Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

Donovan, Amy; Eiser, J. Richard; Sparks, R. S. J.

doi:10.1080/13669877.2015.1115425

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…The capacity of DHM to generate locationspecific reliable forecast information and warnings in order to more effectively operationalise SOPs is still low. The capacity of district and local stakeholders to understand forecast information and probabilities also needs to be developed through various training and capacity building activitiestheir anxieties about understanding this information is consistent with other studies on probabilistic reasoning (Doyle et al, 2014). However, people are open to receiving this information if they can understand it (Fakhruddin et al, 2015).…”

Section: Response Capabilitymentioning

confidence: 58%

“…"twice as likely") over relative frequency and odds (Morss et al, 2008;). An issue with nonnumerical text, however, is that interpretations of the wording can vary considerably (Doyle et al, 2014).…”

Section: Communicating Probability and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More complex EWSs, supported by multiple complex forecasts including probabilistic forecasts and forecasts at different spatial and temporal scales, can provide additional lead time, allowing community members, responders, and high-level decision-makers additional time to prepare in advance of a flood event. However, these advance warnings come with the additional complexity of conveying technical and uncertain probabilistic information to an audience with varying levels of education who are often unaccustomed to information in this form Donovan et al, 2014Donovan et al, , 2015Doyle et al, 2014;Gigerenzer et al, 2005Gigerenzer et al, , 2007.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Communicating complex forecasts: an analysis of the approach in Nepal's flood early warning system

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Early warning systems have the potential to save lives and improve resilience. However, barriers and challenges remain in disseminating and communicating early warning information to institutional decision-makers, community members and individuals at risk, including unequal access, insufficient understanding, and inability to act on warning information. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current flood early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination, and decision-making for early action. Data were collected from key informant interviews, community-level questionnaires, and a national stakeholder workshop and qualitatively analysed. The availability and utilisation of simple and complex flood forecasts in Nepal, and their integration into dissemination, and decision support tools were reviewed, considering their impact on improving early action to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities to flooding. Results suggest that as Nepal continues to advance in hydro-meteorological forecasting capabilities, efforts are simultaneously needed to ensure these forecasts are more effectively communicated and disseminated.

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Section: Response Capabilitymentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Communicating Probability and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Communicating complex forecasts: an analysis of the approach in Nepal's flood early warning system

et al. 2020

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“…Both the pilot and the workshop were run using the same structure, starting with a briefing on Cooke's Classical method, a refresher on medians and quantiles, and then a practice exercise on Raoul Island. The practice exercise prompted discussion on how the questionnaire was to be answered, and what the answers meant, in order to minimize potential bias due to misunderstanding of question phrasing (Donovan et al 2015). The main discussion points raised included:…”

Section: Workhopsmentioning

confidence: 99%

National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation

et al. 2018

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Volcanic hazard estimation is becoming increasingly quantitative, creating the potential for land-use decisions and engineering design to use volcanic information in an analogous manner to seismic codes. The initial requirement is to characterize the possible hazard sources, quantifying the likely timing, magnitude and location of the next eruption in each case. This is complicated by the extremely different driving processes at individual volcanoes, and incomplete and uneven records of past activity at various volcanoes. To address these issues, we carried out an expert elicitation approach to estimate future eruption potential for 12 volcanoes of interest in New Zealand. A total of 28 New Zealand experts provided estimates that were combined using Cooke's classical method to arrive at a hazard estimate. In 11 of the 12 cases, the elicited eruption duration increased with VEI, and was correlated with expected repose, differing little between volcanoes. Most of the andesitic volcanoes had very similar elicited distributions for the VEI of a future eruption, except that Taranaki was expected to produce a larger eruption, due to the current long repose. Elicited future vent locations for Tongariro and Okataina reflect strongly the most recent eruptions. In the poorly studied Bay of Islands volcanic field, the estimated vent location distribution was centred on the centroid of the previous vent locations, while in the Auckland field, it was focused on regions within the field without past eruptions. The elicited median dates for the next eruptions ranged from AD2022 (Whakaari/White Island) to AD4390 (Tuhua/Mayor Island).

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“…More complex EWS, supported by multiple forecasts including probabilistic forecasts, can provide additional lead time, allowing community members, responders, and high level decision-makers additional time to prepare in 40 advance of a flood event. However, these advance warnings come with the additional complexity of conveying technical and uncertain probabilistic information to an audience with varying levels of education who are often unaccustomed to information in this form Donovan et al, 2014;Donovan et al, 2015;Doyle et al, 2014;Gigerenzer et al, 2005;Gigerenzer, 2007).…”

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confidence: 99%

Communicating Complex Forecasts for Enhanced Early Warning in Nepal

Budimir

Donovan

Brown

et al. 2019

Preprint

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Early warning systems have the potential to save lives and improve resilience. Simple early warning systems rely on real-time data and deterministic models to generate evacuation warnings; these simple deterministic models enable life-saving action, but provide limited lead time for resilience-building early action. More complex early warning systems supported by forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts, can provide additional lead time for preparation. However, barriers and challenges remain in disseminating and communicating these more complex warnings to community members and individuals at risk. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination and decision making for early action. The research reviewed the availability and utilisation of complex forecasts in Nepal, their integration into dissemination (Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) bulletins and SMS warnings), and decision support tools (Common Alerting Protocols and Standard Operating Procedures), considering their impact on improving early action to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities to flooding.</p>

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Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

Cited by 13 publications

References 76 publications

Communicating complex forecasts: an analysis of the approach in Nepal's flood early warning system

Communicating complex forecasts: an analysis of the approach in Nepal's flood early warning system

National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation

Communicating Complex Forecasts for Enhanced Early Warning in Nepal

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