Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education

Loichinger, Elke; Prskawetz, Alexia

doi:10.4054/demres.2017.36.40

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Policy options that would aim at accommodating rather than at affecting demographic trends can focus on improving economic activity and productivity (Rees at al. 2012;Loichinger and Prskawetz 2017;Marois, Bélanger, and Lutz 2020). We showed that the future workingage population will have higher human capital, and it is important to emphasise that the same holds for 65 and over population.…”

Section: Population Ageing and Age Dependencymentioning

confidence: 68%

Migration and demographic disparities in macro-regions of the European Union, a view to 2060

Potančoková¹,

Stonawski²,

Gailey³

2021

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDMigration has become one of the most salient policy areas in the European Union. In response, the European Commission established a research team with the task of investigating a range of possible demographic futures. OBJECTIVEThis paper explores the demographic effects of migration on eastern, southern, and western EU regions, using different scenarios to see the extent population size, workingage population, education composition, and total age dependency can be influenced. METHODSWe use a deterministic cohort-component projection model that (a) incorporates improving levels of educational attainment in the population and (b) explicit consideration of migration between EU member states (MS) and migration between EU MS and the rest of the world. Eight stylised what-if scenarios are developed around a medium assumption projection. RESULTSAlthough migration can have a large effect on total and working-age population size, the EU population will continue to age and see a rise in age dependency regardless. Despite depopulation occurring in many eastern MS, the region is and should remain in a better position than the south and on par with the west in terms of age dependency.

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Section: Population Ageing and Age Dependencymentioning

confidence: 68%

Migration and demographic disparities in macro-regions of the European Union, a view to 2060

Potančoková¹,

Stonawski²,

Gailey³

2021

DemRes

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“…In this context and in response to population ageing, many EU countries have reformed policies in an effort to increase labour force participation at older ages (Annesley, 2007). Indeed, employment rates at older ages have risen throughout Europe in recent years (Loichinger and Skirbekk, 2016;Loichinger and Prskawetz, 2017) as well as specifically in Germany (Dietz and Walwei, 2011).…”

Section: Institutional Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity of employment biographies and prospects of middle-aged welfare recipients

Zabel

2023

Longitudinal and Life Course Studies

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Employment re-entry opportunities decrease with age. For middle-aged welfare benefit recipients, employment obstacles connected to age exacerbate further disadvantages connected to welfare receipt. At the same time, there is considerable diversity in middle-aged welfare benefit recipients’ long-term employment trajectories, which has thus far received little attention. Policies aim to increase labour market participation at higher ages. To this end, it is important to understand specific difficulties and to be realistic when formulating goals for people with very diverse types of employment histories. Using large-scale register data, this paper’s focus is on a cohort aged 45–54 in August 2012 in Germany. Sequence analysis aids in identifying characteristics relevant to employment histories over the past 19 years, from January 1993 to July 2012. Subsequent employment outcomes over the time span September 2012 to December 2018 are investigated, differentiating between jobs of different quality, and effects of training programmes on these outcomes are analysed using entropy balancing methods. Findings are that middle-aged welfare recipients’ employment biographies are very diverse, ranging from very little employment experience, over long histories of intermittent employment, to long continuous employment histories. Employment history attributes significantly affect employment prospects. The analyses further show that it is not too late to invest in skills, independent of employment history type.

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“…If this favourable time interval is used to invest in education, health and infrastructure, this will boost economic growth and development. The resulting increase in economic performance and prosperity is usually addressed as the first demographic dividend (Bloom and Williamson, 1998;Dörflinger and Loichinger, 2024). Since such an advantageous age structure cannot be sustained forever, we postulate that the population has to reach a stationary state in the long term.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility decline and age-structure in China and India

Fent,

Wrzaczek,

Feichtinger

et al. 2024

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China and India, two Asian countries that experienced a rapid decline in fertility since the middle of the twentieth century, are the focus of this paper. Although there is no doubt that lower fertility levels have many positive effects on the economy, development and sustainability, little is known about the optimal transition from high to medium or even low levels of fertility. Firstly, implementing policies that have the potential to reduce fertility is costly. Secondly, additional costs arise from adapting the infrastructure to a population that fluctuates quickly not only in terms of size but also with respect to the age structure. We apply an intertemporal optimisation model that takes the costs and benefits of fertility decline into account. The optimal time path depends on the cost structure, the planning horizon and the initial conditions. In the case of a long planning horizon and high initial fertility, it may even be optimal to reduce fertility temporarily below replacement level in order to slow down population growth at an early stage. A key finding of our formal investigation is that, under the same plausible parameter settings, the optimal paths for China and India differ substantially. Moreover, our analysis shows that India, where the fertility decline emerged as a consequence of societal and economic developments, followed a path closer to the optimal fertility transition than China, where the fertility decline was state-imposed. The mathematical approach deployed for this analysis provides insights into the optimal long-term development of fertility and allows for policy conclusions to be drawn for other countries that are still in the fertility transition process.

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Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education

Cited by 14 publications

References 10 publications

Migration and demographic disparities in macro-regions of the European Union, a view to 2060

Migration and demographic disparities in macro-regions of the European Union, a view to 2060

Diversity of employment biographies and prospects of middle-aged welfare recipients

Fertility decline and age-structure in China and India

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