Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors:
                        sensitivities and warming potentials

Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Joshi, Manoj; Shine, Keith P.; Stuber, N.; Ponater, M.; Sausen, R.; Hauglustaine, Didier; Li, Laurent

doi:10.3402/tellusb.v57i4.16549

Cited by 96 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(67 reference statements)

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“…The indirect and semidirect effects are still poorly understood and not included in our analysis. 35,36 • CO 2 forcing: The radiative forcing of CO 2 is calculated by multiplying the change in atmospheric CO 2 concentration following the emission by the radiative efficiency (p 212 of ref 20 65 The time constant of such a change in tropospheric O 3 is assumed to be the time constant of the primary mode, which is 40% longer than the CH 4 turnover time. 17 Also see Supporting Information (S1) and (S2).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Effects of Emission Standards: The Case for Gasoline and Diesel Cars

Tanaka

Berntsen

Fuglestvedt

et al. 2012

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Passenger transport affects climate through various mechanisms involving both long-lived and short-lived climate forcers. Because diesel cars generally emit less CO(2) than gasoline cars, CO(2) emission taxes for vehicle registrations and fuels enhance the consumer preference for diesel cars over gasoline cars. However, with the non-CO(2) components, which have been changed and will be changed under the previous and upcoming vehicle emission standards, what does the shift from gasoline to diesel cars mean for the climate mitigation? By using a simple climate model, we demonstrate that, under the earlier emissions standards (EURO 3 and 4), a diesel car causes a larger warming up to a decade after the emissions than a similar gasoline car due to the higher emissions of black carbon and NO(X) (enhancing the O(3) production). Beyond a decade, the warming caused by a diesel car becomes, however, weaker because of the lower CO(2) emissions. As the latter emissions standards (EURO 5 and 6) are phased in, the short-term warming due to a diesel car becomes smaller primarily due to the lower black carbon emissions. Thus, although results are subject to restrictive assumptions and uncertainties, the switch from gasoline to diesel cars encouraged by CO(2) taxes does not contradict with the climate mitigation focusing on long-term consequences.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Effects of Emission Standards: The Case for Gasoline and Diesel Cars

Tanaka

Berntsen

Fuglestvedt

et al. 2012

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…Boer and Yu 2003). Many other perturbations of atmospheric species, especially short-lived ones, produce a distinctly heterogeneous radiative forcing which causes further inhomogeneity in the response which can be strongly dependent on the location of the forcing (Forster et al 2000;Joshi et al 2003;Berntsen et al 2005;. Additionally the sign of the forcing (and hence response) varies between different species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

How much information is lost by using global-mean climate metrics? an example using the transport sector

et al. 2012

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Metrics are often used to compare the climate impacts of emissions from various sources, sectors or nations. These are usually based on global-mean input, and so there is the potential that important information on smaller scales is lost. Assuming a non-linear dependence of the climate impact on local surface temperature change, we explore the loss of information about regional variability that results from using global-mean input in the specific case of heterogeneous changes in ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations resulting from emissions from road traffic, aviation and shipping. Results from equilibrium simulations with two general circulation models are used. An alternative metric for capturing the regional climate impacts is investigated. We find that the application of a metric that is first calculated locally and then averaged globally captures a more complete and informative signal of climate impact than one that uses global-mean input. The loss of information when heterogeneity is ignored is largest in the case of aviation. Further investigation of the spatial distribution of temperature change indicates that although the pattern of temperature response does not closely match the pattern of the forcing, the forcing pattern still influences the response pattern on a hemispheric scale. When the short-lived transport forcing is superimposed on present-day anthropogenic CO 2 forcing, the heterogeneity in the temperature response to CO 2 dominates. This suggests that the importance of including regional

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“…The O 3 response is influenced by the background NO x concentrations (e.g., Isaksen et al, 1978;Berntsen and Isaksen, 1999), the abundance of HO x , VOCs (e.g., Lin et al, 1988;Jaegl e et al, 1998) or the intensity of solar flux. These different influences result in quite a specific behaviour, as different climate responses might result from equal global mean RFs arising from the same amount of emitted NO x at different locations (e.g., Berntsen et al, 2005;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study we explore the global responses form regional emissions, by employing the 'popular' metrics: radiative forcing (RF) and Global Warming Potential (GWP), that have been successfully exploited in other regional studies (e.g., Berntsen et al, 2005;Fry et al, 2013). However, in order to explore the different aspects of regional and sub-global patterns of responses, the new concepts have been also developed, e.g., the non-linear damage function Lund et al, 2012) or Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (Shindell, 2012;Collins et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NO x emissions

Skowron

Lee

León

2015

Atmospheric Environment

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h i g h l i g h t sThe effects from hemispherical/regional aircraft NO x emissions are explored using 3D CTM, MOZART-3. The climate metrics values decrease with increasing regional aircraft NO x emission rates, except for Southeast Asia. Regional applications of an equal mass and a relative mass of aircraft NO x emission result in different regional dependencies. The greatest net NO x radiative forcing is observed for remote northern oceanic regions. a b s t r a c tThe response to hemispherical and regional aircraft NO x emissions is explored by using two climate metrics: radiative forcing (RF) and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The global chemistry transport model, MOZART-3 CTM, is applied in this study for a series of incremental aircraft NO x emission integrations to different regions. It was found that the sensitivity of chemical responses per unit emission rate from regional aircraft NO x emissions varies with size of aircraft NO x emission rate and that climate metric values decrease with increasing aircraft NO x emission rates, except for Southeast Asia. Previous work has recognized that aircraft NO x GWPs may vary regionally. However, the way in which these regional GWPs are calculated are critical. Previous studies have added a fixed amount of NO x to different regions. This approach can heavily bias the results of a regional GWP because of the well-established sensitivity of O 3 production to background NO x whereby the Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is greater at small background NO x . Thus, even a small addition of NO x in a clean-air area can produce a large O 3 response. Using this 'fixed addition' method of 0.035 Tg(N) yr À1 , results in the greatest effect observed for North Atlantic and Brazil,~10.0 mW m À2 /Tg(N) yr À1 . An alternative 'proportional approach' is also taken that preserves the subtle balance of local NO x eO 3 eCH 4 systems with the existing emission patterns of aircraft and background NO x , whereby a proportional amount of aircraft NO x , 5% (N) yr À1 , is added to each region in order to determine the response. This results in the greatest effect observed for North Pacific that with its net NO x RF of 23.7 mW m À2 /Tg(N) yr À1 is in contrast with the 'fixed addition' method. For determining regional NO x GWPs, it is argued that the 'proportional' approach gives more representative results. However, a constraint of both approaches is that the regional GWP determined is dependent on the relative global emission pattern, so if that changes in the future, the regional NO x GWP will change.

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Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials

Cited by 96 publications

References 45 publications

Climate Effects of Emission Standards: The Case for Gasoline and Diesel Cars

Climate Effects of Emission Standards: The Case for Gasoline and Diesel Cars

How much information is lost by using global-mean climate metrics? an example using the transport sector

Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NO x emissions

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