Records of relative sea-level change extracted from corals of the Mentawai islands, Sumatra, imply that this 700-kilometer-long section of the Sunda megathrust has generated broadly similar sequences of great earthquakes about every two centuries for at least the past 700 years. The moment magnitude 8.4 earthquake of September 2007 represents the first in a series of large partial failures of the Mentawai section that will probably be completed within the next several decades.

Coral records of relative sea level change provide a history of vertical interseismic and coseismic deformation along the coast of northern Simeulue Island, Sumatra, and reveal details about earthquakes in the 10th and 14th–15th centuries A.D. along the southern end of the December 2004 Mw 9.2 Sunda megathrust rupture. Over a 56 year period between A.D. 1390 and 1455, northern Simeulue experienced a cluster of megathrust ruptures, associated with total uplift that was considerably more than in 2004. Uplifted corals at two sites constrain the first event of the cluster to A.D. 1393 ± 3 and 1394 ± 2 (2σ). A smaller but well‐substantiated uplift occurred in northern Simeulue in 1430 ± 3. An inferred third uplift, in A.D. 1450 ± 3, killed all corals on the reef flats of northern Simeulue. The amount of uplift during this third event, though confirmed only to have exceeded 28 and 41 cm at two sites, probably surpassed the 100 and 44 cm that occurred, respectively, at those sites in 2004, and it was likely more than in 2004 over all of northern Simeulue. The evidence for past earthquake clustering combined with the inference of considerably greater uplift in A.D. 1390–1455 than in 2004 suggests that strain may still be stored along the southernmost part of the 2004 rupture. Interseismic subsidence rates recorded by northern Simeulue coral microatolls have varied by up to a factor of 4 at some sites from one earthquake cycle to another.

No abstract

No abstract

To gain insight into the longevity of subduction zone segmentation, we use coral microatolls to examine an 1100‐year record of large earthquakes across the boundary of the great 2004 and 2005 Sunda megathrust ruptures. Simeulue, a 100‐km‐long island off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, straddles this boundary: northern Simeulue was uplifted in the 2004 earthquake, whereas southern Simeulue rose in 2005. Northern Simeulue corals reveal that predecessors of the 2004 earthquake occurred in the 10th century AD, in AD 1394 ± 2, and in AD 1450 ± 3. Corals from southern Simeulue indicate that none of the major uplifts inferred on northern Simeulue in the past 1100 years extended to southern Simeulue. The two largest uplifts recognized at a south‐central Simeulue site—around AD 1422 and in 2005—involved little or no uplift of northern Simeulue. The distribution of uplift and strong shaking during a historical earthquake in 1861 suggests the 1861 rupture area was also restricted to south of central Simeulue, as in 2005. The strikingly different histories of the two adjacent patches demonstrate that this boundary has persisted as an impediment to rupture through at least seven earthquakes in the past 1100 years. This implies that the rupture lengths, and hence sizes, of at least some future great earthquakes and tsunamis can be forecast. These microatolls also provide insight into megathrust behavior between earthquakes, revealing sudden and substantial changes in interseismic strain accumulation rates.

We refer to periods of subduction strain accumulation beneath the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra, as "supercycles," because each culminates in a series of partial ruptures of the megathrust in its final decades. The finale of the previous supercycle comprised two giant earthquakes in 1797 and 1833 and whatever happened in between. This behavior between two great ruptures has implications for how the megathrust will behave between its more recent partial failure, during the M w 8.4 earthquake of 2007, and subsequent large ruptures. We synthesize previously published coral microatoll records and a large new coral data set to constrain not only these two giant ruptures but also the intervening interseismic megathrust behavior. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755-1833 and 1950-2000, as well as models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. The large magnitudes we derive (M w 8.6-8.8 for 1797 and M w 8.8-8.9 for 1833) confirm that the 2007 earthquakes released only a fraction of the moment released during the previous rupture sequence. Whereas megathrust behavior leading up to the 1797 and 2007 earthquakes was similar and comparatively simple, behavior between 1797 and 1833 was markedly different and more complex: several patches of the megathrust became weakly coupled following the 1797 earthquake. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they may significantly change the state of coupling on the megathrust for decades to follow, influencing the progression of subsequent ruptures.

No abstract

Surface rupture in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence occurred along two orthogonal cross faults and includes dominantly left-lateral and northeast-striking rupture in the Mw 6.4 foreshock and dominantly right-lateral and northwest-striking rupture in the Mw 7.1 mainshock. We present >650 field-based, surface-displacement observations for these ruptures and synthesize our results into cumulative along-strike displacement distributions. Using these data, we calculate displacement gradients and compare our results with historical strike-slip ruptures in the eastern California shear zone. For the Mw 6.4 rupture, we report 96 displacements measured along 18 km of northeast-striking rupture. Cumulative displacement curves for the rupture yield a mean left-lateral displacement of 0.3–0.5 m and maximum of 0.7–1.6 m. Net mean vertical displacement based on the difference of down-to-the-west (DTW) and down-to-the-east (DTE) displacement curves is close to zero (0.02 m DTW). The Mw 6.4 displacement distribution shows that the majority of displacement occurred southwest of the intersection with the Mw 7.1 rupture. The Mw 7.1 rupture is northwest-striking and 50 km long based on 576 field measurements. Displacement curves indicate a mean right-lateral displacement of 1.2–1.7 m and a maximum of 4.3–7.0 m. Net vertical displacement in the rupture averages 0.3 m DTW. The Mw 7.1 displacement distributions demonstrate that maximum displacement occurred along a 12-km-long portion of the fault near the Mw 7.1 epicenter, releasing 66% of the geologically based seismic moment along 24% of the total rupture length. Using our displacement distributions, we calculate kilometer-scale displacement gradients for the Mw 7.1 rupture. The steepest gradients (∼1–3  m/km) flank the 12-km-long region of maximum displacement. In contrast, gradients for the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes are <0.6  m/km. Our displacement distributions are important for understanding the influence of cross-fault rupture on Mw 6.4 and 7.1 rupture length and displacement and will facilitate comparisons with distributions generated remotely and at broader scales.