SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

Crosby, Norma; Heynderickx, D.; Jiggens, Piers; Aran, A.; Sanahuja, B.; Truscott, P.R.; Lei, F.; Jacobs, Carla; Poedts, Stefaan; Gabriel, Stephen; Sandberg, Ingmar; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, A.

doi:10.1002/2013sw001008

Cited by 53 publications

(40 citation statements)

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“…Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM) (Schwadron 2010), Predictions of radiation from REleASE, EMMREM and Data Incorporating CRaTER, COSTEP and other SEP measurements (PREDICCS) (Schwadron 2012), Solar Energetic Particle MODel (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al 2010), SOLar Particle ENgineering Code (SOLPENCO) (Aran et al 2006), and SOLPENCO2 (provides SEP modelling away from 1 AU to the SEP statistical model of the SEPEM project (Crosby et al 2015))) (b) Empirical models (e.g. University of Malaga Solar Energetic Particle (UMASEP) system (Núñez 2011), Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) (Posner 2007), Proton Prediction System (PPS) , PROTONS system (Balch 2008), GLE Alert Plus (Kuwabara et al 2006;Souvatzoglou et al 2014) and Laurenza's approach (Laurenza et al 2009)) In some cases forecasting systems rely on methods from both categories such as the SEPForecast tool built under the EU FP7 COMESEP project (263252) (Crosby et al 2012), (http://www.comesep.eu/alert/).…”

Section: Mitigation Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather: Science and Applications

Malandraki

Crosby

2017

Astrophysics and Space Science Library

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This chapter provides an overview on solar energetic particles (SEPs) and their association to space weather, both from the scientific as well as from the applications perspective. A historical overview is presented on how SEPs were discovered in the 1940s and how our understanding has increased and evolved since then. Current state-of-the-art based on unique measurements obtained in the 3-dimensional heliosphere (e.g. by the Ulysses, ACE, STEREO spacecraft) and their analysis is also presented. Key open questions on SEP research expected to be answered in view of future missions that will explore the solar corona and inner heliosphere are highlighted. This is followed by an introduction to why SEPs are studied, describing the risks that SEP events pose on technology and human health. Mitigation strategies for solar radiation storms as well as examples of current SEP forecasting systems are reviewed, in context of the two novel real-time SEP forecasting tools developed within the EU H2020 HESPERIA project.

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Section: Mitigation Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather: Science and Applications

Malandraki

Crosby

2017

Astrophysics and Space Science Library

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“…These two particular events were chosen in order to compare the results with our previous simulations of the events, thereby allowing us to study the influence of the new codes on the Q(VR) relations on which the SEPEM/SOLPENCO2 tool is based Crosby et al 2015).…”

Section: Application To Two Large Sep Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this way, Aran et al (2006) built the SOLPENCO tool that was later on verified against data (Aran 2007;Aran et al 2008). In another approach, the SaP model and the Q(VR) relation were used to generate 5-200 MeV proton synthetic intensity-time profiles in the SEPEM/SOLPENCO2 tool (Crosby et al 2015). In this case, the outputs of the model, using average values of k (across a range of energies) of the Q(VR) relation, were compared with six SEP events, and the synthetic peak intensities and fluences were scaled to the observed 1 AU values in order to obtain predictions of these quantities for observers located at other radial distances (from 0.2 AU to 1.6 AU) along the same IMF line passing through the observer at 1 AU.…”

Section: Synthetic Intensity-time Profilesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This version incorporates a twodimensional (2D) MHD model of shock propagation that enables the application of the Q(VR) relation to the prediction of proton intensity-time profiles up to 200 MeV. Based on this model, we developed the SOLPENCO2 tool (Crosby et al 2015). This tool provides predictions of 5-200 MeV proton peak intensities and event fluences of SEP events for virtual observers located at heliocentric radial distances between 0.2 AU and 1.6 AU.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The derived radial dependencies are used as input to the SEPEM statistical modelling tools for interplanetary missions 3 . Results from the SEPEM project are presented in Crosby et al (2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

Pomoell

Aran

Jacobs

et al. 2015

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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We have developed a new version of a model that combines a two-dimensional Sun-to-Earth magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the propagation of a CME-driven shock and a simulation of the transport of particles along the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line connecting the shock front and the observer. We assume that the shock-accelerated particles are injected at the point along the shock front that intersects this IMF line, i.e. at the cobpoint. Novel features of the model are an improved solar wind model and an enhanced fully automated algorithm to extract the necessary plasma characteristics from the shock simulation. In this work, the new algorithms have been employed to simulate the 2000 April 4 and the 2006 December 13 SEP events. In addition to quantifying the performance of the new model with respect to results obtained using previous versions of the shock-and-particle model, we investigate the semi-empirical relation between the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles, Q, and the jump in speed across the shock, VR, known as the Q(VR) relation. Our results show that while the magnetic field and density compression at the shock front is markedly different than in our previous modeling, the evolution of VR remains largely similar. As a result, we confirm that a simple relation can still be established between Q and VR, which enables the computation of synthetic intensity-time profiles at any location in interplanetary space. Furthermore, the new shock extraction tool is found to yield improved results being in general more robust. These results are important not only with regard to efforts to develop coupled magnetohydrodynamic and particle simulation models, but also to improve space weather related software tools that aim to predict the peak intensities, fluences and proton intensity-time profiles of SEP events (such as the SOLPENCO tool).

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Validation of the effect of cross‐calibrated GOES solar proton effective energies on derived integral fluxes by comparison with STEREO observations

et al. 2017

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The derivation of integral fluxes from instrument coincidence rates requires accurate knowledge of their effective energies. Recent cross calibrations of GOES with the high‐energy‐resolution Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 Goddard Medium Energy Experiment (GME) (Sandberg et al., Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, 4435, 2014a) gave significantly lower effective energies than those currently used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to calculate solar proton integral fluxes from GOES rates. This implies systematically lower integral fluxes than currently produced. This paper quantifies the differences between the current and the cross‐calibrated GOES integral fluxes and validates the latter. Care is taken to rule out the spectral resolution of the measurements or different integration algorithms as major contributors to differences in the magnitudes of the derived integral fluxes. The lower effective energies are validated by comparison with the independent, high‐resolution observations by the STEREO Low‐Energy Telescope (LET) and High‐Energy Telescope (HET) during the December 2006 solar proton events. The current GOES product is similar to the >10 MeV integral fluxes recalculated by using the Sandberg et al. [] effective energies but is substantially greater at higher energies. (The median ratios of the current to the recalculated fluxes are 1.1 at >10 MeV, 1.7 at >30 MeV, 2.1 at >60 MeV, and 2.9 at >100 MeV.) By virtue of this validation, the cross‐calibrated GOES integral fluxes should be considered more accurate than the current NOAA product. The results of this study also demonstrate good consistency between the two long‐term IMP 8 GME and STEREO LET and HET solar proton data sets.

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SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

Cited by 53 publications

References 50 publications

Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather: Science and Applications

Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather: Science and Applications

Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

Validation of the effect of cross‐calibrated GOES solar proton effective energies on derived integral fluxes by comparison with STEREO observations

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