Publisher's copyright statement:Additional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details.

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The oxygen isotope composition of speleothems is a widely used proxy for past climate change. Robust use of this proxy depends on understanding the relationship between precipitation and cave drip water δ 18 O. Here, we present the first global analysis, based on data from 163 drip sites, from 39 caves on five continents, showing that drip water δ 18 O is most similar to the amount-weighted precipitation δ 18 O where mean annual temperature (MAT) is < 10 °C. By contrast, for seasonal climates with MAT > 10 °C and < 16 °C, drip water δ 18 O records the recharge-weighted δ 18 O. This implies that the δ 18 O of speleothems (formed in near isotopic equilibrium) are most likely to directly reflect meteoric precipitation in cool climates only. In warmer and drier environments, speleothems will have a seasonal bias toward the precipitation δ 18 O of recharge periods and, in some cases, the extent of evaporative fractionation of stored karst water.

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Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

Citation for published item:fldiniD vis wF nd whermottD prnk nd fldiniD tmes F vF nd erisD lo nd guetoD wri¡ n nd pirhildD sn tF nd ro'mnnD hirk vF nd wtteyD hvid F nd w¤ ullerD olfgng nd xitD hn gonstntin nd ynt£ n¡ onD oerto nd qri¡ Ewon¡ oD gristin nd ihrdsD hvid eF @PHISA 9egionl tempertureD tmospheri irultionD nd seEie vriility within the ounger hrys ivent onstrined using speleothem from northern seriF9D irth nd plnetry siene lettersFD RIW F ppF IHIEIIHF Further information on publisher's website: httpXGGdxFdoiForgGIHFIHITGjFepslFPHISFHQFHIS Publisher's copyright statement: NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A denitive version was subsequently published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 419, 1 June 2015, 10.1016/j.epsl.2015 Additional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details.

No abstract