Regional impact assessment on forest structure and functions under climate change—the Brandenburg case study

Lasch, Petra; Lindner, Marcus; Erhard, Markus; Suckow, Felicitas; Wenzel, Arne

doi:10.1016/s0378-1127(02)00051-8

Cited by 103 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…New models and tools are being developed for this purpose, such as the model CO2FIX (Nabuurs et al, 2002;Masera et al, 2003). Other models, developed for describing forest development in general, can also be used for carbon sequestration analysis; examples are FORSKA (Prentice and Leemans, 1990;Prentice et al, 1993;Lasch et al, 1999;Lasch et al, 2002), FORECAST Seely et al, 1999;Seely et al, 2002) and CENTURY (Parton et al, 1987;Jiang et al, 2002;Song and Woodcock, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many studies have been done at a stand level (Karjalainen, 1996b;Liski et al, 2001;Minkkinen et al, 2001;Pussinen et al, 2002;Spinney and Prisley, 2002), often to investigate different management regimes in detail. Studies have also been carried out at a regional level (Hoen and Solberg, 1994;Lasch et al, 1999;Lasch et al, 2002;Song and Woodcock, 2003), for countries (Turner et al, 1995;Karjalainen, 1996a;Krankina et al, 1996;Ågren and Hyvönen, 2003) or even whole continents (Myneni et al, 2001;Cannell, 2003). In modelling the harvest behaviour in carbon studies, mimicking historic levels, keeping an even flow and/or attaining highest possible harvest level are common methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A model for regional analysis of carbon sequestration and timber production

Backéus

Wikström

Lämås

2005

Forest Ecology and Management

106

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The greenhouse effect is one of our most severe current environmental problems. Forests make up large ecosystems and can play an important role in mitigating the emissions of CO 2 , the most important greenhouse gas. Different management regimes affect the ability of forests to sequester carbon. It is important to investigate in what way we best can use forests to mitigate the greenhouse effect. It is also important to study what effect different actions, done to increase carbon sequestration, have on other offsets from forestry, such as the harvest level, the availability of forest biofuel and economic factors.In this study, we present an optimization model for analysis of carbon sequestration in forest biomass and forest products at a local or regional scale. The model consists of an optimizing stand-level simulator, and the solution is found using linear programming. Carbon sequestration was accounted for in terms of carbon price and its value computed as a function of carbon price and the net carbon storage in the forest. The same price was used as a cost for carbon emission originating from deterioration of wood products.We carried out a case study for a 3.2 million hectare boreal forest region in northern Sweden. The result showed that 1.48-2.05 million tonnes of carbon per year was sequestered in the area, depending on what carbon price was used. We conclude that assigning carbon storage a monetary value and removal of carbon in forest products as a cost, increases carbon sequestration in the forest and decreases harvest levels. The effect was largest in areas with low site-quality classes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for regional analysis of carbon sequestration and timber production

Backéus

Wikström

Lämås

2005

Forest Ecology and Management

106

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“…In the southern parts of the Baltic Sea basin, tree growth is strongly water limited (Lasch et al 2002. Here, an increase in temperature but without an increase in precipitation could further exacerbate the water deficit and thus decrease growth.…”

Section: Impacts On Forest Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-economic Impacts—Forestry and Agriculture

Krug¹,

Eriksson

Heidecke³

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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Climate change affects the vulnerability and productivity of forestry and agricultural systems, predominantly by changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. Indirect impacts are altered risk of damage, for example, by longer periods of drought stress and other biotic and abiotic disturbances. While southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea basin are likely to experience a net impact of climate change that is negative for production, northern and western regions are likely to experience a general increase in production. As a result, land-use potentials will change and will foster adaptation and mitigation measures. In the northern region, forest management adaptation may lead to substantial yield increases, while in the south management, adaptation may be required to counter deteriorating conditions. Comparable conclusions can be drawn for agricultural management: if adaptation potentials are fully exploited, substantial yield increases can be expected for certain crop species. In the southern areas and for certain species, deteriorating conditions and possibly increasing climatic variability are projected. Both climate change impacts and human responses will affect socio-economic conditions in the Baltic Sea basin.

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“…It was applied in different studies and validated across a wide range of forest sites (Bugmann et al, 1997;Lasch et al, 2002Lasch et al, , 2005. It describes processes based on ecophysiological experiments, long term studies of stand development, and physiological modelling (Haxeltine 454 M. Gutsch et al / Forest Systems (2011) 20(3), 453-563 and Prentice, 1996) on tree and stand level.…”

Section: The Forest Growth Model 4cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management of mixed oak-pine forests under climate

et al. 2011

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The process-based forest growth model 4C (FORESEE -FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) was used to analyze the growth of a mixed oak-pine stand [Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl., Pinus sylvestris L.]. The oak-pine stand is typical for the ongoing forest transformation in the north-eastern lowlands. The pine and the oak trees are 104 and 9 years old, respectively. Three different management scenarios (A, B, C) with different thinning grades and a thinning interval of five years were simulated. Every management scenario was simulated under three different climate scenarios (0K, 2K, 3K) compiled by the regional statistical climate model STAR 2.0 (PIK). For each climate scenario 100 different realisations were generated. The realisations of the climate scenarios encompass the period 2036-2060 and exhibit an increase of mean annual temperature of zero, two and three Kelvin until 2060, respectively. We selected 9 model outputs concerning biomass, growth and harvest which were aggregated to a single total performance index (TPI). The TPI was used to assess the management scenarios with regard to three management objectives (carbon sequestration, intermediate, timber yield) under climate change until 2060.We found out that management scenario A led to the highest TPI concerning the carbon sequestration objective and management scenario C performed best concerning the two other objectives. The analysis of variance in the growth related model outputs showed an increase of climate uncertainty with increasing climate warming. Interestingly, the increase of climate induced uncertainty is much higher from 2 to 3 K than from 0 to 2 K.Key words: mixed oak-pine stand; forest growth model 4C; climate change; uncertainty; management; multi-criteria evaluation. Resumen Gestión de bosques mixtos de pino y roble en escenarios de incertidumbre climáticaSe ha utilizado un modelo forestal basado en procesos denominado 4C (FORESEE -FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) para analizar el crecimiento de un masa forestal con mezcla de Quercus petraea y Pinus sylvestris. Ésta es una mezcla típica en las áreas de transformación forestal en las zonas bajas del noreste de Alemania. Los pinos y los robles tienen una edad de 104 y 9 años respectivamente. Se simularon tres escenarios diferentes de manejo (A, B, C) con diferentes grados de claras e intervalos de clara de 5 años. Cada escenario de manejo fue simulado bajo tres escenarios climáticos (0K, 2K, 3K) los cuales se calcularon por el modelo regional climático estadístico STAR 2.0 (PIK). Se generaron 100 diferentes realizaciones para cada escenario climático. Las realizaciones incluyen el período 2036-2060 y presentan un aumento de la temperatura anual de cero, dos y tres grados Kelvin hasta el año 2060, respectivamente. Seleccionamos 9 salidas del modelo relacionadas con la biomasa, crecimiento y rendimiento que se combinaron en un único índice de rendimiento total (TPI, total performance index). El TPI fue analizado para investigar los escenarios de manejo con res...

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Regional impact assessment on forest structure and functions under climate change—the Brandenburg case study

Cited by 103 publications

References 21 publications

A model for regional analysis of carbon sequestration and timber production

A model for regional analysis of carbon sequestration and timber production

Socio-economic Impacts—Forestry and Agriculture

Management of mixed oak-pine forests under climate

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