Climate Effects of Emission Standards: The Case for Gasoline and Diesel Cars

Tanaka, Katsumasa; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Rypdal, Kristin

doi:10.1021/es204190w

Cited by 31 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…To determine aviation-attributable climate impacts, APMT-IC first calculates the radiative forcing (RF) associated with both CO 2 and non-CO 2 emissions. APMT-IC follows other studies (Tanaka et al 2012, Fuglestvedt et al 2014, Ricke and Caldeira 2014, Zhang et al 2014, Lacey et al 2017, de Jong et al 2018 by using an impulse response function to estimate how CO 2 concentrations will change in response to a change in CO 2 emissions. The impulse response function models the fraction of a CO 2 emissions pulse remaining in the atmosphere as a function of time (Hasselmann et al 1997, Fuglestvedt et al 2010, Joos et al 2013.…”

Section: Climate Impactmentioning

confidence: 97%

Marginal climate and air quality costs of aviation emissions

Grobler

Wolfe

Dasadhikari

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Aviation emissions have been found to cause 5% of global anthropogenic radiative forcing and ∼16 000 premature deaths annually due to impaired air quality. When aiming to reduce these impacts, decision makers often face trade-offs between different emission species or impacts in different times and locations. To inform rational decision-making, this study computes aviation's marginal climate and air quality impacts per tonne of species emitted and accounts for the altitude, location, and chemical composition of emissions. Climate impacts are calculated using a reduced-order climate model, and air quality-related health impacts are quantified using marginal atmospheric sensitivities to emissions from the adjoint of the global chemistry-transport model GEOS-Chem in combination with concentration response functions and the value of statistical life. The results indicate that 90% of the global impacts per unit of fuel burn are attributable to cruise emissions, and that 64% of all damages are the result of air quality impacts. Furthermore, nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and contrails are collectively responsible for 97% of the total impact. Applying our result metrics to an example, we find that a 20% NO x stringency scenario for new aircraft would reduce the net atmospheric impacts by 700 m USD during the first year of operation, even if the NO x emission reductions cause a small increase in CO 2 emissions of 2%. In such a way, the damage metrics can be used to rapidly evaluate the atmospheric impacts of market growth as well as emissions trade-offs of aviation-related policies or technology improvements.

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Section: Climate Impactmentioning

confidence: 97%

Marginal climate and air quality costs of aviation emissions

Grobler

Wolfe

Dasadhikari

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Emission metrics have numerous different applications (Fuglestvedt et al, 2003;Tanaka et al, 2010), but the main ones are to (1) provide an "exchange rate" on how to weigh the emissions of different species for mitigation policies, as in the Kyoto Protocol, and to be able to report emission under the UNFCCC (Skodvin and Fuglestvedt, 1997), (2) perform comparisons of different activities and technologies that emit species at different rates such as in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) (Peters et al, 2011b;Pennington et al, 2004;Boucher and Reddy, 2008;Tanaka et al, 2012), and (3) compare the climate impacts of the emissions of different species to gain greater scientific understanding (e.g., Collins et al, 2010;. Due to the variety of applications, there is no obvious scientific need to have one single metric for all applications, and a range of different metrics may even be used in one application.…”

Section: Metric Overview Key Components and Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

2013

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In the context of climate change, emissions of different species (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane) are not directly comparable since they have different radiative efficiencies and lifetimes. Since comparisons via detailed climate models are computationally expensive and complex, emission metrics were developed to allow a simple and straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of emissions of different species. Emission metrics are not unique and variety of different emission metrics has been proposed, with key choices being the climate impacts and time horizon to use for comparisons. In this paper, we present analytical expressions and describe how to calculate common emission metrics for different species. We include the climate metrics radiative forcing, integrated radiative forcing, temperature change and integrated temperature change in both absolute form and normalised to a reference gas. We consider pulse emissions, sustained emissions and emission scenarios. The species are separated into three types: CO₂ which has a complex decay over time, species with a simple exponential decay, and ozone precursors (NO_x, CO, VOC) which indirectly effect climate via various chemical interactions. We also discuss deriving Impulse Response Functions, radiative efficiency, regional dependencies, consistency within and between metrics and uncertainties. We perform various applications to highlight key applications of emission metrics, which show that emissions of CO₂ are important regardless of what metric and time horizon is used, but that the importance of short lived climate forcers varies greatly depending on the metric choices made. Further, the ranking of countries by emissions changes very little with different metrics despite large differences in metric values, except for the shortest time horizons (GWP20)

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“…The perturbation caused by a pulse emission of CH 4 as well as aerosols is assumed to follow a simple exponential decay with one time scale determined by the atmospheric residence time of the respective [55] (see also [56]). This parameterization is used in simple climate models applied to transport studies [38,52]. For input to the simple climate model, PM emissions in the emission factors are split into BC and OC emissions using fractions reported by [57].…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, actual climate benefits of switching from gasoline to diesel vehicles have been deeply questioned due to a number of confounding factors [47][48][49][50][51]. Our previous study [52] (T2012, thereafter) showed that, under idealized settings, switching from gasoline to diesel vehicles with comparable engine performances contributes to a lower warming in the long run. This is because diesel vehicles generally emit less CO 2 than gasoline vehicles per unit driving distance under equal driving conditions [50], assuming that the emissions of other pollutants are held at the Euro standard levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars

Tanaka

Lund

Aamaas

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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On-road operations of Volkswagen light-duty diesel vehicles equipped with defeat devices cause emissions of NO x up to 40 times above emission standards. Higher on-road NO x emissions are a widespread problem not limited to Volkswagen vehicles, but the Volkswagen violations brought this issue under the spotlight. While several studies investigated the health impacts of high NO x emissions, the climatic impacts have not been quantified. Here we show that such diesel cars generate a larger warming on the time scale of several years but a smaller warming on the decadal time scale during actual on-road operations than in vehicle certification tests. The difference in longer-term warming levels, however, depends on underlying driving conditions. Furthermore, in the presence of defeat devices, the climatic advantage of 'clean diesel' cars over gasoline cars, in terms of global-mean temperature change, is in our view not necessarily the case.

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Climate Effects of Emission Standards: The Case for Gasoline and Diesel Cars

Cited by 31 publications

References 62 publications

Marginal climate and air quality costs of aviation emissions

Marginal climate and air quality costs of aviation emissions

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars

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