Role Model or Role Expansion? Popular Perceptions of the Military in Tunisia

Abstract

This article introduces a theory on military role expansion in emerging democracies and poses a broad question: who wants the military to adopt which role in society and politics? Drawing on an original, nationally representative survey conducted in Tunisia, the article explores people’s preferences for the military to remain a security provider or serve in government and contribute to policing protests. Findings reveal that public support for military role expansion is substantial and varies across political cleavages. We test hypotheses to account for cleavages driven by the country’s authoritarian past versus partisan divides during Tunisia’s transition to democracy. Findings indicate that popular support for military role expansion is driven by anti-system sentiments prevalent in contemporary Tunisian politics: while voters prefer the military as a role model for security provision, non-voters support its enhanced role in politics. These observations have ample implications for the research programs on civil–military relations and the dynamics of democratic consolidation. Tunisia’s experience warrants greater attention to anti-system attitudes caused by people’s disillusionment with democratic procedures. In turn, authoritarian legacies do not appear to play a prominent role during such challenging transitions toward democratic consolidation.

Applying Principal-Agent Theory to Security Force Assistance: The Atypical Case of Post-2015 Tunisia

“…In another survey the army was again firmly on top, trusted by 88 per cent, and the police come second with a more polarising 51 per cent (International Republican Institute 2019). Furthermore, exhibiting strong anti-system sentiment, 50 per cent of the population actually called on the military to expand its role beyond security (Albrecht, Bufano, and Koehler 2021).…”

Popular support for military intervention and anti-establishment alternatives in Tunisia: Appraising outsider eclecticism

“…More recently, former officers have moved to enter the fray of politics by establishing a political party (Al-Hilali, 2019). While ultimately unsuccessful, this party project remains indicative of the military's standing in politics as an 'elephant in the room', with popular support for its enhanced role in politics in particular in times of crisis and uncertainty (Albrecht et al, 2021). On the other hand, the military's deepened engagement in politics would possibly be consequential for the country's prospect for democratic consolidation, but also -as the Egyptian experience reveals -for social peace and security.…”

“…Thus far, these findings are not particularly surprising. We know a section of the Tunisian population has grown disillusioned with democracy and this disillusionment feeds popular support for an authoritarian alternative, such as a stronger role of the military (Albrecht et al, 2021). We also know political parties that have dominated Tunisian politics over the last years were in crisis, illustrated by the 2019 election results (Wolf, 2017).…”