Regional Multihazard Risk-Assessment Method for Overhead Transmission Line Structures Based on Failure Rate and a Bayesian Updating Scheme

Zekavati, Ali Asghar; Jafari, Mohammad-Ali; Mahmoudi, Amir

doi:10.1061/(asce)cf.1943-5509.0001777

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 42 publications

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“…A structure must operate at a serviceability level for a period of time associated with a certain reliability indicator. The reliability indicator is used as a metric to express the safety level of the system and is available in the literature expressed as the number of times when the structural demand is exceeded by the structural capacity considering the corresponding uncertainties (confidence factor, index β) [3,4], the number of times that an interest threshold is exceeded per year (exceedance demand rate) [5,6], or the number of times per year that structure failure is expected (mean annual failure rate) [7,8]. Reliability indicators help mitigate risk in the retrofit of existing structures or design of new systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost–Benefit Assessment of Offshore Structures Considering Structural Deterioration

Tolentino

2023

JMSE

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Offshore facilities are essential infrastructure systems for many nations because their partial or total interruption causes diverse consequences in the economic, political, environmental, and social sectors. With the aim to preserve such structures at acceptable reliability levels, an approach is proposed to calculate the optimal instant of time in which inspection and maintenance works can be performed. The optimal time instant is estimated following the cost benefit criterion (CB) considering the cost of inspection, repair and failure. The inspection cost is given by an inspection quality, while fatigue crack size at different critical joints is calculated to estimate repair costs. In this paper, the concept of demand exceedance rates is introduced to evaluate the failure cost. Uncertainties related to both storm and operational waves are considered. The optimal time instant is associated with the lowest cost of inspection, repair and failure. For this purpose, the approach is exemplified in an offshore jacket structure situated in the Gulf of Mexico. The optimal instant of time corresponds to 6 years after the offshore jacket installation. If maintenance actions are implemented every six years during the lifespan of the system, an economic reduction of 58% is achieved, compared to the case in which no inspection and maintenance works are performed over time. The approach helps decision-makers ensure the best use of economic resources.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost–Benefit Assessment of Offshore Structures Considering Structural Deterioration

Tolentino

2023

JMSE

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Risk Reliability Assessment of Transmission Lines under Multiple Natural Disasters in Modern Power Systems

Fan,

Zeng,

Ming

et al. 2023

Energies

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Climate change has led to more frequent extreme weather events, and various natural disasters have posed risks to the operation of transmission lines. Line failures caused by natural disasters are unpredictable and bring additional maintenance work. Therefore, this paper proposes a transmission line risk reliability assessment method that considers the combined effects of multiple natural disasters. This method establishes a theory of disaster risk quantification that considers the probability of the occurrence of the risk, the degree of the impact of the risk on the line, and the severity of the risk disaster. The risk weights for different natural disasters are calculated by combining a hierarchical analysis and entropy weighting methods. The example of a transmission line risk assessment under the combined effects of multiple natural disasters for a Sichuan region verifies the proposed method’s effectiveness. The results show that the method effectively assesses the operational risk to transmission lines under the combined effects of natural disasters. The assessment results can be used for disaster recovery and line risk prevention.

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Regional Multihazard Risk-Assessment Method for Overhead Transmission Line Structures Based on Failure Rate and a Bayesian Updating Scheme

Cited by 2 publications

References 42 publications

Cost–Benefit Assessment of Offshore Structures Considering Structural Deterioration

Cost–Benefit Assessment of Offshore Structures Considering Structural Deterioration

Risk Reliability Assessment of Transmission Lines under Multiple Natural Disasters in Modern Power Systems

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