Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002–2052

Bijak, Jakub; Kupiszewska, Dorota; Kupiszewski, Marek

doi:10.1007/s11113-007-9065-2

Cited by 71 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…Future changes in migration policies can affect the volume and composition of migration flows, but the analysis of the possible impact is beyond the scope of this paper. Bijak et al (2008) demonstrate the effect of different assumptions of the volume of net migration on the total population and the labor force by comparing various demographic and economic indicators. For their projections of labor force participation, Balleer, Gómez-Salvador, and Turunen (2009) calculated a scenario with zero future migration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

Loichinger¹

2015

DemRes

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

Loichinger¹

2015

DemRes

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“…In a typical scenario in which Germany's population remains roughly constant, it will have over a million migrants in each 5-year period. This figure is still substantially lower than the replacement migration figures given by Bijak et al (24), who predict that 2.1 million in-migrants will be needed in 2047-2052 if Germany is to maintain constant population. Our figure is lower due to two main methodological differences.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 56%

“…Our figure is lower due to two main methodological differences. First, Bijak et al (24) assume a fertility target of 1.5 children per woman in 2050, whereas our median projection for Germany is 1.62. Second, we report the conditional median of migration given high population; near the target population trajectory, it is likely that fertility and/or life expectancy will also be higher than average.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 90%

Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty

Azose

Ševčíková

Raftery

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.Bayesian hierarchical model | international migration | predictive distribution | United Nations | World Population Prospects I n this paper we describe a method for probabilistic projection of population for all countries, with a focus on accounting for uncertainty in projections of international migration. In particular, we are motivated by the needs of the United Nations (UN) Population Division in producing population projections for all countries until 2100 based on projections of fertility, mortality, and migration.A variety of forces contribute to the ebb and flow of international migration. Economic theories at varying levels of granularity indicate that migration flows can arise from individual attempts to maximize income (1, 2), household-level mitigation of risk (3, 4), or differences in global supply and demand for labor (5, 6). Individuals decide to migrate based on an assessment of push and pull factors (7), which may include migration policy (8), geopolitical conflict (9), and quality of the natural environment (10, 11). Networks of migrants provide a feedback mechanism such that migration flows tend to perpetuate themselves over time (12,13). Bijak (14) gives a thorough overview of theories and models of international migration. Despite their acknowledged role in driving migration, our model does not make use of push and pull factors, economic or otherwise, as covariates. Such factors are largely too difficult to predict in the long term to be of use. Instead, we appeal to the inertia of selfperpetuating migration patterns by modeling migration as an autoregressive process.Historically, most methods for projecting population have been deterministic. If the current population is known, broken down by age and sex, and future age-and sex-specific rates are projected for fertility, mortality, and migration, then the cohortcomponent method produces population projections (15). However, the UN Population Division now produces probabilistic projections of population, fertility, and mortality for all countries, but these projections still condition on deterministic migration projections (16, 17). The current methodology in the UN's World Population Prospects (WPP) differs from country to country but typically projects that net migration counts will remain cons...

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“…Immigration also seems to be a possible way to overcome ageing of the native population of the developed countries. Some publications argue that immigration cannot solve this problem (Coale, 1986;Espenshade, 1994;Day, 1996;Bijak et al, 2008). However, the projections in these papers cover only about a 40-year period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of a Two Subpopulations System Including Immigration

Zincenko

Petrovskii

2017

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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Abstract. The phenomenon of replacement migration into declining population prompts development of multicomponent models in population dynamics. We propose a simple model of population including resident and migrant components with migration flow as an external input. The main assumption is that offspring that are born to migrants will have the same vital rates as the resident population. The proposed model is based on partial differential equation to take into account the age structure of the population. The formulae for exact solutions are derived. We focus on the case when native population declines in the absence of migration. Assuming a sufficiently large constant growth rate of migration we obtain asymptotic solutions as t → ∞. Using the asymptotic solutions, we have calculated "critical" value of growth rate of migrant inflow that is the value that provides, as time tends to infinity, the equal number of residents and migrants in the population. We provide numerical illustrations using demographic data for Germany in 2010.

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Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002–2052

Cited by 71 publications

References 11 publications

Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty

Dynamics of a Two Subpopulations System Including Immigration

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