Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Brasseur, Guy; Gupta, Mohan L.; Anderson, B. E.; Balasubramanian, S.; Barrett, Steven R. H.; Duda, David P.; Fleming, Gregggg; Forster, Piers M.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Gettelman, Andrew; Halthore, R. N.; Jacob, Samuel; Jacobson, Mark Z.; Khodayari, Arezoo; Liou, K. N.; Lund, Marianne T.; Miake-Lye, Richard C.; Minnis, Patrick; Olsen, S. C.; Penner, Joyce E.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Schumann, U.; Selkirk, Henry B.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Unger, Nadine; Wolfe, Philip J.; Wong, Hsi‐Wu; Wuebbles, Donald W.; Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping; Zhou, Cheng

doi:10.1175/bams-d-13-00089.1

Cited by 104 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…We further derive SO 2 emissions by scaling the BC emissions with the ratio of the emission factors of the two species at each altitude level (see R13 for details) in all scenarios. This results in total aviation emissions of 0.168 Tg(SO 2 ) a −1 in 2000, which compares well with the ACCRI/AEDT value of 0.221 Tg(SO 2 ) a −1 in 2006 (Brasseur et al, 2015). We further assume that 2.2 % of the sulfur mass is emitted as primary SO 4 , based on Jurkat et al (2011).…”

Section: Model Setup Emission Inventories and Model Simulationssupporting

confidence: 66%

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

2016

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Abstract. We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to simulate the impact of aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare our findings with the results of a previous study with the same model configuration focusing on year 2000 emissions. We also characterize the aviation results in the context of the other transport sectors presented in a companion paper. In spite of a relevant increase in aviation traffic volume and resulting emissions of aerosol (black carbon) and aerosol precursor species (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), the aviation effect on particle mass concentration in 2030 remains quite negligible (on the order of a few ng m −3 ), about 1 order of magnitude less than the increase in concentration due to other emission sources. Due to the relatively small size of the aviation-induced aerosol, however, the increase in particle number concentration is significant in all scenarios (about 1000 cm −3 ), mostly affecting the northern mid-latitudes at typical flight altitudes (7-12 km). This largely contributes to the overall change in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030, which also results in significant climate effects due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Aviation is the only transport sector for which a larger impact on the Earth's radiation budget is simulated in the future: the aviation-induced radiative forcing in 2030 is more than doubled with respect to the year 2000 value of −15 mW m −2 in all scenarios, with a maximum value of −63 mW m −2 simulated for RCP2.6.

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Section: Model Setup Emission Inventories and Model Simulationssupporting

confidence: 66%

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

2016

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“…The formation of contrails should increase the cloud fraction and its volume is, under our contrail parameterization, the product of flight distance and a cross section of 300 and 300 m. However, the uptake of background humidity upon the formation of contrails leads to a reduction of relative humidity of the grid cell.. Such dehydration process has been discussed in Brasseur et al (1998Brasseur et al ( , 2015, Sausen et al (2005), Lee et al (2009Lee et al ( , 2010 and Boucher et al (2013). Indeed, it is found that the relative/specific humidity at the cruise altitude is slightly reduced over Central Europe and eastern USA (not shown).…”

Section: Zonal Mean Perturbationsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols

Chen

Gettelman

2016

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. The radiative forcing from aviation-induced cloudiness is investigated by using the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) in the present (2006) and the future (through 2050). Global flight distance is projected to increase by a factor of 4 between 2006 and 2050. However, simulated contrail cirrus radiative forcing in 2050 can reach 87 mW m −2 , an increase by a factor of 7 from 2006, and thus does not scale linearly with fuel emission mass. This is due to non-uniform regional increase in air traffic and different sensitivities for contrail radiative forcing in different regions.CAM5 simulations indicate that negative radiative forcing induced by the indirect effect of aviation sulfate aerosols on liquid clouds in 2050 can be as large as −160 mW m −2 , an increase by a factor of 4 from 2006. As a result, the net 2050 radiative forcing of contrail cirrus and aviation aerosols may have a cooling effect on the planet. Aviation sulfate aerosols emitted at cruise altitude can be transported down to the lower troposphere, increasing the aerosol concentration, thus increasing the cloud drop number concentration and persistence of low-level clouds. Aviation black carbon aerosols produce a negligible net forcing globally in 2006 and 2050 in this model study.Uncertainties in the methodology and the modeling are significant and discussed in detail. Nevertheless, the projected percentage increase in contrail radiative forcing is important for future aviation impacts. In addition, the role of aviation aerosols in the cloud nucleation processes can greatly influence on the simulated radiative forcing from aircraft-induced cloudiness and even change its sign. Future research to confirm these results is necessary.

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“…The model is driven by air traffic waypoint data. Here, we use a global data set for the year 2006, including about 80 000 flights day −1 , as provided within the AC-CRI (Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative) project (Wilkerson et al, 2010;Brasseur et al, 2015). The fuel consumption and the corresponding water emissions from aircraft engines are available with these waypoint data.…”

Section: The Contrail Simulation Model Cocipmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, the dehydration effects from contrails are not well known. Previous assessments of the climate impact of aviation (Schumann, 1994;Brasseur et al, 1998Brasseur et al, , 2015Penner et al, 1999;Sausen et al, 2005;Lee et al, 2009Lee et al, , 2010Boucher et al, 2013) discussed the dehydration effects from contrails qualitatively. Burkhardt and Kärcher (2011) were the first to quantify the dehydration effects within a global climate model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dehydration effects from contrails in a coupled contrail–climate model

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The uptake of water by contrails in icesupersaturated air and the release of water after ice particle advection and sedimentation dehydrates the atmosphere at flight levels and redistributes humidity mainly to lower levels. The dehydration is investigated by coupling a plumescale contrail model with a global aerosol-climate model. The contrail model simulates all the individual contrails forming from global air traffic for meteorological conditions as defined by the climate model. The computed contrail cirrus properties compare reasonably with theoretical concepts and observations. The mass of water in aged contrails may exceed 10 6 times the mass of water emitted from aircraft. Many of the ice particles sediment and release water in the troposphere, on average 700 m below the mean flight levels. Simulations with and without coupling are compared. The drying at contrail levels causes thinner and longer-lived contrails with about 15 % reduced contrail radiative forcing (RF). The reduced RF from contrails is on the order of 0.06 W m −2 , slightly larger than estimated earlier because of higher soot emissions. For normal traffic, the RF from dehydration is small compared to interannual variability. A case with emissions increased by 100 times is used to overcome statistical uncertainty. The contrails impact the entire hydrological cycle in the atmosphere by reducing the total water column and the cover by high-and low-level clouds. For normal traffic, the dehydration changes contrail RF by positive shortwave and negative longwave contributions on the order of 0.04 W m −2 , with a small negative net RF. The total net RF from contrails and dehydration remains within the range of previous estimates.

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Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II

Cited by 104 publications

References 74 publications

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 – Part 2: Aviation

Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols

Dehydration effects from contrails in a coupled contrail–climate model

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