Segmentation and supercycles: A catalog of earthquake rupture patterns from the Sumatran Sunda Megathrust and other well-studied faults worldwide

Philibosian, B.; Meltzner, A. J.

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106390

Cited by 84 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 302 publications

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“…At the gross scale, the 1,500 year‐long MRM presents a complex pattern of superimposed cycles containing cascades, re‐rupture, and large multiasperity ruptures (Philibosian & Meltzner, 2020). At the subregional scale (e.g., Figure 2b), the repetition of periods of activity has similarities to historical earthquake patterns elsewhere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Maximum Rupture Model for the Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, Derived From Paleoseismic Earthquake Ages: Observations and Limitations

Scharer

Yule

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Paleoseismic rupture histories provide spatiotemporal models of earthquake moment release needed to test numerical models and lengthen the instrumental catalog. We develop a model of the fewest and thus largest magnitude earthquakes permitted by paleoseismic data for the last 1,500 years on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, USA. The largest geometric complexity appears to regulate the system: Only two ruptures break the San Gorgonio Pass region, followed by episodes of ruptures that could bridge the northern San Jacinto Fault and the San Andreas Fault. When tested against independent data on slip per event, the model produces comparable values indicating the end‐member model does not underpredict rupture rates. Rupture of >85% of the fault length in the historic period between 1800 and 1857 and the subsequent quiescence is similar to epochs of activity in the prehistoric model, suggesting that regional clustering of seismicity could be a trait of the system.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Maximum Rupture Model for the Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, Derived From Paleoseismic Earthquake Ages: Observations and Limitations

Scharer

Yule

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Below, we present examples of long paleoearthquake records to demonstrate the diversity of recurrence behavior observed across tectonic regimes. We point out qualitative differences between regions with strike-slip plate boundary faults, peripheral plate boundary regions, and intraplate faults, but we do not discuss other tectonic settings (e.g., subduction zones, reviewed by Philibosian & Meltzner, 2020) in the interest of space. This section is followed by a discussion of the implications of these results for PSHA and current time-dependent temporal occurrence models that are often used to capture these types of earthquake behavior.…”

Section: Understanding and Modeling The Temporal Distribution Of Faulmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges

et al. 2020

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The loss of life and economic consequences caused by several recent earthquakes demonstrate the importance of developing seismically safe building codes. The quantification of seismic hazard, which describes the likelihood of earthquake-induced ground shaking at a site for a specific time period, is a key component of a building code, as it helps ensure that structures are designed to withstand the ground shaking caused by a potential earthquake. Geologic or geomorphic data represent important inputs to the most common seismic hazard model (probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, or PSHAs), as they can characterize the magnitudes, locations, and types of earthquakes that occur over long intervals (thousands of years). However, several recent earthquakes and a growing body of work challenge many of our previous assumptions about the characteristics of active faults and their rupture behavior, and these complexities can be challenging to accurately represent in PSHA. Here, we discuss several of the outstanding challenges surrounding geologic and geomorphic data sets frequently used in PSHA. The topics we discuss include how to utilize paleoseismic records in fault slip rate estimates, understanding and modeling earthquake recurrence and fault complexity, the development and use of fault-scaling relationships, and characterizing enigmatic faults using topography. Making headway in these areas will likely require advancements in our understanding of the fundamental science behind processes such as fault triggering, complex rupture, earthquake clustering, and fault scaling. Progress in these topics will be important if we wish to accurately capture earthquake behavior in a variety of settings using PSHA in the future. Plain Language Summary Growing infrastructure and increasing population have caused significant loss of life due to recent large earthquakes, with the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan and 2005 M w 7.6 Kashmir earthquakes each causing greater than 50,000 deaths. These earthquakes highlight the need for the development of building codes designed to withstand the strong ground shaking caused by earthquakes, as reinforced infrastructure is one of the most important factors for preventing fatalities due to ground shaking from earthquakes. Identifying the seismic hazard of a region, or the likelihood of ground shaking at a site due to potential earthquakes over time, is a key ingredient for informing a defensible building code. Here, we focus on current and future advances in how data from the fields of geology and geomorphology contribute to the most widely used type of seismic hazard model. These geologic data represent vital components to seismic hazard models, as they can provide information about the location and types of earthquakes that can occur over long, thousands of years, time periods, that cannot be obtained using other methods. We discuss some of the most pressing scientific issues about these data that are important for the development of seismic hazard models and defensible building codes.

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“…Some long‐term geological records also suggest more complex patterns of earthquake recurrence. The term supercycle (Grant & Sieh, 1994; Sieh et al, 2008) has been applied to several types of earthquake behavior but, in general, refers to release of accumulated strain in multiple earthquakes relatively closely spaced in time, followed by long periods of quiescence (Philibosian & Meltzner, 2020). Salditch et al (2020) suggest that supercycles demonstrate long‐term memory in the faulting process and that successive large earthquakes are not independent of each other.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Periodicity and Clustering in the Long‐Term Earthquake Record

Griffin

Stirling

Wang

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Elastic rebound theory forms the basis of the standard earthquake cycle model and predicts large earthquakes to recur regularly through cycles of strain accumulation and release. Yet few individual earthquake records are sufficiently long to test the theory. Here we characterize the distribution of earthquake interevent times from a global compilation of 80 long-term records. We find that large earthquakes recur more regularly than a random Poisson process on individual fault segments. The majority of Earth's well-studied faults shows weakly periodic and uncorrelated large earthquake recurrence, consistent with the expectations of elastic rebound theory. However, many low activity-rate (annual occurrence rates < 2 × 10 −4) faults show random or clustered earthquake recurrence, which cannot be explained by elastic rebound theory. Plain Language Summary To help society prepare for earthquakes, we use the record of previous earthquakes to forecast the chance of future large earthquakes. A key question is whether large earthquakes on a particular fault recur regularly, randomly, or cluster together in time. Here we compile records from 80 different studies of prehistoric earthquakes. We show that large earthquakes on a particular fault recur more regularly than random, except in regions that experience few earthquakes. This means that for regions that experience many earthquakes, we can forecast future large earthquake occurrence with some degree of skill. In contrast, forecasting large earthquake occurrence in places that experience few earthquakes, and where we expect them least, remains exceptionally difficult.

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Segmentation and supercycles: A catalog of earthquake rupture patterns from the Sumatran Sunda Megathrust and other well-studied faults worldwide

Cited by 84 publications

References 302 publications

A Maximum Rupture Model for the Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, Derived From Paleoseismic Earthquake Ages: Observations and Limitations

A Maximum Rupture Model for the Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, Derived From Paleoseismic Earthquake Ages: Observations and Limitations

Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges

Periodicity and Clustering in the Long‐Term Earthquake Record

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