Russia in 2015: a Supply-Side Recession

Zamulin, Oleg

doi:10.31737/2221-2264-2016-29-1-10

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…While in the 2000s, Russia was only outpaced by China and India in terms of growth rate, over the past decade it has fallen to seventh place, lagging behind such countries as Indonesia, Turkey, and others (Akindinova et al, 2020). The reasons for this slowdown are not solely due to the exhaustion of the impact of "one-time" factors that Russia received during the post-Soviet transformation of its economy, such as the growth of retail trade and the banking sector in the 2000s (Akindinova et al, 2020), or the reduction of the impact of temporary or cyclical factors, such as the increase in oil prices and record capital inflows into emerging market countries (Drobushevsky et al, 2018), but also due to the slowdown in the impact of structural factors (Zamulin, 2016). Zamulin and Sonin (2019) argue that Russia has the capacity to achieve annual growth rates of 5-6 % and narrow the gap with developed countries.…”

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confidence: 99%

Intensive and Extensive Margins of Export: Determinants of Economic Growth in Russian Regions under Sanctions

Fedyunina,

Simachev,

Drapkin

2023

EoR

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The impact of foreign trade on the Russian economy’s growth remains debatable. In 2014, the economy faced initial sanctions, leading to export restructuring and affecting growth. In 2022, a second unprecedented wave of sanctions necessitated export restructuring and intensified the challenge of sourcing economic growth. This study evaluates the impact of intensive and extensive export margins on Russian regions’ growth from 2015 to 2021 and discusses post-2022 implications. It is hypothesised that new export goods and markets are vital for economic growth in Russian regions. The study shows that both intensive and extensive margins are positively related to the level of development in Russian regions, and developed regions with diversified economic structures had higher values of export margins. The methodology uses panel regression with random and fixed effects. The empirical results show Russian regions’ market share in the products they export and in the countries where they export (i. e. intensive product and geographic margin) is important for the economic growth of Russian regions, while the results for extensive margin are ambiguous. The obtained findings have implications for industrial policy, which should prioritise the development of measures aimed at supporting existing exporting companies in expanding their presence in familiar markets. The task of export diversification should primarily be addressed through working with existing exporters and export products, while the export of innovative products should be viewed as a gradual evolutionary process within the framework of long-term planning.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensive and Extensive Margins of Export: Determinants of Economic Growth in Russian Regions under Sanctions

Fedyunina,

Simachev,

Drapkin

2023

EoR

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The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Investment Complex of Russia

Баранов

Ageeva

2021

jour

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An active discussion continues in Russia regarding the monetary instruments used and the degree of their impact on economic dynamics. The article examines the impact of the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the investment complex in the period from 2000 to 2021. For this period, an analysis of the dependence characterizing the investment complex of Russia on the monetary policy is carried out. In the paper, the investment complex is considered with a breakdown into mechanical engineering, residential and non-residential construction, investments in fixed assets. At the same time, mechanical engineering is studied in detail with a breakdown into subsections of Russian National Classifier of Economic Activities and, additionally, for five enlarged industries. Most of the constructed regression equations demonstrate a statistically significant effect of indicators that are influenced by monetary policy instruments on the dynamics of the main indicators of the investment complex. For example, the interest rate affects the overwhelming number of variables under consideration, and the money supply affects each type of investment in fixed assets, in contrast to other independent variables. For the predominant part of the equations, the value of the coefficient of determination is more than 80%, which indicates a good quality of the model and reliably selected explanatory variables. Based on the results of the calculations, it was concluded that monetary policy has an impact on the investment complex of Russia. This determines its importance for the formation of promising dynamics of the Russian economy.

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Econometric estimation of the impact of oil prices shock on the Russian economy in VECM model

Polbin

2017

Vopr. èkon.

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Russia in 2015: a Supply-Side Recession

Cited by 5 publications

References 1 publication

Intensive and Extensive Margins of Export: Determinants of Economic Growth in Russian Regions under Sanctions

Intensive and Extensive Margins of Export: Determinants of Economic Growth in Russian Regions under Sanctions

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Investment Complex of Russia

Econometric estimation of the impact of oil prices shock on the Russian economy in VECM model

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