Scientific challenges in the Arctic: Open water

Cressey, Daniel

doi:10.1038/478174a

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 3 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…The increase of open-water area allows new marine traffic routes in the Arctic region (Cressey 2011;Lasserre and Pelletier 2011;Stephenson et al 2011). According to the 2013 report by the U.S. Coast Guard, ;1 million tons of freight ships traveled through the Bering Strait in 2012, which more than double the amount of ship traffic in 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Fog Detection Using Infrared Spectral Measurements

Chen

et al. 2019

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology

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The rapid increase in open-water surface area in the Arctic, resulting from sea ice melting during the summer likely as a result of global warming, may lead to an increase in fog [defined as a cloud with a base height below 1000 ft (~304 m)], which may imperil ships and small aircraft transportation in the region. There is a need for monitoring fog formation over the Arctic. Given that ground-based observations of fog over Arctic open water are very sparse, satellite observations may become the most effective way for Arctic fog monitoring. We developed a fog detection algorithm using the temperature difference between the cloud top and the surface, called ∂ T in this work. A fog event is said to be detected if ∂ T is greater than a threshold, which is typically between −6 and −12 K, depending on the time of the day (day or night) and the surface types (open water or sea ice). We applied this method to the coastal regions of Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea near Barrow, Alaska (now known as Utqiaġvik), during the months of March–October. Training with satellite observations between 2007 and 2014 over this region, the ∂ T method can detect Arctic fog with an optimal probability of detection (POD) between 74% and 90% and false alarm rate (FAR) between 5% and 17%. These statistics are validated with data between 2015 and 2016 and are shown to be robust from one subperiod to another.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Fog Detection Using Infrared Spectral Measurements

Chen

et al. 2019

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology

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“…Climate model projections indicate that this overall trend will continue, leading to a seasonally ice-free (defined as <1 M km 2 in September) Arctic Ocean later this century (2)(3)(4)(5). These projections have, in turn, fueled abundant discussion about possible new geographically shorter international shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans by the Northern Sea Route or Northwest Passage (6)(7)(8)(9)(10). However, such suppositions remain highly speculative, because few studies have attempted to merge climate model output with numerical transportation analysis; thus, a quantitative assessment of how anticipated climate changes will calculably alter trans-Arctic navigation is lacking.…”

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confidence: 99%

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

Smith

Stephenson

2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

532

300

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Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.climate change | human-environment | marine transportation modeling | Arctic maritime development | global change

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“…In the Arctic, the loss of the remaining ice shelves appears to be part of the long-term 12% per decade decline in sea ice extent, which is having wide regional impacts (18). The loss of unusual ice shelf microbial ecosystems has also been reported, including an extraordinary stratified microbial ecosystem in the Disraeli Fjord (19).…”

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confidence: 96%