Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to ocean warmth

Abstract

[1] The strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as the oceans heat up especially over the North Atlantic. Sensitivity of hurricane intensity to ocean heating is an important variable for understanding what hurricanes might be like in the future, but reliable estimates are not possible with short time-series records. Studies using paired values of intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST) are also limited because most pairs represent hurricanes in an environment less than thermodynamically optimal. Here we overcome these limitations using spatial grids and a model for the limiting hurricane intensity by region and estimate the sensitivity to be 7.9 AE 1.19 m s À K À1 (s.e.) for hurricanes over seas hotter than 25 C across the North Atlantic. Results indicate the potential for stronger hurricanes during the 21st century as oceans continue to warm over this part of the world.

Quantifying the sensitivity of maximum, limiting, and potential tropical cyclone intensity to SST: Observations versus the FSU/COAPS global climate model

“…Building on this earlier research, Elsner et al . [] approach the problem using the spatial tessellation framework first introduced in Elsner et al . [].…”

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

“…Observational and modelling studies suggest that the recent multidecadal trend of rising sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic’s Main Development Region (MDR) may have increased Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and duration123, and shifted storm tracks poleward45. Some studies ascribe this oceanic warming to a multi-decadal SST periodicity known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)67 associated with the strength of thermohaline circulation78 or large-scale atmospheric circulation910, while others implicate rising anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs)1112.…”

The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature

“…It is evident from Figures 5c and 5d that neither model generates strong TCs, and more importantly, the strongest model-generated TCs do not necessarily occur over the warmest water. Although the range of per region maximum intensities from these two models is much smaller than the observed range, our current understanding of TCs suggests that a statistically Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 10.1002/2016MS000635 significant sensitivity to SST should exist for these model-generated TCs [Emanuel, 1986;DeMaria and Kaplan, 1994;Elsner et al, 2008Elsner et al, , 2012b.…”

“…Therefore, the sensitivity of maximum TC intensity to SST is a particularly useful metric for model comparison because it may yield insight into how well model-generated TCs represent the physical processes that dictate TC intensity. High-resolution models (i.e., models with horizontal grid spacing near 0.258) may be able to simulate TCs with intensity distributions that resemble what we observe, but do the strongest model-generated TCs form over the warmest SSTs, as is the case for observed TCs [Elsner et al, 2012b]? Strazzo et al [2015] demonstrate the ability of the Florida State University-Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU-COAPS) model (0.948) to reproduce the relationship between the theoretically defined potential intensity and SST despite that model's inability to simulate the observed sensitivity of maximum intensity to SST.…”