Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

Loichinger, Elke

doi:10.4054/demres.2015.32.15

Cited by 44 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…The basic agespecific projections are sometimes augmented by a stage classification to examine the joint age 9 stage dynamics. The flavor of these efforts is shown by studies on, e.g., the interaction of age with citizenship status (S anchez Gassen 2014), disability (Van der Gaag et al 2015), or education level (Loichinger 2015).…”

Section: Explicit and Implicit Age Dependencementioning

confidence: 99%

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Age × stage‐classified demographic analysis: a comprehensive approach

Caswell

Vries

Hartemink

et al. 2018

Ecological Monographs

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This paper presents a comprehensive theory for the demographic analysis of populations in which individuals are classified by both age and stage. The earliest demographic models were age classified. Ecologists adopted methods developed by human demographers and used life tables to quantify survivorship and fertility of cohorts and the growth rates and structures of populations. Later, motivated by studies of plants and insects, matrix population models structured by size or stage were developed. The theory of these models has been extended to cover all the aspects of age‐classified demography and more. It is a natural development to consider populations classified by both age and stage. A steady trickle of results has appeared since the 1960s, analyzing one or another aspect of age × stage‐classified populations, in both ecology and human demography. Here, we use the vec‐permutation formulation of multistate matrix population models to incorporate age‐ and stage‐specific vital rates into demographic analysis. We present cohort results for the life table functions (survivorship, mortality, and fertility), the dynamics of intra‐cohort selection, the statistics of longevity, the joint distribution of age and stage at death, and the statistics of life disparity. Combining transitions and fertility yields a complete set of population dynamic results, including population growth rates and structures, net reproductive rate, the statistics of lifetime reproduction, and measures of generation time. We present a complete analysis of a hypothetical model species, inspired by poecilogonous marine invertebrates that produce two kinds of larval offspring. Given the joint effects of age and stage, many familiar demographic results become multidimensional, so calculations of marginal and mixture distributions are an important tool. From an age‐classified point of view, stage structure is a form of unobserved heterogeneity. From a stage‐classified point of view, age structure is unobserved heterogeneity. In an age × stage‐classified model, variance in demographic outcomes can be partitioned into contributions from both sources. Because these models are formulated as matrices, they are amenable to a complete sensitivity analysis. As more detailed and longer longitudinal studies are developed, age × stage‐classified demography will become more common and more important.

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Section: Explicit and Implicit Age Dependencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The flavor of these efforts is shown by studies on, e.g., the interaction of age with citizenship status (Sánchez Gassen ), disability (Van der Gaag et al. ), or education level (Loichinger ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age × stage‐classified demographic analysis: a comprehensive approach

Caswell

Vries

Hartemink

et al. 2018

Ecological Monographs

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“…Figure 1). Also, the higher the education level, the smaller the differences between male and female participation rates (Loichinger 2015). Employment rates are highest for people with tertiary education, whereas their unemployment rates are consistently lower than for those with less educational attainment (OECD 2013), which is an indicator of the continued demand for workers with higher education and special skills.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education

Loichinger¹,

Prskawetz²

2017

DemRes

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“…The phenomenon of population aging has been recognized for many years by demographers, economists, and others and there has been a variety of approaches used to assess the possible role of immigration as an instrument to offset its negative effects. Attention has been given by various authors to population size and age distribution (Bijak et al, 2007(Bijak et al, , 2008Loichinger, 2015;Mamolo and Scherbov, 2009;United Nations, 2013), the overall level of economic activity and standard of living (Barrell, Fitzgerald, and Riley, 2010;Denton and Spencer, 2000;Kahanec and Zimmerman, 2008;Lee and Mason, 2011;Masson and Tryon, 1990), the fiscal positions of governments (Auerbach and Oreopoulos, 2000;Bonin et al, 2000;Dustmann et al, 2010;Lee and Miller, 2000;Rowthorn, 2008;Storesletten, 2000), and more particularly to the sustainability of publicly financed pension and health care programs (Alonso, 2009;Anderson and Hussey, 2000;Scherbov et al, 2014). Others have been concerned with possible undesirable effects of immigration on the incomes and employment of the domestic population (Borjas, 2003;Brücker and Jahn, 2009;Card, 2009Card, , 2012Dustmann et al, 2005Dustmann et al, , 2013Friedberg and Hunt, 1995;Jean and Jiménez, 2010;Longhi et al, 2005;Okkerse, 2008;Ottaviano and Peri, 2007;Peri, 2012;Ruhs and Vargas-Silva, 2014) and on the distribution of government transfer payments as between immigrants and non-immigrants (Blanchflower and Shadforth, 2009;Kerr and Kerr, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simulation Analysis of the Longer-Term Effects of Immigration on per Capita Income in an Aging Population

Denton

Spencer

2015

SSRN Journal

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Immigration is a possible instrument for offsetting longer-run adverse effects of population aging on per capita income. Our "laboratory" is a fictional country Alpha to which we assign demographic characteristics typical of a country experiencing population aging. Simulations indicate that a very high immigration rate with heavy concentration in younger working ages might be required to keep per capita income from declining. More rapid productivity growth would also offset population aging as would higher rates of labour participation of older people. Longer life expectancy, taken alone, would lower per capita real income, as would higher fertility rates.

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Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

Cited by 44 publications

References 29 publications

Age × stage‐classified demographic analysis: a comprehensive approach

Age × stage‐classified demographic analysis: a comprehensive approach

Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education

A Simulation Analysis of the Longer-Term Effects of Immigration on per Capita Income in an Aging Population

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