The implementation and first results of the new space weather forecasting-targeted inner heliosphere model “European heliospheric forecasting information asset” (EUHFORIA) are presented. EUHFORIA consists of two major components: a coronal model and a heliosphere model including coronal mass ejections. The coronal model provides data-driven solar wind plasma parameters at 0.1 AU by constructing a magnetic field model of the coronal large-scale magnetic field and employing empirical relations to determine the plasma state such as the solar wind speed and mass density. These are then used as boundary conditions to drive a three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamics model of the inner heliosphere up to 2 AU. CMEs are injected into the ambient solar wind modeled using the cone model, with their parameters obtained from fits to imaging observations. In addition to detailing the modeling methodology, an initial validation run is presented. The results feature a highly dynamic heliosphere that the model is able to capture in good agreement with in situ observations. Finally, future horizons for the model are outlined.

Abstract. In this paper we study the occurrence rate and solar origin of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using data from the two Solar TErrestrial RElation Observatory (STEREO) and the Wind spacecraft. We perform a statistical survey of ICMEs during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Observations by multiple, well-separated spacecraft show that even at the time of extremely weak solar activity a considerable number of ICMEs were present in the interplanetary medium. Soon after the beginning of the STEREO science mission in January 2007 the number of ICMEs declined to less than one ICME per month, but in late 2008 the ICME rate clearly increased at each spacecraft although no apparent increase in the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurred. We suggest that the near-ecliptic ICME rate can increase due to CMEs that have been guided towards the equator from their high-latitude source regions by the magnetic fields in the polar coronal holes. We consider two case studies to highlight the effects of the polar magnetic fields and CME deflection taking advantage of STEREO observations when the two spacecraft were in the quadrature configuration (i.e. separated by about 90 degrees). We study in detail the solar and interplanetary consequences of two CMEs that both originated from high-latitude source regions on 2 November 2008. The first CME was slow (radial speed 298 km/s) and associated with a huge polar crown prominence eruption. The CME was guided by polar coronal hole fields to the equator and it produced a clear flux rope ICME in the near-ecliptic solar wind. The second CME (radial speed 438 km/s) originated from an active region 11007 at latitude 35° N. This CME propagated clearly north of the first CME and no interplanetary consequences were identified. The two case studies suggest that slow and elongated CMEs have difficulties overcoming the straining effect of the overlying field and as a consequence they are guided by the polar coronal fields and cause in-situ effects close to the ecliptic plane. The 3-D propagation directions and CME widths obtained by using the forward modelling technique were consistent with the solar and in-situ observations.

Context. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the primary source of strong space weather disturbances at Earth. Their geoeffectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic fields, for which reliable predictions at Earth are not possible with traditional cone CME models. Aims. We study two well-observed Earth-directed CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUH-FORIA) model, testing for the first time the predictive capabilities of a linear force-free spheromak CME model initialised using parameters derived from remote-sensing observations. Methods. Using observation-based CME input parameters, we perform magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the events with EUH-FORIA, using the cone and spheromak CME models.Results. Simulations show that spheromak CMEs propagate faster than cone CMEs when initialised with the same kinematic parameters. We interpret these differences as result of different Lorentz forces acting within cone and spheromak CMEs, which lead to different CME expansions in the heliosphere. Such discrepancies can be mitigated by initialising spheromak CMEs with a reduced speed corresponding to the radial speed only. Results at Earth evidence that the spheromak model improves the predictions of B (B z ) up to 12-60 (22-40) percentage points compared to a cone model. Considering virtual spacecraft located within ±10 • around Earth, B (B z ) predictions reach 45-70% (58-78%) of the observed peak values. The spheromak model shows inaccurate predictions of the magnetic field parameters at Earth for CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line.Conclusions. The spheromak model successfully predicts the CME properties and arrival time in the case of strictly Earth-directed events, while modelling CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line requires extra care due to limitations related to the assumed spherical shape. The spatial variability of modelling results and the typical uncertainties in the reconstructed CME direction advocate the need to consider predictions at Earth and at virtual spacecraft located around it.

A key aim in space weather research is to be able to use remote-sensing observations of the solar atmosphere to extend the lead time of predicting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME). In order to achieve this, the magnetic structure of the CME as it leaves the Sun must be known. In this article we address this issue by developing a method to determine the intrinsic flux rope type of a CME solely from solar disk observations. We use several well known proxies for the magnetic helicity sign, the axis orientation, and the axial magnetic field direction to predict the magnetic structure of the interplanetary flux rope. We present two case studies: the 2 June 2011 and the 14 June 2012 CMEs. Both of these events erupted from an active region and, despite having clear in situ counterparts, their eruption characteristics were relatively complex. The first event was associated with an active region filament that erupted in two stages, while for the other event the eruption originated from a relatively high coronal altitude and the source region did not feature the presence of a filament. Our magnetic helicity sign proxies include the analysis of magnetic tongues, soft X-ray and/or extreme-ultraviolet sigmoids, coronal arcade skew, filament emission and absorption threads, and filament rotation. Since the inclination of the post-eruption arcades was not clear, we use the tilt of the polarity inversion line to determine the flux rope axis orientation, and coronal dimmings to determine the flux rope footpoints and, therefore, the direction of the axial magnetic field. The comparison of the estimated intrinsic flux rope structure to in situ observations at the Lagrangian point L1 indicated a good agreement with the predictions. Our results highlight the flux rope type determination techniques that are particularly useful for active region eruptions, where most geoeffective CMEs originate.

