How much information is lost by using global-mean climate metrics? an example using the transport sector

Lund, Marianne T.; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Ponater, Michael; Shine, Keith P.

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0391-3

Cited by 26 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(43 reference statements)

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Section: Implementation Of Accri Results In a Simple Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Assuming a nonlinear dependence of the climate impact on temperature change, Lund et al (2012) explored the loss of information about the impacts on smaller spatial scales that result from global metrics in the case of heterogeneous RF caused by short-term climate forcers. As not all ACCRI models simulated the temperature change, the applicability of the Lund et al (2012) methodology was limited. Instead, the distributions of RFs from ACCRI model simulations have been used in combination with the recently introduced concept of regional temperature change potential (RTP; Shindell and Faluvegi 2009;Shindell 2012) to estimate temperature change in multiple zonal bands.…”

Section: Implementation Of Accri Results In a Simple Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Brasseur

Gupta

Anderson

et al. 2016

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Current and future climate impacts of aviation emissions are quantified using a combination of atmospheric models, surface and satellite observations, and laboratory experiments. IMPACT OF AVIATION ON CLIMATEFAA's Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II by Guy P. brasseur, Mohan GuPta, bruce e. anderson, sathya balasubraManian, steven barrett, david duda, GreGG FleMinG, Piers M. Forster, Jan FuGlestvedt, andrew GettelMan, ranGasayi n. halthore, s. daniel Jacob, Mark Z. Jacobson, areZoo khodayari, kuo-nan liou, Marianne t. lund, richard c. Miake-lye, Patrick Minnis, seth olsen, Joyce e. Penner, ronald Prinn, ulrich schuMann, henry b. selkirk, andrei sokolov, nadine unGer, PhiliP wolFe, hsi-wu wonG, donald w. wuebbles, binGqi yi, PinG yanG, and chenG Zhou D uring the course of flight, aircraft burn fuel and emit gases and particles into the atmosphere, primarily at cruise altitudes within the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS).These emissions include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water vapor (H 2 O), hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x or NO + NO 2 ), sulfur oxides (SO x ), and nonvolatile black carbon (BC or AFFILIATIONS: brasseur-Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; GuPta, halthore, and Jacob-Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, d.c.; anderson and Minnis-nasa Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; balasubraManian and FleMinG-Volpe Center, Department of Transportation, Cambridge, Massachusetts; barrett, Prinn, sokolov, and wolFe-Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts; dudassai/nasa Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; ForsterUniversity of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; FuGlestvedt and lundcicero, Norway; GettelMan-National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Jacobson-Stanford University, Palo Alto, California; khodayari*, olsen, and wuebbles-University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois; liou-University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California; Miake-lye and wonG*-Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts; Penner and Zhou-University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; The impact of these emissions on UTLS has been examined for several decades (Schumann 1994;Brasseur et al. 1998;Penner et al. 1999;Lee et al. 2009 1 Gaseous emissions of SO x and NO x evolve and partially transform into volatile nitrate and sulfate aerosols and those of gaseous HC emissions into semivolatile organic particles, which also contribute to climate change. Particles like sulfates generally have a cooling effect (negative RF) unless they coat soot particles, which exert warming effects. Note that BC particles are normally considered to be the main component of soot particles.Persistent linear contrails produced in the wake of aircraft contribute to net climate warming. Contrailinduced cirrus clouds (AIC) are also expected to affect the solar and terrestrial infrared radiative budget of the atmosphere, but t...

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Section: Implementation Of Accri Results In a Simple Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Implementation Of Accri Results In a Simple Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Brasseur

Gupta

Anderson

et al. 2016

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…However, on the assumption that the emission metrics are applied to marginal emission changes and the metrics are applied to background conditions consistent with the derivation of the metric parameters, these responses should agree to within first-order of the actual response. The largest differences are expected for short-lived species where the location and timing of emissions are important (Lund et al, 2011).…”

Section: Absolute Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While most parameterisations of impacts parameters are for global means, metric research has also focused on metrics accounting for regional variations (Shine et al, 2005a;Lund et al, 2011) or regional metrics (Berntsen et al, 2005;Fuglestvedt et al, 2010;Fry et al, 2012;Collins et al, 2013). separate the world into four latitude bands and estimated regional responses from regional RFs for some selected LLGHGs and SLCFs, though it is feasible to do this at smaller scales (Henze et al, 2012).…”

Section: Regional Metric Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

2013

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In the context of climate change, emissions of different species (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane) are not directly comparable since they have different radiative efficiencies and lifetimes. Since comparisons via detailed climate models are computationally expensive and complex, emission metrics were developed to allow a simple and straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of emissions of different species. Emission metrics are not unique and variety of different emission metrics has been proposed, with key choices being the climate impacts and time horizon to use for comparisons. In this paper, we present analytical expressions and describe how to calculate common emission metrics for different species. We include the climate metrics radiative forcing, integrated radiative forcing, temperature change and integrated temperature change in both absolute form and normalised to a reference gas. We consider pulse emissions, sustained emissions and emission scenarios. The species are separated into three types: CO₂ which has a complex decay over time, species with a simple exponential decay, and ozone precursors (NO_x, CO, VOC) which indirectly effect climate via various chemical interactions. We also discuss deriving Impulse Response Functions, radiative efficiency, regional dependencies, consistency within and between metrics and uncertainties. We perform various applications to highlight key applications of emission metrics, which show that emissions of CO₂ are important regardless of what metric and time horizon is used, but that the importance of short lived climate forcers varies greatly depending on the metric choices made. Further, the ranking of countries by emissions changes very little with different metrics despite large differences in metric values, except for the shortest time horizons (GWP20)

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“…The ARTP does not provide temperature change estimates at the small spatial scales required for many impact assessments, but does provide additional insight into the spatial pattern of temperature response to inhomogeneous forcings beyond that available from traditional global metrics. Very few metrics have attempted to examine sub-global scales thus far, though some have used local information with non-linear global damage metrics (Shine et al, 2005a;Lund et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential

Shindell

2012

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28 • S, 28 • S-28 • N, 28-60 • N and 60-90 • N) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within ±20 % of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28 • S and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the ±20 % range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95 % confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45 % and 9-39 % more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model.

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How much information is lost by using global-mean climate metrics? an example using the transport sector

Cited by 26 publications

References 35 publications

Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential

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