Risk Reliability Assessment of Transmission Lines under Multiple Natural Disasters in Modern Power Systems

Abstract

Climate change has led to more frequent extreme weather events, and various natural disasters have posed risks to the operation of transmission lines. Line failures caused by natural disasters are unpredictable and bring additional maintenance work. Therefore, this paper proposes a transmission line risk reliability assessment method that considers the combined effects of multiple natural disasters. This method establishes a theory of disaster risk quantification that considers the probability of the occurrence of the risk, the degree of the impact of the risk on the line, and the severity of the risk disaster. The risk weights for different natural disasters are calculated by combining a hierarchical analysis and entropy weighting methods. The example of a transmission line risk assessment under the combined effects of multiple natural disasters for a Sichuan region verifies the proposed method’s effectiveness. The results show that the method effectively assesses the operational risk to transmission lines under the combined effects of natural disasters. The assessment results can be used for disaster recovery and line risk prevention.

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“…Their focus was on the assessment of damage to distribution lines using 1000 synthetic-generated hurricane scenarios over Houston for 24 h. The percentage of failure in ten distribution lines was estimated [3]. A similar approach was used by Fan et al in 2023 while assessing the risk reliability of overhead transmission lines under extreme typhoon winds [12]. In 2020, Ghorbanzadeh et al investigated the impact of hurricane Michael (2018) on the number of power outages reported by residents in the city of Tallahassee [13].…”

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“…In order to prevent overloading, the designed nominal load capacity of the transmission line is set as a fixed value quantity, taking into account the most unfavourable meteorological conditions. Normally, however, such unfavourable weather conditions are rare, so the transmission potential of cable power is not used to its maximum in most cases [3,4].…”