BackgroundForests have always played an important role in agreeing on accounting rules during the past two decades of international climate policy development. Starting from activity-based gross–net accounting of selected forestry activities to mandatory accounting against a baseline—rules have changed quite rapidly and with significant consequences for accounted credits and debits. Such changes have direct consequences on incentives for climate-investments in forestry. There have also been strong arguments not to include forests into the accounting system by considering large uncertainties, procedural challenges and a fear of unearned credits corrupting the overall accounting system, among others. This paper reflects the development of respective accounting approaches and reviews the progress made on core challenges and resulting incentives.Main textThe historic development of forest management accounting rules is analysed in the light of the Paris Agreement. Pros and cons of different approaches are discussed with specific focus on the challenge to maintain integrity of the accounting approach and on resulting incentives for additional human induced investments to increase growth for future substitution and increased C storage by forest management. The review is solely based on scientific publications and official IPCC and UNFCC documents. Some rather political statements of non-scientific stakeholders are considered to reflect criticism. Such sources are indicated accordingly. Remaining and emerging requirements for an accounting system for post 2030 are highlighted.ConclusionsThe Paris Agreement is interpreted as a “game changer” for the role of forests in climate change mitigation. Many countries rely on forests in their NDCs to achieve their self-set targets. In fact, the agreement “to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century” puts pressure on the entire land sector to contribute to overall GHG emission reductions. This also concerns forests as a resource for the bio-based economy and wood products, and for increasing carbon reservoirs. By discussing the existing elements of forest accounting rules and conditions for establishing an accounting system post 2030, it is concluded that core requirements like factoring out direct human-induced from indirect human-induced and natural impacts on managed lands, a facilitation of incentives for management changes and providing safeguards for the integrity of the accounting system are not sufficiently secured by currently discussed accounting rules. A responsibility to fulfil these basic requirements is transferred to Nationally Determined Contributions. Increased incentives for additional human induced investments are not stipulated by the accounting approach but rather by the political decision to make use of the substitution effect and potential net removals from LULUCF to contribute to self-set targets.
BackgroundFollowing recent discussions, there is hope that a mechanism for reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) will be agreed by the Parties of the UNFCCC at their 15th meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 as an eligible action to prevent climate changes and global warming in post-2012 commitment periods. Countries introducing a REDD-regime in order to generate benefits need to implement sound monitoring and reporting systems and specify the associated uncertainties. The principle of conservativeness addresses the problem of estimation errors and requests the reporting of reliable minimum estimates (RME). Here the potential to generate benefits from applying a REDD-regime is proposed with reference to sampling and non-sampling errors that influence the reliability of estimated activity data and emission factors.ResultsA framework for calculating carbon benefits by including assessment errors is developed. Theoretical, sample based considerations as well as a simulation study for five selected countries with low to high deforestation and degradation rates show that even small assessment errors (5% and less) may outweigh successful efforts to reduce deforestation and degradation.ConclusionThe generation of benefits from REDD is possible only in situations where assessment errors are carefully controlled.
BackgroundUnmanaged or old-growth forests are of paramount importance for carbon sequestration and thus for the mitigation of climate change among further implications, e.g. biodiversity aspects. Still, the importance of those forests for climate change mitigation compared to managed forests is under controversial debate. We evaluate the adequacy of referring to CO2 flux measurements alone and include external impacts on growth (nitrogen immissions, increasing temperatures, CO2 enrichment, changed precipitation patterns) for an evaluation of central European forests in this context.ResultsWe deduce that the use of CO2 flux measurements alone does not allow conclusions on a superiority of unmanaged to managed forests for mitigation goals. This is based on the critical consideration of uncertainties and the application of system boundaries. Furthermore, the consideration of wood products for material and energetic substitution obviously overrules the mitigation potential of unmanaged forests. Moreover, impacts of nitrogen immissions, CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere, increasing temperatures and changed precipitation patterns obviously lead to a meaningful increase in growth, even in forests of higher age.ConclusionsAn impact of unmanaged forests on climate change mitigation cannot be valued by CO2 flux measurements alone. Further research is needed on cause and effect relationships between management practices and carbon stocks in different compartments of forest ecosystems in order to account for human-induced changes. Unexpected growth rates in old-growth forests – managed or not – can obviously be related to external impacts and additionally to management impacts. This should lead to the reconsideration of forest management strategies.
Background: Site-vegetation relations of Vachellia erioloba, Faidherbia albida, Euclea pseudebenus and Tamarix usneoides in two contrasting locations in the Namib Desert (Namibia) were evaluated with the goal to relate soil water availability to the occurrence of trees under hyper-arid conditions. Methods: Plant water potentials were measured using a pressure chamber in the field. Pre-dawn water potentials were assessed to reflect the soil water potential of the rhizosphere. Midday water potentials were measured to assess the strongest negative water potential applied by the sample trees. Results: Pre-dawn water potentials and midday water potentials indicated access to soil water in the rhizosphere and by this, provide an explanation for an occurrence of V. erioloba within the extreme environmental conditions of sand dunes in the Namib Desert. Diurnal ranges seem to reflect more and less suitable stands, in terms of soil water availability, within the sampling sites. While the impact of the ephemeral Kuiseb river on soil water availability was assessed through the four species' plant-internal water relations, comparable pre-dawn water potentials of V. erioloba at both sites indicate soil water availability also in the dunes of Namibrand. The extreme midday water potentials of the dune plants possibly show the upper limit of tolerance for V. erioloba. Conclusions: The preliminary data provide an explanation of the occurrence and distribution of the investigated species in beds of ephemeral rivers and on dunes under the hyper-arid climatic conditions of the Namib Desert and qualify suitability within the assessed sites. Understanding the plant-physiological processes and assessing the plant-internal water potential provides a valuable tool to evaluate soil water availability within the rhizosphere and to describe an adaptation potential of investigated species. The comparability of pre-dawn water potentials at both sites indicates unexpected soil water availability within lower parts of the dunes of Namibrand. Further research needs are derived concerning the origin and distribution of such soil water. These species in these specific tree-environments are understudied and little published, thus the results support an improved understanding of the ecology in arid environments.
Evolution has traditionally been a historical field of study and predicting evolution has long been considered challenging or even impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being made and used in many situations in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Because every field uses their own language and makes predictions from their background, researchers are not always aware of the breadth of evolutionary predictions. Evolutionary predictions may be used for several purposes such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or simply to determine how well we understand an evolutionary system. Exactly what aspect of an evolving population we want to predict, such as the most common genotype, average or individual fitness, or population size, depends on the situation. There are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not be recognized as such. Therefore, the main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data that are used to make these predictions in different fields, by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how evolutionary predictions are highly diverse, but nevertheless share a common structure described by the predictive scope, horizon, precision and risk. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation by microorganisms, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, factors that affect the predictability, and how predictions can be used to prevent unwanted evolution or promote beneficial evolution. We hope that this review will increase collaboration between fields by creating a common language for evolutionary predictions.
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