The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature

Strazzo, Sarah; Elsner, James B.; LaRow, Timothy E.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Wehner, Michael; Zhao, Ming

doi:10.1002/2016ms000635

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Ng and Chan (2012) found that the interannual variation of TC activity over the BOB during October−December can be attributed to the variation in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are largely forced by ENSO's effect. Many model studies have been carried out recently in relation to TCs and SST over different ocean basins (e.g., Zhang et al, 2015Zhang et al, , 2019Strazzo et al, 2016). Zhang et al (2019) proposed that a strong association exists between tropical Atlantic SST and cyclone frequency over the ARB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

et al. 2020

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In this paper we examine the epochal changes in the frequency of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the pre-onset and onset phases of the monsoon. We consider three epochs; namely, the early (1955−74), middle (1975−94) and recent (1995−2014) epochs. It is found that the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) decreases throughout the three epochs. Over the Arabian Sea (ARB), however, there is a decrease in the early epoch, before then reaching a minimum in the middle epoch followed by an increase in the recent epoch, thus exhibiting epochal variability. Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters along with Genesis Potential Index (GPI) are examined to understand the frequency variation in cyclogenesis over the ARB and BOB. Over the ARB, thermodynamic factors such as mid-level moisture, surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, and dynamic parameters such as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, are favorable during the early and recent epochs but unfavorable during the middle epoch, and these results are found to be consistent with the observed epochal variability in the frequency of cyclogenesis. However, all these influential parameters are found to have decreased over the BOB during the entire 60-year period.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

et al. 2020

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“…Recent advances in high-performance computing technologies have enabled multi-decadal simulations at “TC permitting” resolutions of ~25 km or finer ( 29 , 30 ). Models of this class vary considerably in the realism of their simulated storms but some are able to produce category 5 storms with credible relationships between maximum wind speeds and minimum central pressures ( 31 – 33 ). Storm counts and track distributions also compare favorably with observations in some of the models.…”

Section: Changes In Maximum Wind Speeds Of Tc Permitting Climate Mode...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

Wehner,

Kossin

2024

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Global warming increases available sensible and latent heat energy, increasing the thermodynamic potential wind intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). Supported by theory, observations, and modeling, this causes a shift in mean TC intensity, which tends to manifest most clearly at the greatest intensities. The Saffir–Simpson scale for categorizing damage based on the wind intensity of TCs was introduced in the early 1970s and remains the most commonly used metric for public communication of the level of wind hazard that a TC poses. Because the scale is open-ended and does not extend beyond category 5 (70 m/s windspeed or greater), the level of wind hazard conveyed by the scale remains constant regardless of how far the intensity extends beyond 70 m/s. This may be considered a weakness of the scale, particularly considering that the destructive potential of the wind increases exponentially. Here, we consider how this weakness becomes amplified in a warming world by elucidating the past and future increases of peak wind speeds in the most intense TCs. A simple extrapolation of the Saffir–Simpson scale is used to define a hypothetical category 6, and we describe the frequency of TCs, both past and projected under global warming, that would fall under this category. We find that a number of recent storms have already achieved this hypothetical category 6 intensity and based on multiple independent lines of evidence examining the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, more such storms are projected as the climate continues to warm.

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“…Increasing the understanding of the environmental factors affecting TCs is one of the most effective ways to improve the ability to forecast TC intensity. According to previous studies, the following environmental factors are considered favorable for TC intensification: small vertical wind shear [9,10], high low-level vorticity [9,11], high upper-level divergence [12,13], high sea surface temperature [14,15], high water vapor content of the troposphere [16,17], and large amounts of convective available potential energy [18,19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Environmental Relative Vorticity and Seasonal Variation on Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Chen

Zhou

et al. 2022

Atmosphere

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An improved understanding of the environmental factors influencing tropical cyclones (TCs) is vital to enhance the accuracy of forecasting TC intensity. More than half of TCs that were substantially affected by environmental factors were predominantly affected by low-level environmental relative vorticity (hereafter, VOR TCs). In this study, the seasonal variation and related physical features of VOR TCs from 2003–2017 during TC seasons in summer and autumn over the western North Pacific were analyzed. Autumn VOR TCs exhibited the strongest intensity among all TCs over the western North Pacific. The enhanced environmental relative vorticity during the TC intensification period was larger and more favorably distributed for VOR TC development in autumn. The vorticity diagnostic analysis showed that the convergence was the positive source of environmental relative vorticity of VOR TCs, while the contribution of convergence was larger in autumn than in summer. The increased convergence was related to seasonal variation in larger-scale systems, especially the higher environmental pressure gradient, which reflected the larger subtropical high and the compressed East Asian summer monsoon trough in autumn. In addition, the East Asian summer monsoon trough was also somewhat stronger during the intensification period of VOR TCs, especially in autumn.

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The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature

Cited by 14 publications

References 59 publications

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

Effects of Environmental Relative Vorticity and Seasonal Variation on Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

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