Enhancing scientific response in a crisis: evidence-based approaches from emergency management in New Zealand

When a volcano emerges from dormancy into a phase of unrest, the civil protection authorities charged with managing societal risks have the unenviable responsibility of making difficult decisions balancing numerous competing societal, political and economic considerations. A volcano that is threatening to erupt requires sound risk assessments incorporating trusted hazard assessments that are timely, relevant and comprehensible. Foreseeable challenges arise when the inevitable uncertainties of hazard assessment and communication meet societal and political demands for certitude. In some regions that host volcanic hazards, it would be both realistic and prudent to adopt three working assumptions. The complex legal and administrative infrastructures of risk governance will be largely untested and possibly inadequate. Many volcano observatory scientists, and probably even more risk managers and at-risk individuals/communities, will have inadequate recent experience of the challenges of hazard communication during a period of unrest. And lastly, the scientists may also have inadequate practical experience of the needs and management capacities of the risk-mitigation decision makers with whom they must communicate. "Practice doesn't make perfect. Practice reduces the imperfection." (Beta 2011). If this statement is correct, volcanic unrest simulation exercises (VUSE) have a vital role to play within the complex processes of volcanic risk governance. Consistent with the broad approach of the Sendai Framework for Risk Reduction 2015-30, this chapter argues that practical knowledge of VUSE can and should be analysed and recorded so that key lessons can be shared for the widest possible benefit. This chapter investigates five recent simulation exercises and presents six complementary checklists based upon data, insights and practice pointers derived from those exercises. The use of checklists, supported by guidance notes, is commended as a pragmatic way to create, test and develop acceptable standards of governance practice. It is argued here that well planned and executed simulation exercises are capable of informing and motivating a wide range of risk governance stakeholders. They can identify process and individual shortcomings that can be mitigated. Simulation exercises can and should play a vital role in reducing volcanic risks.

Section: Academic Support For Training and Simulation Exercisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Managerial Dimensionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Guidance Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Academic Support For Training and Simulation Exercisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Volcanic Unrest Simulation Exercises: Checklists and Guidance Notes

Bretton

Ciolli

Christiani

et al. 2018

“…There are additional sociological and qualitative aspects to consider when communicating probabilities beyond the scope of this chapter, but address issues around risk perception, trust, decision-making, and managing disasters e.g. Kilburn 1978;Fiske 1984;Tazieff 1977;Paton et al 1999;Chester et al 2002;Sparks 2003;Haynes et al 2007Haynes et al , 2008Baxter et al 2008;Solana et al 2008;Fearnley 2013;Doyle et al 2015. What Should Be Communicated?…”

Section: Using Probabilities To Communicate Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Statistics to Quantify and Communicate Uncertainty During Volcanic Crises

Sobradelo

Martı́²

2017

For decades, and especially in recent years, there has been an increasing amount of research using statistical modelling to produce volcanic forecasts, so that people could make better decisions. This research aims to add confidence by arming users with quantitative summaries of the chaos and uncertainty of extreme situations, in the form of probabilities-that is to say the measure of the likeliness that an event will occur.

Decision-Making: Preventing Miscommunication and Creating Shared Meaning Between Stakeholders

Doyle

Paton

2017

Self Cite

The effective management and response to either volcanic eruptions or (often prolonged) periods of heightened unrest, is fundamentally dependent upon effective relationships and communication between science advisors, emergency managers and key decision makers. To optimise the effectiveness of the scientific contribution to effective prediction and management decision making, it is important for science advisors or scientific advisory bodies to be cognisant of the many different perspectives, needs and goals of the diverse organisations involved in the response. Challenges arise for scientists as they may need to be embedded members of the wider response multi-agency team, rather than independent contributors of essential information. Thus they must add to their competencies an understanding of the different roles, responsibilities, and needs of each member organisation, such that they can start to provide information implicitly rather than in response to explicit requests. To build this shared understanding, the team situational awareness (understanding of the situation in time and space), and the wider team mental model (a representation of the team functions and responsibilities), requires participating in a response environment together. Facilitating the availability of this capability has training and organizational development implications for scientific agencies and introduces a need for developing new inter-agency relationships and liaison mechanisms well before a volcanic crisis occurs. In this chapter, we review individual and team decision making, and the role of situational awareness and mental models in creating "shared meaning" between agencies. The aim is to improve communication and information sharing, as well as furthering the understanding of the impact that uncertainty has upon communication and ways to manage this. We then review personal and organisational factors that can impact response and conclude with a brief review of methods available to improve future response capability, and the importance of protocols and guidelines to assist this in a national or international context.