Russian-Japanese relations after Abe: A new stress test?

Abstract

The article addresses qualitative changes in Russian-Japanese relations that occurred after the resignation of Shinzō Abe from the position of Prime Minister in 2020 due to the transformation of the international environment and domestic political developments in both countries. Among the international factors contributing to the deterioration of bilateral relations, the author particularly mentions confrontation between the Kremlin and the U.S after the change of administration in Washington in 2021, as well as a new aggravation of the situation around Ukraine in 2022. Continuing formation of a new system of geopolitical coordinates in Asia, in which only China can be considered by Russia an actual ally, while Japan, along with many of Russia’s Asian partners linked to the U.S., found themselves in the opposing camp, also played a role.The author focuses on the change in the Russian position on the issue of the peace treaty with Japan. The course was taken to demonstrate to Japan the futility of its stance on the issue of border demarcation with Russia. There has also been a transformation of the place and role of Japan in the internal ideological and propaganda discourse of Russia, where the focus on the «crimes of Japanese militarism» in East Asian countries is becoming increasingly evident. At the same time, the author considers Moscow’s critical attitude towards Japan not the result of a conscious ideological campaign directed specifically against Japan, but rather a reflection of the general atmosphere in the socio-political life of Russia.The author believes that the acquisition of a new «unfriendly» state in the face of Japan on the Far Eastern borders will become a military and political risk factor for Russia and will inevitably damage its security. Meanwhile, Russia should rethink its position given that, geostrategically, it is important for it to have strong partnership relations with Japan.