Subnational Elections in Chile, 2012-2017

“…b) Mapuches vote more in local elections when the mayoral candidates are also Mapuche. c) In line with other research (Bird et al, 2016;Contreras & Morales, 2017;Van der Zwan et al, 2020), this study provides more evidence on ethnic affinity voting. Indigenous people not only vote more for candidates who are like them in ethnic terms but turn out in greater numbers to vote when the supply of candidates is also ethnically alike.…”

“…They include which electoral systems contribute most to a better representation of these minorities (Lublin, 2017b;Ordeshook & Shvetsova, 1994); the capacity of parties or ethnic movements for mobilizing electors (Ambrecht & Pachon, 1974;Arthur, 2009;Basedau & Stroh, 2012;Chandra, 2004Chandra, , 2005Hahn & Almy, 1971;Van Cott, 2005); and the presence of ethnic candidates who care able to strengthen the descriptive representation of these minorities (Dabin et al, 2018;Fisher et al, 2015). In the latter case, ethnic affinity voting (Bird et al, 2016;Dancygier, 2017;Featherman, 1983;Kamin, 1958;Manzano & Sánchez, 2010;McConnaughy et al, 2011;Piliavin, 1987;Van der Zwan et al, 2020;Wolfinger, 1965), also known as ethnic solidarity voting (Contreras & Morales, 2017;Toro & Jaramillo, 2014), may be present.…”

Gender, Race and Political Ambition: The Case of Ontario School Board Elections

“…Research activity in the area of local electoral politics has increased significantly in recent years (Breux et al, 2017;Lucas, 2015;McGregor et al, 2016;Siemiatycki, 2011), with much academic effort focused on the representation of women or racial minorities. This work has broadly concluded that women and/or racial minorities are underrepresented in local government, as they are at other orders of government (Bird, 2015;Bird et al, 2016;Breux et al, 2018;McGregor et al, 2016;Spicer et al, 2017;Tolley, 2011). However, despite the growing scholarly interest in Canadian local elections, there has been little attention paid to school boards and their elections (which are held concurrently with municipal elections).…”

Ethno-Racial Appeals and the Production of Political Capital: Evidence from Chicago and Toronto

“…Research examining ethno-racial appeals retrieved from field settings is exceptionally rare, perhaps because such data are difficult to procure. Studies of urban politics reveal the importance of ethno-racial categories in municipal voting (e.g., Barreto 2007; Bird et al 2016; Hajnal and Trounstine 2014; Philpot and Walton 2007; Wolfinger 1965) but rarely illuminate the specific strategies that campaigns use to steer voters in this direction (but see Benjamin 2017). Even case studies of urban politics contain little detail in this regard (e.g., Ferman 1996; Kaufmann 2004; Stone 1989).…”

“…Race and ethnicity presumably matter especially in municipal elections, where turnout is low and partisan cues are often absent (Kaufmann 2004; Trounstine 2013). Scholars have repeatedly documented the strong effect of ethno-racial categories on urban voting (Barreto 2007; Bird et al 2016; Hajnal and Trounstine 2014; Kaufmann 2004; Philpot and Walton 2007; Wolfinger 1965). Nevertheless, the specific mechanisms—including ethno-racial appeals—that produce ethno-racial voting have rarely been examined in detail (but see Benjamin 2017, Metz and Tate 1995).…”