Scientists’ views about lay perceptions of volcanic hazard and risk

General rightsThis document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. AbstractWe present data from an international survey of scientists working at volcanic observatories concerning eruption likelihoods. The scientists were asked a range of questions using different types of phrasing. The data suggest that the phrasing of questions affects the ways in which probabilities are estimated. In total, 71% of respondents (N=70) exhibited some form of inconsistency in their answers between and/or within different question formats. The data also allow for an analysis of the use of scaling in probabilistic assessment, and the use of quantitative versus verbal risk measurements. However, some respondents were uncomfortable with providing any numerical probability estimate, perhaps suggesting that they considered the uncertainty too high for meaningful judgements to be made.

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“…(extremely unconfident (1) to extremely confident (7)). Additional responses from the survey are published elsewhere (Donovan et al, 2014).…”

Section: Survey Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

Donovan

Eiser

Sparks

2015

Journal of Risk Research

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“…Natural and volcanic hazards represent uncertain and unpredictable threats, especially in developing countries, where local communities tend to be unprepared (Barclay et al, ; Donovan, Eiser, & Sparks, ). Such events are prone to generate difficult decisions for both decision managers and populations at risk (e.g., complex situations due to uncertain forecasts, moral dilemmas), and it appears that risk perception does not necessarily determine the choice made (Haynes, Barclay, & Pidgeon, ; Wachinger, Renn, Begg, & Kuhlicke, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing uncertainty to promote appropriate decisions when facing hazardous phenomena at an active volcano

Merlhiot

Mermillod

Pennec

et al. 2018

J Applied Social Pyschol

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This study investigated a new direction for improving the decision making of populations at risk in the context of uncertain environmental events, such as volcanic hazards. According to the risk as feelings theory and dual process models, situations with certain outcomes do not necessarily require the use of affect heuristics (e.g., experienced feelings, anticipated emotions) as valid information in the decision‐making process. In the case of difficult decisions with moral dilemmas, certainty could even improve decisions. Thus, using an ecological design with various scenarios depicting upcoming volcanic hazards, we examined whether reducing the uncertainty of lethal threat by conveying certainty in an information campaign could influence decision making and promote a better quality of choice (correct application of the recommendations from the competent authorities). We focused specifically on two populations composed of local people living in the vicinity of an active volcano (Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador) and local scientists. We also examined whether a difficult decision involving a moral dilemma (e.g., leaving people behind so as not to jeopardize one's own life) potentiated this effect, compared to a less difficult situation without a dilemma. We demonstrated that, for local people facing a moral dilemma (difficult decision), the reduction of uncertainty of lethal threat involved a better application of the actual recommendations. These outcomes provided perspectives on improving the applications of the recommendations among local populations at risk in the context of a real risk exposure.

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“…1). Donovan et al (2014) suggest that Mount Cameroon is considered as a low risk potential, due to the predominantly effusive nature of its eruptions, but with an extremely high likelihood of an eruption in the next 30 years. A number of volcanic hazard and risk assessments have been performed (Bonne et al 2008;Thierry et al 2008;Favalli et al 2011;Gehl et al 2013) but these have largely been limited to scientific publications.…”

Section: Project Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Management of Geological Hazards and Risks in the Mt Cameroon Area Using Focus Group Discussions

Marmol

Fontijn

Atanga

et al. 2017

Advances in Volcanology

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The scientific evaluation of hazards and risks remains a primary concern in poorly known volcanic regions. The use of such information to develop an effective risk management structure and risk reduction actions however also poses important challenges. We here present the results of a series of focus group discussions (FGDs) organised with city councillors from three municipalities around Mt Cameroon volcano, Cameroon. The Mt Cameroon area is a volcanically and tectonically active region regularly affected in the historical past by lava flows, landslides and earthquake swarms, and has a potential for crater lake outgassing. The lower flanks of the volcano are densely populated and the site of intense economic development. The FGDs were aimed at the elicitation of (1) the knowledge and perception of geological hazards, (2) the state of preparedness and the implementation of mitigation and prevention actions by the municipalities, (3) the evaluation of the effectiveness of the structure of communication channels established to respond to emergency situations, and (4) the recovery from an emergency. In all three municipalities stakeholders had good knowledge of the risks, except for processes never experienced in the region. They generally grasped the causes of landslides or floods but were less familiar with volcano-tectonic processes. Stakeholders identified the lack of strategic planning to monitor hazards and mitigate their impacts as a major weakness, requesting additional education and scientific support. Response to natural hazards is mostly based on informal communication channels and is supported by a high level of trust between local scientists, decision makers and the population. Actions are taken to raise awareness and implement basic mitigation and prevention actions, based on the willingness of local political leaders. The strong centralisation of the risk management process at the national level and the lack of political and financial means at the local level are major limitations in the implementation of an effective risk management strategy adapted to local risk conditions. Our case study highlights the need for earth and social scientists to actively work together with national and local authorities to translate the findings of scientific hazard and risk assessment into improved risk management practices.

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Scientists’ views about lay perceptions of volcanic hazard and risk

Cited by 30 publications

References 59 publications

Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

Reducing uncertainty to promote appropriate decisions when facing hazardous phenomena at an active volcano

Investigating the Management of Geological Hazards and Risks in the Mt Cameroon Area Using Focus Group Discussions

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