Scenario Planning: Toward a More Complete Model for Practice

Keough, Shawn M.; Shanahan, Kevin J.

doi:10.1177/1523422307313311

Cited by 55 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Shared mental models of a situation or perceived risk can be improved through training, effective team-based simulations, as well as shared scenario-based planning (Cannon-Bowers and Bell 1997;Crego and Spinks 1997;Paton, Smith, and Violanti Keough and Shanahan 2008;Moats, Chermack, and Dooley 2008). By building a shared mental model of the situation and issue, a more mutual understanding of the role of uncertainty can be established, as well as shared recognition of the different ways this uncertainty can be mitigated, managed or embraced.…”

Section: Embodied Uncertainty and The Co-production Of Knowledgementioning

confidence: 99%

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

Sword-Daniels

Eriksen

Doyle

et al. 2016

Journal of Risk Research

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Section: Embodied Uncertainty and The Co-production Of Knowledgementioning

confidence: 99%

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

Sword-Daniels

Eriksen

Doyle

et al. 2016

Journal of Risk Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…The VOP 2020 chose to use scenarioplanning to foster this process. Scenario-planning, [8][9][10][11][12][13] originally designed by the Royal Dutch-Shell company, is increasingly used by businesses, the military, and policy-makers to identify and plan for a range of potential, plausible futures. Scenario-planning is particularly effective when the goal is not to seek a single "answer" but to envi- (Table 3) to identify possible future realities, those using this process have the opportunity to be more prepared to "make strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures."…”

Section: Scope and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…8,10 The 3 scenarios for each megatrend are outlined in Table 5. We present below a brief summary of each of the 8 megatrends, describe the contextual background related to the megatrend, and then highlight important themes within each scenario.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Pediatrics in the Year 2020 and Beyond: Preparing for Plausible Futures

et al. 2010

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Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 “megatrends” that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of “wild-card” scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

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“…The process forces managers to think about the unthinkable and to even plan for it" (Bloom and Menefee 2014). Through this process, the goal is to outline possible futures that are "credible and yet uncertain" (Keough and Shanahan 2008). Various alternative steps to the scenario planning process are outlined in Table 3.…”

Section: Scenario Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…as watchers, partial participants, or full exercise participants). For example, 34 Pacific countries directly participated in Table 3 The generic scenario planning model of Keough and Shanahan (2008), and an example of a scenario building model for step 3 given by Schwartz' 8-step approach (Schwartz 1996 …”

Section: Exploring Exercises In Detailmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing scientific response in a crisis: evidence-based approaches from emergency management in New Zealand

2015

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Contemporary approaches to multi-organisational response planning for the management of complex volcanic crises assume that identifying the types of expertise needed provides the foundation for effective response. We discuss why this is only one aspect, and present the social, psychological and organizational issues that need to be accommodated to realize the full benefits of multi-agency collaboration. We discuss the need to consider how organizational culture, inter-agency trust, mental models, information management and communication and decision making competencies and processes, need to be understood and accommodated in crisis management planning and delivery. This paper discusses how these issues can be reconciled within superordinate (overarching) management structures designed to accommodate multi-agency response that incorporates decision-making inputs from both the response management team and the science advisors. We review the science advisory processes within New Zealand (NZ), and discuss lessons learnt from research into the inter-organisational response to historical eruptions and exercises in NZ. We argue that team development training is essential and review the different types of training and exercising techniques (including cross training, positional rotation, scenario planning, collaborative exercises, and simulations) which can be used to develop a coordinated capability in multiagency teams. We argue that to truly enhance the science response, science agencies must learn from the emergency management sector and embark on exercise and simulation programs within their own organisations, rather than solely participating as external players in emergency management exercises. We thus propose a science-led tiered exercise program, with example exercise scenarios, which can be used to enhance both the internal science response and the interagency response to a national or international event, and provide direction for the effective writing and conduct of these exercises.

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Scenario Planning: Toward a More Complete Model for Practice

Cited by 55 publications

References 36 publications

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

Pediatrics in the Year 2020 and Beyond: Preparing for Plausible Futures

Enhancing scientific response in a crisis: evidence-based approaches from emergency management in New Zealand

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