Sea level rise, spatially uneven and temporally unsteady: Why the U.S. East Coast, the global tide gauge record, and the global altimeter data show different trends

Ezer, Tal

doi:10.1002/2013gl057952

Cited by 126 publications

(175 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…Modelling and long-term TG data indicate that the behaviour of sea level is similar and highly correlated north or south of Cape Hatteras 4,5,7,18,20 . By taking the long-term rate and especially the 2009 SLR rate into account ( Supplementary Fig.…”

Section: Tg Records Sea Level Along the East Coast Of The United Stamentioning

confidence: 94%

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An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010

et al. 2015

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The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant yearto-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. The analysis of long-term tide gauge records identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009-10. Within this 2-year period, the coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by 128 mm. This magnitude of interannual SLR is unprecedented (a 1-in-850 year event) during the entire history of the tide gauge records. Here we show that this extreme SLR event is a combined effect of two factors: an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during 2009-10, and a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation index. The extreme nature of the 2009-10 SLR event suggests that such a significant downturn of the Atlantic overturning circulation is very unusual. During the twenty-first century, climate models project an increase in magnitude and frequency of extreme interannual SLR events along this densely populated coast.

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Section: Tg Records Sea Level Along the East Coast Of The United Stamentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Canada exhibits interannual fluctuations superimposed on multidecadal variations and a long-term upward trend 5,7,[18][19][20] . Modelling and long-term TG data indicate that the behaviour of sea level is similar and highly correlated north or south of Cape Hatteras 4,5,7,18,20 .…”

Section: Tg Records Sea Level Along the East Coast Of The United Stamentioning

confidence: 99%

An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010

et al. 2015

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“…Tide gauge observations detected robust accelerations of SLR along the highly populated US northeast coast since 1950 and especially since 1970 (Sallenger et al 2012;Boon 2012;Ezer and Corlett 2012). Existing studies suggest that the *60-year cycle in sea level, which is present in most tide gauge stations along the US northeast coast (Kenigson and Han 2014) with rapid SLR since 1970 coinciding with the positive transition of the *60-year cycle of SST index, has a significant contribution to the observed SLR acceleration (Kopp 2013;Ezer 2013;Scafetta 2014;Kenigson and Han 2014). Using both Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and ensemble EMD methods, Kenigson and Han (2014) constructed synthetic tide gauge data by extracting the leading oscillations at interannualto-multidecadal timescales from tide gauge data, and extended the data back to 1813 by superimposing the oscillations on prescribed trends with known acceleration rates.…”

Section: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (Amo)-related Sea Level Pamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Surv Geophys (2017) 38:217-250 231 Recently, accelerated SLR along the US northeast coast, particularly in the ''hotspot'' from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod since the 1950s, has been detected using tide gauge observations (Sallenger et al 2012). The weakened transport of the Gulf Stream, the upper branch of the AMOC, and the northward shift of the Gulf Stream during recent decades (Ezer 2013;Ezer et al 2013;Yin and Goddard 2013) have been suggested to be the cause. The Gulf Stream sustains a sharp sea level gradient associated with geostrophic balance, suppressing sea level along the Atlantic coast by 1-1.5 m relative to the open ocean east of the Stream.…”

Section: Subtropical Dipole and Sea Level Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3a). Ezer (2013) and Ezer et al (2013) suggested that the weakening Gulf Stream and AMOC, which affect the hotspot SLR acceleration during recent decades, are linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) but are also affected by the SLP and winds associated with the NAO. The effects of NAO-related wind stress curl and surface heat flux in the basin interior on interannual and decadal variability of the Gulf Stream have also been suggested by other studies (e.g., Curry and McCartney 2001;Di Nezio et al 2009;Chaudhuri et al 2011).…”

Section: Nao-related Sea Level Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

et al. 2016

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Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

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On the long‐term stability of Gulf Stream transport based on 20 years of direct measurements

Rossby

Flagg

Donohue

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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In contrast to recent claims of a Gulf Stream slowdown, two decades of directly measured velocity across the current show no evidence of a decrease. Using a well-constrained definition of Gulf Stream width, the linear least square fit yields a mean surface layer transport of 1.35 × 10 5 m 2 s À1 with a 0.13%negative trend per year. Assuming geostrophy, this corresponds to a mean cross-stream sea level difference of 1.17 m, with sea level decreasing 0.03 m over the 20 year period. This is not significant at the 95% confidence level, and it is a factor of 2-4 less than that alleged from accelerated sea level rise along the U.S. Coast north of Cape Hatteras. Part of the disparity can be traced to the spatial complexity of altimetric sea level trends over the same period.

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Sea level rise, spatially uneven and temporally unsteady: Why the U.S. East Coast, the global tide gauge record, and the global altimeter data show different trends

Abstract: Key Points The spatial pattern of sea level rise acceleration is explained Multidecadal climate variations unevenly affect sea level rise Discrepancies in global sea level rise from different observations are explained

Cited by 126 publications

References 27 publications

An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010

An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

On the long‐term stability of Gulf Stream transport based on 20 years of direct measurements

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