New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

Abstract

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.climate change | human-environment | marine transportation modeling | Arctic maritime development | global change

Governance of Expedition Cruise Ship Tourism in the Arctic: A Comparison of the Canadian and Russian Arctic

“…Arctic marine shipping assessment matrix. Source: after AMSA (2009); also see Hodgson (2010) and Smith and Stephenson (2013). Staple, 1995), illustrating that the Canadian Arctic is a late-comer to cruise tourism partly because of the prevalence of ice-infested waterways up until relatively recent times.…”

“…1) to situate our comparative study. The matrix illustrates a series of potential future shipping scenarios that were established though the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment initiative (AMSA, 2009; also see Hodgson, 2010;Smith & Stephenson, 2013). The scenarios focus on two main uncertainty factors thought to play major roles in the future of shipping development: governance (less stable vs. more stable) and resources and trade (more demand vs. less demand).…”

Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

“…Consequently, the recent changes in the length of the open water season at Utqiaġvik (Figs. 6, 7, and 9) have led to a significant increase for maritime traffic destined for Utqiaġvik or locations further east (Smith and Stephenson, 2013). Longer navigation seasons along other Arctic coasts are leading to an increased use of coastal shipping routes and development of offshore continental shelves (Instanes et al, 2005).…”

Cruise ship pathologies in remote regions

“…This may raise new sanitary/health issues because most of these remote regions offer difficult access and complicated sanitary evacuation process. A striking example is the polar circle that became over the past decade a prized destination for several touristic cruises [2,3]; this includes the southern and northern polar circles as well as the Northwest Passage that global warming has opened to navigational [4][5][6][7]. In addition, such cruise ships may encounter rough sea and climatic conditions far from the coastline, especially during transoceanic sailings jeopardising the immediate assistance of their passengers.…”