Management of mixed oak-pine forests under climate

Abstract

The process-based forest growth model 4C (FORESEE -FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) was used to analyze the growth of a mixed oak-pine stand [Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl., Pinus sylvestris L.]. The oak-pine stand is typical for the ongoing forest transformation in the north-eastern lowlands. The pine and the oak trees are 104 and 9 years old, respectively. Three different management scenarios (A, B, C) with different thinning grades and a thinning interval of five years were simulated. Every management scenario was simulated under three different climate scenarios (0K, 2K, 3K) compiled by the regional statistical climate model STAR 2.0 (PIK). For each climate scenario 100 different realisations were generated. The realisations of the climate scenarios encompass the period 2036-2060 and exhibit an increase of mean annual temperature of zero, two and three Kelvin until 2060, respectively. We selected 9 model outputs concerning biomass, growth and harvest which were aggregated to a single total performance index (TPI). The TPI was used to assess the management scenarios with regard to three management objectives (carbon sequestration, intermediate, timber yield) under climate change until 2060.We found out that management scenario A led to the highest TPI concerning the carbon sequestration objective and management scenario C performed best concerning the two other objectives. The analysis of variance in the growth related model outputs showed an increase of climate uncertainty with increasing climate warming. Interestingly, the increase of climate induced uncertainty is much higher from 2 to 3 K than from 0 to 2 K.Key words: mixed oak-pine stand; forest growth model 4C; climate change; uncertainty; management; multi-criteria evaluation. Resumen Gestión de bosques mixtos de pino y roble en escenarios de incertidumbre climáticaSe ha utilizado un modelo forestal basado en procesos denominado 4C (FORESEE -FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) para analizar el crecimiento de un masa forestal con mezcla de Quercus petraea y Pinus sylvestris. Ésta es una mezcla típica en las áreas de transformación forestal en las zonas bajas del noreste de Alemania. Los pinos y los robles tienen una edad de 104 y 9 años respectivamente. Se simularon tres escenarios diferentes de manejo (A, B, C) con diferentes grados de claras e intervalos de clara de 5 años. Cada escenario de manejo fue simulado bajo tres escenarios climáticos (0K, 2K, 3K) los cuales se calcularon por el modelo regional climático estadístico STAR 2.0 (PIK). Se generaron 100 diferentes realizaciones para cada escenario climático. Las realizaciones incluyen el período 2036-2060 y presentan un aumento de la temperatura anual de cero, dos y tres grados Kelvin hasta el año 2060, respectivamente. Seleccionamos 9 salidas del modelo relacionadas con la biomasa, crecimiento y rendimiento que se combinaron en un único índice de rendimiento total (TPI, total performance index). El TPI fue analizado para investigar los escenarios de manejo con res...

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