In this work, we present results of a time-dependent data-driven numerical simulation developed to study the dynamics of coronal active region magnetic fields. The evolving boundary condition driving the model, the photospheric electric field, is inverted using a time sequence of vector magnetograms as input. We invert three distinct electric field datasets for a single active region. All three electric fields reproduce the observed evolution of the normal component of the magnetic field. Two of the datasets are constructed so as to match the energy input into the corona to that provided by a reference estimate. Using the three inversions as input to a time-dependent magnetofrictional model, we study the response of the coronal magnetic field to the driving electric fields. The simulations reveal the magnetic field evolution to be sensitive to the input electric field despite the normal component of the magnetic field evolving identically and the total energy injection being largely similar. Thus, we demonstrate that the total energy injection is not sufficient to characterize the evolution of the coronal magnetic field: coronal evolution can be very different despite similar energy injections. We find the relative helicity to be an important additional metric that allows one to distinguish the simulations. In particular, the simulation with the highest relative helicity content produces a coronal flux rope that subsequently erupts, largely in agreement with extreme-ultraviolet imaging observations of the corresponding event. Our results suggest that time-dependent data-driven simulations that employ carefully constructed driving boundary conditions offer a valuable tool for modeling and characterizing the evolution of coronal magnetic fields. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11207-019-1430-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Aims.We introduce a new model for coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that has been implemented in the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) inner heliosphere model EUHFORIA. Utilising a linear force-free spheromak (LFFS) solution, the model provides an intrinsic magnetic field structure for the CME. As a result, the new model has the potential to predict the magnetic components of CMEs at Earth. In this paper, we present the implementation of the new model and show the capability of the new model. Methods. We present initial validation runs for the new magnetised CME model by considering the same set of events as used in the initial validation run of EUHFORIA that employed the Cone model. In particular, we have focused on modelling the CME that was responsible for creating the largest geomagnetic disturbance (Dst index). Two scenarios are discussed: one where a single magnetised CME is launched and another in which we launch all five Earth-directed CMEs that were observed during the considered time period. Four out of the five CMEs were modelled using the Cone model. Results. In the first run, where the propagation of a single magnetized CME is considered, we find that the magnetic field components at Earth are well reproduced as compared to in-situ spacecraft data. Considering a virtual spacecraft that is separated approximately seven heliographic degrees from the position of Earth, we note that the centre of the magnetic cloud is missing Earth and a considerably larger magnetic field strength can be found when shifting to that location. For the second run, launching four Cone CMEs and one LFFS CME, we notice that the simulated magnetised CME is arriving at the same time as in the corresponding full Cone model run. We find that to achieve this, the speed of the CME needs to be reduced in order to compensate for the expansion of the CME due to the addition of the magnetic field inside the CME. The reduced initial speed of the CME and the added magnetic field structure give rise to a very similar propagation of the CME with approximately the same arrival time at 1 au. In contrast to the Cone model, however, the magnetised CME is able to predict the magnetic field components at Earth. However, due to the interaction between the Cone model CMEs and the magnetised CME, the magnetic field amplitude is significantly lower than for the run using a single magnetised CME. Conclusions. We have presented the LFFS model that is able to simulate and predict the magnetic field components and the propagation of magnetised CMEs in the inner heliosphere and at Earth. We note that shifting towards a virtual spacecraft in the neighbourhood of Earth can give rise to much stronger magnetic field components. This gives the option of adding a grid of virtual spacecrafts to give a range of values for the magnetic field components.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst min = −142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its B z until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the B z amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum B z amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).

Estimates of the photospheric magnetic, electric and plasma velocity fields are essential for studying the dynamics of the solar atmosphere, for example through the derivative quantities of Poynting and relative helicity flux and by using of the fields to obtain the lower boundary condition for datadriven coronal simulations. In this paper we study the performance of a data processing and electric field inversion approach that requires only high-resolution and high-cadence line-of-sight or vector magnetograms-which we obtain from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The approach does not require any photospheric velocity estimates, and the lacking velocity information is compensated using ad hoc assumptions. We show that the free parameters of these assumptions can be optimized to reproduce the time evolution of the total magnetic energy injection through the photosphere in NOAA AR 11158, when compared to the recent state-of-the-art estimates for this active region. However, we find that the relative magnetic helicity injection is reproduced poorly reaching at best a modest underestimation. We discuss also the effect of some of the data processing details on the results, including the masking of the noise-dominated pixels and the tracking method of the active region, both of which have not received much attention in the literature so far. In most cases the effect of these details is small, but when the optimization of the free parameters of the ad hoc assumptions is considered a consistent use of the noise mask is required. The results found in this paper imply that the data processing and electric field inversion approach that uses only the photospheric magnetic field information offers a flexible and straightforward way to obtain photospheric magnetic and electric field estimates suitable for practical applications such as coronal modeling studies.